Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Policymakers and analysts know that sanctions on their own are unlikely to topple the regime or force Belarus’s president to behave better toward his citizens.
Since October 2020, the European Union has gradually extended its sanctions against Belarus. Aimed to change the calculations and dynamics within the ruling elite, sanctions are now perceived as less important by the Belarusian people given the authoritarian regime's consolidation of power.
Lukashenko will have to provide Moscow with constant reminders of his loyalty, and following his recognition of Crimea, there are few options left for further rhetorical and symbolic concessions.
Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with leading experts Rachel Kleinfeld and Frances Brown to discuss the state of democracy and the path forward in advance of the summit.
There are no signs that anyone in the EU is ready to bow to Lukashenko’s pressure. There’s no reason to do so. In the worst-case scenario, the EU will end up with a few thousand extra refugees: a drop in the ocean.
In the current situation, the main objective for the Kremlin is to maintain a controlled, pro-Russian transition of power in neighboring Belarus. If that means sacrificing closer integration, so be it.
The EU has been slow and irresolute in stopping Minsk from using migrants as a hybrid weapon to weaken the bloc. A migration and asylum policy—not a fortress Europe—is the answer.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s initial anti-lockdown and anti-vaccine approach to the pandemic has caused a significant decline in his credibility. While his stance has since softened, the erosion of trust in government institutions has made it more difficult to stem the virus’ spread.
Among Belarusians, trust in the political elite remains low while the perceived effectiveness of EU sanctions is decreasing. The union must keep the latter in mind when assessing its strategy toward the country.
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