Whether Pyongyang has the capacity and the resources for large-scale demobilization and reintegration—and is prepared to implement market reforms that would be required to make the most efficient use of these resources—remains an open question.
In the event a peace and security regime for the Korean Peninsula leads to North Korean agreement to reduce its conventional weapons and equipment, Kim may want to convert portions of the North’s defense industries to production of civilian goods.
The stakes for South Korean President Moon Jae-in could not have been higher when U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met in Hanoi in February 2019. The delicate relationship between Trump and Moon provides important context for their upcoming meeting on Thursday, April 11.
America’s dealmaker-in-chief should shed his illusions of a grand bargain with Kim Jong Un and embrace the art of the possible. For clues, President Trump should look at the experience of the Iran nuclear agreement.
Shortly after the success of The Art of the Deal (1987) made Donald Trump a supposed expert on negotiation, he lobbied the George H.W. Bush administration to put him in charge of arms reduction talks with the Soviet Union.
The United States needs a secretary of state who is tough but pragmatic and who understands that negotiations aren’t zero-sum games but need to be win/win propositions.
It is hard to visualize an enduring peace between North and South Korea that does not include robust measures to reduce the threat of conventional war.
Unpacking the second U.S.-North Korea summit is going to be a long term process but it will be seen as a major turning point—both positively and negatively—on prospects for North Korea’s denuclearization, the extent of inter-Korean détente, and the future of the U.S.-ROK alliance.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has enfeebled an increasingly toothless military alliance between the U.S. and South Korea.
Reducing North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile capabilities may be necessary for permanent peace and security on the peninsula, but it is not enough.