Edition

What’s at Stake in the Iran Nuclear Talks

IN THIS ISSUE: What’s at Stake in the Iran Nuclear Talks, N.Korea Looks to Risky Pre-Fuelled Missiles to Reduce Launch Time, Going Ballistic, In Russia Talks, US Floats Deal to Limit Missiles and War Games, Yoon Suk-Yeol Backs ‘Preemptive Strike’ to Stop North Korean Hypersonic Attacks, A Look at How Countries Go Nuclear — and Why Some Do Not

Published on January 11, 2022

What’s at Stake in the Iran Nuclear Talks

George Perkovich and Karim Sadjadpour | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Nuclear talks with Iran have resumed in Vienna, after former president Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018. Below, Karim Sadjadpour, a Carnegie senior fellow and Iran expert, and George Perkovich, the vice president for studies for Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program, discuss the latest developments and what’s at stake in the revived talks.

N.Korea Looks to Risky Pre-Fuelled Missiles to Reduce Launch Time 

Josh Smith | Reuters

North Korea’s recent claims of testing hypersonic weapons overshadowed its pursuit of a potentially risky rocket fuel system that analysts say could allow the nuclear-armed state to deploy and launch its missiles faster during a war. Most of the country’s largest ballistic missiles use liquid fuel, which typically requires them to be loaded with propellant at their launch site before they can be fired—a time-consuming step that makes them easier to spot and destroy. Pyongyang has also pursued solid-fuel technology, but so far most of those engines have been used on smaller, short-range missiles. Recent tests suggest North Korean military scientists are pursuing a third option: a “missile fuel ampoule” system to seal the liquid propellant and oxidizer tanks within the missile's airframe, allowing them to be fuelled at the factory and ready to use.

Going Ballistic

Michael Young | Diwan

In an interview, Ankit Panda discusses reports that China is helping Saudi Arabia to develop a missile program. . . . The reported transfer represents a lamentable lapse in China’s adherence to its previous commitments concerning the transfer of missile technology and it underscores the rapidly shifting security environment in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has been on a military spending spree in the last decade, ranking fifth and sixth in global defense spending in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Moreover, under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s direction, Riyadh has emphasized self-sufficiency in a number of economic domains, as well as in defense matters. A capability to mass-produce ballistic missiles coheres with these broader dynamics in Saudi national strategy.

In Russia Talks, US Floats Deal to Limit Missiles and War Games

Joe Gould | Defense News

In talks with Russia on Monday, U.S. officials raised the possibility of limiting missile deployments in Eastern Europe and the size and scope of its military exercises, if Russia reciprocates, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman told reporters afterward. Sherman met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov on Monday in the first of three sets of bilateral meetings set for this week. NATO talks with Russia follow, and then talks between Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe ― which are expected to touch on the American proposals.

Yoon Suk-Yeol Backs ‘Preemptive Strike’ to Stop North Korean Hypersonic Attacks

Jeongmin Kim | NK News

North Korean hypersonic missiles aimed at the South in the event of conflict should be taken out with a “preemptive strike,” presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol said Tuesday, hours after North Korea conducted its second missile test of the new year. Yoon’s remarks were based on a hypothetical combat scenario following the DPRK’s alleged hypersonic missile test last week. Tuesday morning’s missile also reached hypersonic speeds of Mach 10 and demonstrated “advancement” over last week’s test, according to the ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff.

A Look at How Countries Go Nuclear — and Why Some Do Not

Peter Dizikes | MIT News

In 1993, South Africa announced to a largely surprised world that it had built nuclear weapons in the 1980s, before dismantling its arsenal. For the first time, a country outside of the elite world powers had obtained nuclear capabilities while keeping matters a secret from almost everyone else. To this day, South Africa remains the only country to have pulled off that exact trick. Other countries have gone nuclear in other ways. A half-dozen countries with more economic and political clout than South Africa have built weapons on their own timetables. Three other countries — Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea — have developed nuclear weapons while being supported by larger allies. And many wealthy countries, including Australia, Brazil, Germany, Japan, and South Korea, have chosen not to pursue weapons programs.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.