Uncharted Waters: Europe and the end of Nuclear Arms Control
Ulrich Kühn | Turkish Policy Quarterly
In the summer of 2019, the Administration of U.S. President Donald Trump decided to quit the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Since 2014, the United States had been publicly accusing Moscow of violating the Treaty by flight-testing a ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM) in the ranges banned by the INF Treaty (500–5,500 km). Subsequently, U.S. officials expressed concerns that Russia might have started to produce more missiles than needed to sustain a flight-test program. Russia rejected the accusations and tabled a number of counter-allegations against the United States. The diplomatic back-and-forth finally culminated in the U.S.’ decision to withdraw from the Treaty—a decision with potentially wide-ranging repercussions for the security of Europe and East Asia.
Iran Building New Production Hall for Centrifuges in Mountains Near Natanz
Reuters
Iran has begun to build a hall in “the heart of the mountains” near its Natanz nuclear site for making advanced centrifuges, Iran’s nuclear chief said on Tuesday, aiming to replace a production hall at the facility hit by fire in July. Iran said at the time that the fire was the result of sabotage and had caused significant damage that could slow the development of advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges. “Due to the sabotage, it was decided to build a more modern, larger and more comprehensive hall in all dimensions in the heart of the mountain near Natanz. Of course, the work has begun,” said Ali Akbar Salehi, according to state TV. Natanz is the centrepiece of Iran’s enrichment programme, which Tehran says is for peaceful purposes. Western intelligence agencies and the UN’s nuclear watchdog (IAEA) believe Iran had a coordinated, clandestine nuclear arms programme that it halted in 2003. Tehran denies ever seeking nuclear weapons.
Triangles of Instability: Nuclear Dilemmas and how They Feed Into Each Other
Abhijnan Rej | Diplomat
The Pentagon’s recently published report on China’s military capabilities highlights American concerns about the country’s growing nuclear arsenal and delivery systems, at a time when key nuclear dyads are adopting increasingly competitive postures. That there has been considerable churn in the India-China relationship over the past few months is evident. The Trump Administration has also insisted that Beijing participate in a three-way New START arms control talks along with Moscow — the U.S.-Russia New START Treaty is set to expire early next year — though it appears to have eased back on that demand more recently. Along with growing speculation about India’s nuclear capabilities and strategic intent vis-à-vis Pakistan, these independent developments highlight the complex interlocking problems linking five out of the nine (de jure or de facto) nuclear powers.
IAEA Inspects One of Two Sites in Iran After Long Stand-Off
Reuters
Iran has let the UN nuclear watchdog inspect one of the two sites it agreed last week to grant access to after a protracted standoff, while Tehran’s stockpile of enriched uranium has risen further, quarterly reports by the agency said on Friday. The International Atomic Energy Agency inspected one of the sites and took environmental samples there, one of the two reports obtained by Reuters said, referring to samples aimed at detecting traces of nuclear material that may have been present. The agency’s inspectors will visit the other site “later in September 2020 on a date already agreed with Iran, to take environmental samples”, the report said. The other report said that Iran’s stock of low-enriched uranium (LEU) rose by 534 kg in the most recent quarter, roughly the same amount as in the previous three months, to 2,105.4 kg.
India Joins Hypersonic Club With Successful Test Flight of Cruise Vehicle
Sarah Zheng | South China Morning Post
India has become the fourth country to successfully flight test hypersonic technology, joining an elite club alongside the U.S., Russia and China with the ability to develop missiles that can travel several times faster than the speed of sound. The Indian defence ministry announced it had conducted the historic flight test of a demonstration vehicle on Monday from an island off Odisha, an eastern coastal state in India. In a statement, the ministry said its hypersonic cruise vehicle with an indigenously developed scramjet engine had reached an altitude of 30km (98,425ft) and travelled at six times the speed of sound. “All the performance parameters have indicated a resounding success of the mission,” the statement said. “On this successful demonstration, the country enters into the hypersonic regime, paving the way for advanced hypersonic vehicles.” The ministry also released a 24-second video of the launch on its website.
Images Suggest North Korea may be Preparing Launch of Submarine Missile, Think Tank Says
CNBC
Satellite imagery of a North Korean shipyard on Friday shows activity suggestive of preparations for a test of a medium-range submarine-launched ballistic missile, a U.S. think tank reported on Friday. The Center for Strategic and International Studies said the images it published on its website of North Korea’s Sinpo shipyard showed several vessels within a secure boat basin, one of which resembled vessels previously used to tow a submersible test stand barge out to sea. It said the activity was “suggestive, but not conclusive, of preparations for an upcoming test of a Pukguksong-3 submarine launched ballistic missile from the submersible test stand barge.” North Korea said last October it had successfully test-fired a Pukguksong-3, a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), from the sea as part of efforts to contain external threats and bolster self-defense.