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Why the AUKUS Submarine Deal Is Bad for Nonproliferation—And What to Do About It

IN THIS ISSUE: Why the AUKUS Submarine Deal Is Bad for Nonproliferation—And What to Do About It, Deciphering Iran’s Nuclear Strategy, Satellite Images Reveal North Korea Expanding Facility Used to Produce Weapons-Grade Uranium, Air Force Secretary Warns of China’s Burgeoning Nuclear Arsenal, Reveals B-21 Detail, Iran Says Nuclear Talks Will Resume Within ‘Next Few Weeks’, Nuclear Modernization Casts Budget Shadow Over Air Force Plans

Published on September 21, 2021

Why the AUKUS Submarine Deal Is Bad for Nonproliferation—And What to Do About It

James Acton | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

In my assessment, the nonproliferation implications of the AUKUS submarine deal are both negative and serious. For Australia to operate nuclear-powered submarines, it will have to become the first non-nuclear-weapon state to exercise a loophole that allows it to remove nuclear material from the inspection system of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). I have no real concerns that Australia will misuse this material itself, but I am concerned that this removal will set a damaging precedent. In the future, would-be proliferators could use naval reactor programs as cover for the development of nuclear weapons—with the reasonable expectation that, because of the Australia precedent, they would not face intolerable costs for doing so.

Deciphering Iran’s Nuclear Strategy

Ariel (Eli) Levite | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

At the heart of international efforts to contain—or, as some may more ambitiously wish, to roll back—Iran’s nuclear ambitions, there are profound shortcomings in the world’s understanding of Tehran’s motivations and strategy. Many experts have written about the Iranian nuclear challenge, and countless practitioners have for two decades aimed to shape its course. Yet only modest systematic efforts have been made so far to reconstruct the core tenets of Tehran’s outlook so as to develop a viable nonproliferation and counterproliferation strategy to moderate its nuclear aims.

Satellite Images Reveal North Korea Expanding Facility Used to Produce Weapons-Grade Uranium

Zachary Cohen | CNN

New satellite images obtained by CNN reveal North Korea is expanding a key facility capable of enriching uranium for nuclear weapons, renovations that likely indicate the country plans to significantly ramp-up production at this once-dormant site in the near future, according to experts who analyzed the photos. Images captured by commercial imaging company Maxar earlier this week show construction is underway at a uranium enrichment plant located within the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Facility complex—changes that could allow North Korea to increase production of weapons-grade nuclear material by as much as 25 percent, Jeffrey Lewis, a weapons expert and professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, told CNN.

Air Force Secretary Warns of China’s Burgeoning Nuclear Arsenal, Reveals B-21 Detail

Marcus Weisgerber | Defense One

China could be heading for a first-strike nuclear capability, the U.S. Air Force secretary said Monday, urging the United States to accelerate its own weapons development to keep pace with Beijing. “If they continue down the path that they seem to be on—to substantially increase their ICBM force—they will have a de facto first-strike capability,” Frank Kendall told reporters at the Air Force Association’s annual conference outside Washington, D.C. But independent nuclear-policy experts noted that even China’s decades-old ICBMs could be “a first-strike weapon,” and challenged Air Force officials to produce evidence that Beijing actually intends to change its “no first use” policy.

Iran Says Nuclear Talks Will Resume Within ‘Next Few Weeks’

Patrick Sykes and Golnar Motevalli | Bloomberg

Iran said multiparty talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal are likely to resume within the next few weeks, after months of delays that raised tensions in the Persian Gulf and left oil traders wondering when the Islamic Republic’s crude is likely to return to markets. Before talks stalled in the lead up to Iran’s June presidential election, European powers, China and Russia—the remaining parties to the beleaguered agreement—had been brokering indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran. They have all been informed of the latest timeline, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh told state-run Islamic Republic News Agency.

Nuclear Modernization Casts Budget Shadow Over Air Force Plans

Theresa Hitchens | Breaking Defense

The fundamental budget challenge facing the Air Force is the “nuclear bow wave” of spending required to modernize its nuclear force structure, with a “major danger” that those costs will make all the service’s other modernization plans untenable, said Lt. Gen. Clinton Hinote, who leads future force development. “There’s no free money, right, so it has to come from somewhere,” he told reporters during the annual Air Force Association conference here. “But if it comes from the top line of the Department of the Air Force, and frankly the Department of Navy, it’s going to crowd out other things, other investments, and it’s going to be very difficult to have a modern Air Force and a modern Space Force, a modern Navy, and recapitalize the nuclear triad. That’s where we are right now.”

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.