Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The growing weakness of Russia is one reason for the recent escalation in the decades-old conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Peace in the Caucasus and the post-Soviet neighborhood is more attainable if there is an stabilizing international security presence.
At some point, Moscow will have to have a serious conversation with Baku about reassessing the existing arrangements in Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan’s favor.
The Kremlin still has the convincing argument that is military force, but as Russia experiences defeat on the battlefield in Ukraine, its hand is now weaker than it once was.
The European Political Community aims to draw EU’s neighbors into its orbit while leaving enough room to accelerate European integration. Doubts remain over the new platform’s ability to overcome the harsh political realities that sunk similar initiatives over the years.
Azerbaijan’s military action in Armenia has gravely damaged chances of a settlement. EU-mediated negotiations, the only viable peace talks, need greater international support.
This particular war is the latest attack from Azerbaijan on Armenia, in this case on Armenia's international borders, really makes it difficult, rattles the already ongoing peace process that was created, that was put in place after the 2020 war.
NPR's A Martinez talks to Paul Stronski of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how Russia's war with Ukraine is reshaping the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.
While Yerevan seems to be in a weaker position and interested in negotiations, Baku is seeking to assert its advantage. The outbreak of a new conflict on Europe's borders would clearly be detrimental to EU security.
If everything continues the way it is going in Nagorno-Karabakh, for the Armenians Russia will become the ally that couldn’t protect it, while for the Azeris it will be the mediator that did the enemy’s bidding.
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