Over the last couple days, few capitals have awaited the results of the U.S. presidential election with as much anxiety as Riyadh, particularly its young and ruthless would-be king, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Even though he’s well aware that the U.S.-Saudi relationship may still be regarded as too big and important to fail, an impending victory for Joe Biden means the end of the zone of immunity the Trump administration crafted around Saudi Arabia. The country’s human rights record, its dealings in Yemen, and its reckless efforts to amass influence in its region are likely to emerge as sources of rhetorical tension, particularly with a Biden administration that isn’t looking to invest heavily in the Middle East.
The crown prince has every reason to be worried. He played U.S. President Donald Trump and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and pro-Saudi Middle East advisor, well, convincing them that Saudi willingness to buy billions of dollars in U.S. weapons, oppose Iran, and reach out to Israel mandated allowing the Saudis to do just about anything else in the region they wanted. But a President Joe Biden would be less likely to go along with Saudi Arabia: He has described the country as a pariah, called for ending the “disastrous war” in Yemen, and urged a reassessment of the U.S. relationship with Riyadh. “America’s priorities in the Middle East should be set in Washington, not Riyadh,” Biden told the Council on Foreign Relations last year.
Assuming Tehran is interested in rapprochement and is looking for an agreement on the nuclear issue, especially if it’s accompanied by a Barack Obama-like pledge to inject more balance into U.S. policy and stay out of Saudi Arabia and Iran’s regional games, U.S. regional efforts are likely to roil Riyadh. And with Biden mostly interested in not getting sucked back into the Middle East, the administration may not be prepared to invest all that much time or attention to Saudi Arabia. What impact this distancing might have on Riyadh is unclear.
It might push Saudi Arabia to expand ties with China, especially on the nuclear issue, or perhaps the country could borrow a page from the UAE and accelerate normalization with Israel in an effort to curry favor with Washington. Whatever it does, though, it’s fair to say that under a Biden administration, with its priorities elsewhere, Saudi Arabia won’t be Washington’s darling any longer.
Comments(1)
A rapprochement with Iran is a tilt toward Tehran. Make no mistake, such a move would be be countered. Normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel would be beyond a "gamechanger". It would represent a direct threat to US interests, if and when, Biden would decide to follow the Obama play-book and continue with Iran appeasement. China is holding back and waiting, so is Moscow. Biden might be old, but he certainly is not a fool! When a meeting is called in Egypt (historic Alexandria?) between all the Gulf states (excluding Qatar), Russia and Israel to discuss regional Middle East peace and nuclear non-proliferation; is it your position that President Biden will choose NOT to attend? Of course, he must. The Gulf Arabs and Israel, along with Egypt and others view the prospect of a Biden Administration appeasement policy toward Tehran as extreme. Iran remains a revolutionary, revanchist power and every regional move done by the new Washington team will be seen through the lens of Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign. Continued "maximum pressure" is a must to force Tehran to moderate its complete behavior. But Trump never did establish an alternative to the JCPOA. And for "maximum pressure" to have international backing, a truly far-reaching alternative to the highly-flawed Obama-Biden- Kerry deal must present itself. In fact, the success of a full Saudi normalization with Israel might depend on such an alternative. And It must be on the table at a meeting at Alexandria. A regional approach toward nuclear weapons (inclusive of Israel), within a structure of complete peaceful coexistence between all states of the regions will insure the interests of everyone, including Iran. But for such an approach to work, it must have the support of the G5+1, something Trump failed to realize. Normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel will have far more leverage if it also encompasses a regional alternative to the JCPOA. While "maximum pressure" remains essential, Iran capitulation is hardly a strategy for peace. But either is a Biden policy of Iran appeasement! Let peace be on the agenda at Alexandria Egypt. And afterwards, let the world stand in awe as the Saudi Crown Prince and the Israeli Prime Minister fly together across the Sinai and land at the Tel Aviv airport. It's high time that everyone started thinking out-of-the-box. In these precarious times, peace has become paramount. I believe that given a just alternative to the JCPOA, the people of Iran would agree.
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