On May 11, on the third anniversary of India's nuclear tests, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage met with top Indian government officials to talk about missile defenses and non-proliferation concerns. His message found a receptive audience. Three years after the nadir in U.S.-India relations, the turnaround in relations is striking. India, still under U.S. post-nuclear tests sanctions, has been virtually alone in its unprecedented and enthusiastic endorsement of the Bush Administration's push for missile defenses.
Armitage talked with Indian Prime Minister Atal Vajpayee, Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh and National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra. After his visit India's Ministry of External Affairs released a statement saying, "We treat this as a step towards a winding down of the nuclear arms race." This refers to the combination of missile defenses, "consultation and cooperation" and scaling down and de-alerting of the U.S. nuclear arsenal that President Bush spoke about on May 1.
The Indian government has calculated that a Bush Administration in search of missile defenses to secure its homeland will be more understanding of the BJP's nuclear weapons-related efforts to secure its homeland. On May 11, India's Prime Minister Vajpayee said India welcomes "every move towards lightening the shadow of the nuclear terror under which we live today. It is in this context that we have welcomed President Bush's suggestions for steep reductions in nuclear arsenals and a move away from further development of offensive nuclear technologies." Tellingly, he also reiterated his government's commitment to a credible minimum nuclear deterrent, which "was a basic security umbrella which we owe to our people." and reflected that the world had " a much better appreciation now of [India's] perceptions of [its] security environment, which had guided that decision [to test]."
While in New Delhi, Armitage stated that "We have questions about Pakistan, which are well known and [of] which you are equally aware." This was widely reported in the Indian press as a new U.S. appreciation of India's security environment.
Across the border, while Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Ronghi was visiting Islamabad, Pakistan's General Mussharef criticized the Bush plan saying, " we share the international concern at the development and deployment of ballistic missile defense, which could jeopardize strategic stability, trigger a new arms race and undermine international efforts aimed at arms control and disarmament."
In contrast, the Indian government had called President Bush's speech "highly significant and far-reaching," arguing that "there is a strategic and technological inevitability in stepping away from a world that is held hostage by the doctrine of MAD to a cooperative, defensive transition that is underpinned by further cuts and a de-alert of nuclear forces."
This enthusiasm was tempered only slightly when Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov visited on May 3. Jaswant Singh, who now holds the post of both Defense and Foreign Minister, added that the ABM treaty, "should not be abrogated unilaterally." India buys most of its military hardware from Russia, and given its close ties, would be loathe to alienate Moscow. The president's expressed willingness to reach out to Russia on the issue of missile defenses has given India the space for endorsing the administration's position.
How did we get to this point in Indo-U.S. relations? It began with President Clinton's highly successful visit to India, which changed the country's perspective on the United States. Consequently, in the waning days of the last administration, New Delhi and Washington discovered each other as "natural allies." The ruling BJP now anticipates that the Bush administration will take ties where they have never been before. Given the Republican Party's open antipathy towards the CTBT, many Indian ministers and analysts are convinced that this administration is unlikely to push a non-proliferation agenda that is unpopular with India. Vajpayee's statement about a "better understanding" of India's security motivations for the nuclear tests underscores this thinking.
Jaswant Singh returned elated from a recent trip to Washington. The Indian press widely reported the fact that he was received with a guard of honor at the Pentagon, and spoke not only with Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld, Secretary of State Powell and Condoleeza Rice but also with President Bush. Singh, himself, saw his Washington welcome, particularly his parley with the U.S. president, as a sign that "there is a clear determination" on the part of this administration, "to go faster and very much further forward" in ties with India.
As a result, Singh said today's reality requires "a re-evaluation of all the fixed points of assessment…There is now a very interesting coincidence of India's national interest and the security of the United States." Now, Singh says the task ahead is "how to convert this reality of interests into an alliance of interests."
The taste of a growing importance in Washington with the expectation that sanctions will be removed and high-level defense ties restored, the prospect of emerging as Washington's preferred ally in its effort to "balance" China in the region, a sense of inevitability of the U.S. direction on missile defense and the opportunity to isolate Pakistan have all contributed to the BJP's shift in strategy.
There is little consensus on the issue in India. The press has been critical of this "irrational exuberance." The opposition Congress Party has criticized the government's "unseemly rush" to support the U.S. missile defense plan, arguing that it would have a negative impact on ties with China, which have only recently regained normalcy after the 1998 tests. They have urged the government not to fall "into the trap of believing it would gain from a Sino-U.S. conflict in Asia."
Still, Singh's warm Washington reception, the appointment of Christina Rocca as Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia, the speed at which Robert Blackwell was appointed Ambassador to India, and, more recently, the announcement that Armitrage's visit would be followed by the Chairman of the Joint-Chiefs-of Staff have combined to leave the Indian government more ecstatic than it has ever been about ties with the United States.
It is, in Singh's words, the "the start of a new era."
