A discussion on the rising risks around the Taiwan Strait.

The Indian government looks set to continue building up the country’s semiconductor ecosystem. Taiwan’s considerable expertise is especially valuable and ought to be utilized.

China’s patient, long-term Taiwan policy, together with its modest record of military action abroad, suggests that Beijing’s more probable plan is to gradually intensify the policy it is already pursuing: a creeping encroachment into Taiwan’s airspace, maritime space, and information space. 

Malaysia’s and Taiwan’s long-standing cooperation demonstrates a friendship that seems likely to endure, quite apart from political or even geopolitical constraints. 

More generally, Taiwan will need to develop operational plans that address questions of staging, timing, sequencing, and logistics of a protective mining campaign ahead of time.

Most debates about Chinese coercion of Taiwan focus on invasion, and how an international coalition including the United States and Europe might respond. But China’s coercive toolkit is vast and includes both kinetic and non-kinetic measures that fall well short of these dire scenarios.