Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Russia has raised the prospect of using Transdniestria to open a second front against Ukraine and to pressure Moldova.
Unlike Ukraine and Moldova who have been given candidate status, Georgia has been offered a much weaker offer of EU membership perspective. Despite the best efforts of the country’s protestors, the Georgian dream government is unlikely to back down and meet these demands any time soon.
The war in Ukraine has given impetus to a new round of EU enlargement. Concerns about corruption, stagnation, and democratic backsliding tendencies may hamper the union's response but engagement with Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia must be sustained.
Three countries (Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova) are working their way towards accession to the EU, their clear European choice a thorn in Russia's side. In an effort to extend his sphere of influence, Russian President Vladimir Putin is de-facto occupying territory in all three countries.
Precariously located at the edge of the war in Ukraine, Moldova is thus far coping with Russian security threats. But the conflict’s socioeconomic fallout poses real dangers.
So far during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Turkey has positioned itself in a manner mostly convergent with its Western Allies. However, Ankara’s exposure to Russia on multiple fronts present it with difficult choices. Join Carnegie for a conversation on the implications of Russia's war in Ukraine.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine strengthens the geostrategic case for the EU offering a membership perspective to Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. But it also calls for a more political approach to accession.
The Moldovan crisis has demonstrated that Gazprom’s price will not be higher than the price set by the European hubs, which makes Gazprom a supplier like any other, and may be lower, which could make Gazprom a preferred supplier in countries with weaker economies.
The gas crisis could be a moment of truth for Moldova, which has an opportunity to take energy security more seriously, root out sectoral corruption, implement energy efficiency projects, build capacity to operate on the European gas market, and enhance cooperation with Ukraine. Achieving all this would not exclude Russia, but it would make energy a market issue, rather than a geopolitical one.
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