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What Biden Should Know About North Korea’s New Plans

IN THIS ISSUE: What Biden Should Know About North Korea’s New Plans, As Biden Takes Office, Key Nuclear and Missile Defense Decisions Loom, North Korea’s Kim Could be Planning Missile Launch to Welcome Biden Administration, Europe Sees a Narrow Window for Biden to Revive Iran Nuclear Deal, Missile Defense Costs to Soar $5B A Year: CBO, Hypersonic Superweapons are a Mirage, New Analysis Says

Published on January 19, 2021

What Biden Should Know About North Korea’s New Plans

Ankit Panda | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Despite North Korea’s low profile throughout the coronavirus pandemic so far, the country’s nuclear and missile programs have hummed along. Now, as U.S. President-elect Joe Biden prepares to enter the White House, North Korea may accelerate its plans. Last week, North Korea convened the Eighth Party Congress of its ruling party, only the second such event in the past four decades; the Seventh Party Congress took place in 2016 after a thirty-six-year gap. These party congresses represent the authoritative apex of North Korean state decisionmaking and cover everything from leadership matters and economic policymaking to military plans. At the most recent gathering, Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un outlined a set of ambitious, wide-ranging, and multifaceted nuclear modernization plans—the most extensive such plans that North Korea has presented in years. 

As Biden Takes Office, Key Nuclear and Missile Defense Decisions Loom

Aaron Mehta | Defense News

When U.S. President-elect Joe Biden takes office, his national security team will have to work quickly to make calls on a number of key nuclear and missile defense decisions, according to a top outgoing Pentagon official. Rob Soofer, who has served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and missile defense policy since early in the Trump administration, told Defense News in a Jan. 5 interview that he expects a wide-ranging review of nuclear and missile defense issues from the new administration. But he is hopeful that technical reviews needed to keep programs on track will not be delayed in the process. “Literally everything is on the table, so to speak,” Soofer said, noting there is a limited window before the budget must be produced, perhaps by mid-March.

North Korea’s Kim Could be Planning Missile Launch to Welcome Biden Administration

Simon Denyer and Joby Warrick | Washington Post

North Korea appears to be taking steps toward a new test of a powerful submarine-launched missile, U.S. weapons experts said, as it steadily dials up the pressure on President-elect Joe Biden. Last week, a beaming Kim Jong Un presided over another demonstration of his country’s military might in a nighttime parade in Pyongyang, kicked off with a fireworks display. Now, it appears he might be planning a very different fireworks display to greet the incoming U.S. president. On show at the parade was a new ballistic missile designed to be launched from a submarine, with state media over-enthusiastically describing it as “the world’s most powerful weapon.” Satellite evidence has emerged of work at a naval base in the port city of Nampo on the country’s west coast that suggests preparations could be underway for a test launch of a similar missile.

Europe Sees a Narrow Window for Biden to Revive Iran Nuclear Deal

Loveday Morris and Erin Cunningham | Washington Post

Washington's European allies hope the incoming Biden administration will take swift steps to restore the Iran nuclear deal amid mounting pressures, including Tehran's boost in uranium enrichment and elections later this year that could usher in a more hard-line government. President-elect Joe Biden had expressed continued support for the pact forged while he was vice president in the Obama administration, which granted some sanctions relief to Iran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. Biden's nominee for deputy secretary of state, Wendy Sherman, helped hammer out the Iran deal in 2015. But it's unclear how receptive Iran's leadership remains to renegotiate with world powers after President Trump pulled out. And Europe sees a tight window of opportunity following the president-elect's inauguration on Wednesday.

Missile Defense Costs to Soar $5B A Year: CBO

Theresa Hitchens | Breaking Defense

Pentagon investment in missile defense from 2020 through 2029 may total a whopping $176 billion, says the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in a new study. This estimate represents a $50 billion increase from CBO’s previous 2017-2026 missile defense cost review — or $5 billion per year. That 10-year estimate does not include the costs of new DoD efforts to track and defend against hypersonic missiles, however, because CBO could not find enough data to do so, the study, “Costs of Implementing Recommendations of the 2019 Missile Defense Review,” finds. Instead, that 10-year estimate only covers DoD missile defense programs included in the 2020 budget request. Where possible, CBO estimated additional costs that would stem from the Trump administration’s 2019 Missile Defense Review, as mandated by Congress in the 2019 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).

Hypersonic Superweapons are a Mirage, New Analysis Says

William J. Broad | New York Times

Military experts call hypersonic warheads the next big thing in intercontinental warfare. They see the emerging arms, which can deliver nuclear or conventional munitions, as zipping along at up to five miles a second while zigzagging through the atmosphere to outwit early-warning satellites and some interceptors. The superfast weapons, experts say, lend themselves to surprise attacks. President Trump has bragged about his “super-dupers,” even referring to the planned weapon as “hydrosonic,” a brand of electric toothbrush. Last year, his budget asked  the Pentagon to spend $3.2 billion on hypersonic arms research, up $600 million from the previous year’s request. And as President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. takes command of the nation’s military, he will have to consider whether to sustain the defense work undertaken in the Trump years.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.