Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Even before Makei’s sudden death, it was hard to see how Minsk could ever return to its multi-vector foreign policy as long as Lukashenko remains in power, not to mention while the fighting rages in Ukraine.
In the eyes of the elite, Lukashenko no longer guarantees stability or solves their problems. On the contrary, he is increasingly a source of problems in his own right.
The war has left Belarus in a predicament, which boils down to depending on Russia for everything without enjoying the advantages of being part of Russia. In combination with the simmering domestic crisis, it leaves ever fewer incentives for the ruling nomenklatura and wider society to value the current Belarusian statehood.
The deployment clearly marks the continued erosion of Belarus’s sovereignty, which the country’s neighbors increasingly consider the new normal.
Even if Lukashenko gets serious about attempting a new balancing act, he will first have to earn the right to be heard.
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