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What a Comparison of U.S. and North Korean Nuclear Policies Reveals About Kim Jong Un’s Efforts to Balance Deterrence and Legitimacy

IN THIS ISSUE: What a Comparison of U.S. and North Korean Nuclear Policies Reveals About Kim Jong Un’s Efforts to Balance Deterrence and Legitimacy, Russia Claims Kyiv Hit its Air Bases, Fires More Missiles, US Unveils High-Tech B-21 Stealth Bomber, Iranian State Media: Construction Begins on Nuclear Plant, China Says U.S. Nuclear Weapons Report is Speculation, Why a New Convention to Protect Nucl

Published on December 6, 2022

What a Comparison of U.S. and North Korean Nuclear Policies Reveals About Kim Jong Un’s Efforts to Balance Deterrence and Legitimacy

Toby Dalton and Kylie Jones | Korea on Point

Within six weeks of each other, North Korea and the United States announced new policies governing their nuclear weapons. North Korea’s took the form of a new law passed by the Supreme People’s Assembly on September 9th, the most significant update to its nuclear policy in almost a decade. The United States’ arrived via a report on the outcome of the nuclear posture review (NPR)...Their situations are mostly beyond comparison, yet the notable similarities and differences between the U.S. and North Korean nuclear documents throw into sharp relief the difficult balancing act Pyongyang aims to achieve with its nuclear arsenal. By choosing to emulate certain aspects of U.S. nuclear policy and diverge from others, North Korea is attempting to simultaneously demonstrate a willingness to escalate a conflict early and asymmetrically with nuclear weapons to deter superior South Korean and U.S. forces while projecting an image of a responsible nuclear possessor that should be accommodated as such in the international system.

Russia Claims Kyiv Hit its Air Bases, Fires More Missiles

Jamey Keaton | Associated Press

Ukrainian drones struck two air bases deep inside Russian territory, the Kremlin said Monday, shortly before Russian forces unleashed a massive missile barrage in Ukraine that struck homes and buildings and killed civilians. The unprecedented attack in Russia threatened a major escalation of the nine-month war because it hit an airfield housing bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons. President Vladimir Putin has threatened to use all available means to defend his land, a remark many have interpreted to include nuclear weapons.

US Unveils High-Tech B-21 Stealth Bomber

The Defense Post

The United States on Friday unveiled the B-21 Raider, a high-tech stealth bomber that can carry nuclear and conventional weapons and is designed to be able to fly without a crew on board. The slickly choreographed ceremony at B-21 manufacturer Northrop Grumman’s facility in Palmdale, California opened with the US national anthem as older bombers roared over a crowd that included top US officials.

Iranian State Media: Construction Begins on Nuclear Plant

Associated Press

Iran on Saturday began construction on a new nuclear power plant in the country’s southwest, Iranian state TV announced, amid tensions with the U.S. over sweeping sanctions imposed after Washington pulled out of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear deal with world powers.…The announcement of Karoon’s construction came less than two weeks after Iran said it had begun producing enriched uranium at 60% purity at the country’s underground Fordo nuclear facility. The move is seen as a significant addition to the country’s nuclear program.

China Says U.S. Nuclear Weapons Report is Speculation

Reuters 

China's defence ministry on Tuesday dismissed a Pentagon report about the pace of its nuclear weapons programme as unfair "gesticulation" and speculation. The Pentagon said in a report last month that China would likely have a stockpile of 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035 if it continues with its current pace of its nuclear buildup. The figure underscores mounting U.S. concerns about China's intentions for its expanding nuclear arsenal, even though the projections do not suggest China is accelerating the pace of its already-brisk warhead development.…Responding to the report, China's defence ministry said the United States was "gesticulating and absurdly guessing about the modernisation of China's nuclear forces".

Why a New Convention to Protect Nuclear Installations in War is a Bad Idea

Michal Onderco and Clara Egger | The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Although concerns about the protection of nuclear sites in war settings are wholly justified, the cure proposed might be worse than the disease. First, calls for a new regime reflect a partial reading of the legal and political mechanisms surrounding the protection of nuclear installations during a conflict. Second, because international law and political commitments already protect against attacks on nuclear installations, a new convention could add undesirable complexity with countries picking and choosing their commitments, which ultimately would weaken existing protections…Rather than looking for creative solutions to non-existing problems, the international community should focus on leveraging existing international legal commitments to ensure Russia complies with its own commitments.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.