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What the Five Nuclear Weapons States Can Do to Contain Nuclear Risks

IN THIS ISSUE: Trump Administration Discussed Conducting First US Nuclear Test in Decades, US Plans New Arms Talks Aimed at Limiting Russian, Chinese, and US Nuclear Warheads, North Korea's Kim, in First Appearance in Weeks, Vows to Bolster Nuclear ‘Deterrence’

Published on May 26, 2020

What the Five Nuclear Weapons States Can Do to Contain Nuclear Risks

Tong Zhao | Center for Global Security Research, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

The international debate about nuclear risk has catalogued many different kinds of risk and danger. But two stand out as especially salient: the risk of the nuclear arms race and the risk of employment of nuclear weapons arising out of a conventional conflict. The five nuclear weapon states (NWS) have a special responsibility to contain these risks. They also have a responsibility to try to manage the risk posed by nuclear proliferation. Constructive action by the five is both necessary and possible. But they face many challenges to such action, including the limits on their ability to cooperate given their wariness of each other.

Trump Administration Discussed Conducting First US Nuclear Test in Decades

John Hudson and Paul Sonne | Washington Post

The Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992 in a move that would have far-reaching consequences for relations with other nuclear powers and reverse a decades-long moratorium on such actions, said a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the deliberations. The matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies May 15, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests — an assertion that has not been substantiated by publicly available evidence and that both countries have denied. The meeting did not conclude with any agreement to conduct a test, but a senior administration official said the proposal is “very much an ongoing conversation.”

US Plans New Arms Talks Aimed at Limiting Russian, Chinese, and US Nuclear Warheads

Michael Gordon | Wall Street Journal

President Trump’s new arms-control negotiator is planning to meet with his Russian counterpart soon to discuss a new U.S. proposal for a far-reaching accord to limit all Russian, Chinese and U.S. nuclear warheads, U.S. officials disclosed Thursday. The talks will mark the first time the Trump administration has opened negotiations on an agreement to replace the New START accord, which covers Russian and U.S. long-range nuclear arms and is due to expire in February. The new U.S. proposal is far more ambitious than the 2010 New START accord, not least because it seeks to convince China to join the negotiations. Critics warn the Trump administration strategy amounts to an overreach—and could lead to a deadlock that will undermine the existing arms-control framework, which has already begun to fray.

North Korea's Kim, in First Appearance in Weeks, Vows to Bolster Nuclear ‘Deterrence’

Hyonhee Shin | Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un hosted a meeting to discuss the country’s nuclear capabilities, state media said on Sunday, marking his first appearance in three weeks after a previous absence sparked global speculation about his health. Amid stalled denuclearization talks with the United States, the meeting discussed measures to bolster North Korea’s armed forces and “reliably contain the persistent big or small military threats from the hostile forces,” state news agency KCNA said. The meeting discussed “increasing the nuclear war deterrence of the country and putting the strategic armed forces on a high alert operation,” adopting “crucial measures for considerably increasing the firepower strike ability of the artillery pieces,” it said.

European States Vow to Stay in Open Skies Treaty Despite US Exit

Aaron Mehta and Lorne Cook | Defense News

Ten European Union countries on Friday expressed regret at U.S. plans to withdraw from the Open Skies treaty and vowed to uphold the pact, as NATO envoys met to discuss developments. President Donald Trump said Thursday that Russian violations make it untenable for the United States to stay in the Open Skies Treaty. In a joint statement, the foreign ministries of Belgium, the Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden said the pact “is a crucial element of the confidence-building framework that was created over the past decades in order to improve transparency and security across the Euro-Atlantic area.”

Germany Underscores Commitment to US Nuclear Deterrence

Deutsche Welle

Germany will continue to make an “appropriate contribution” to deterrent NATO nuclear capability, said federal government spokesman Steffen Seibert on Monday, after senior Social Democrats had demanded the removal of US bombs. The United States reputedly has as many as 150 nuclear devices stored in Europe — at the Büchel air base in western Germany, in Belgium, in the Netherlands and in Italy — for carriage on warplanes, including aging German Tornados. Over the weekend, two senior Social Democrats — nominally in coalition with Merkel's conservatives — Rolf Mützenich and Norbert Walter-Borjans called for nuclear removals from Büchel in the lead-up to federal elections due in 2021. Seibert on Monday said Germany, like NATO, envisaged a world without nuclear weapons, but in the meantime adhered to NATO's nuclear deterrence concept, noting this was anchored in the Merkel coalition's 2018 agreement.

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