In its recent White Paper addressing climate change, the Chinese government has identified three simultaneous challenges facing the nation. First and foremost, China must adapt to the inevitable changes in its climate, which will impact the country’s agriculture, livestock, water resources, biodiversity, forestry, coastal zone development, human health, and general economic prosperity. The government believes that mitigation and adaptation should receive equal emphasis in theory, but in practice China’s actions are guided by the belief that adaptation is a more “present and imminent task” for developing countries. While the focus on adaptation may be justified in the near term, it is critical that the government take great care to ensure that adaptation efforts do not obscure the equal importance of climate change mitigation. Fortunately, China’s impressive analysis of the domestic impacts of climate change indicate that it understands what is at stake, increasing the likelihood that China will take serious action in both realms.
China has already established a range of policies, programs, and laws aimed at increasing the country’s adaptive capacity. Improved early warning systems and stronger infrastructure will play an increasingly important role across many sectors. In the agricultural sector, for example, adaptation programs focus on improving irrigation infrastructure, as well as raising overall crop yield and developing stress-resistant seed varieties. The livestock sector will also see the expansion of hearty livestock strains, along with more careful land management and enhanced measures to detect and prevent animal disease epidemics. Similarly, plans are underway to strengthen protections for forests and other critical ecosystems, aiming to minimize the spread of pests, diseases, and forest fires. For coastal regions and other water resources, early warning and disaster alleviation systems make up part of a comprehensive plan to reduce the impacts of floods and droughts.
The government lists economic development as the second major challenge facing China today, and it has prescribed a program of “sustainable development” to reconcile its economic and environmental goals. China recognizes the magnitude and implications of its development task, admitting that a rapidly expanding economy may make it difficult even to meet its goal of “rational energy growth.” Yet the government has faith in potential environmental-economic synergies, and it has stated a firm commitment to a low-carbon development path. It believes the country can pursue win-win solutions that address development and climate change simultaneously.
The third and final climate-related challenge identified by the Chinese government is the task of limiting the country’s greenhouse gas emissions. Contributing roughly 20% of all global emissions, more than any other single country, China has a huge impact on the global climate. Energy conservation and efficiency form the backbone of the nation’s climate change mitigation policies, with the ambitious goal of reducing energy intensity (per unit of GDP) 20 percent by 2010, compared to 2005 levels. Many large-scale energy conservation projects have already taken effect and more are in the pipeline, which will save hundreds of millions of tons of coal from being burned each year.
This mitigation plan focuses heavily on the industrial sector, as that sector’s relative inefficiency lends itself to large and effective gains. The plan aims to increase the number of industries that consume relatively small amounts of energy and materials, decrease the number of energy-intensive industries, and increase the efficiency of existing industries. This plan includes some economic policies designed to incentivize energy efficiency, but there remain significant barriers to financing efficiency projects, which the government should address as soon as possible. Monitoring compliance also presents some tough challenges, requiring a high level of cooperation between national and local officials, but the government claims that it has already begun to implement an effective monitoring plan. The government also plans to expand recycling programs and strengthen controls on nitrous oxide as additional ways to reduce emissions in the industrial sector.
Furthermore, China aims to increase its share of clean energy by expanding its nuclear capacity, hastening coal-bed gas development, and boosting renewable energy capacity to supply 10 percent of all primary energy as early as 2010. Thanks in part to a set of economic policies that prioritize renewable energy, China already ranks 5th in the world in installed wind power capacity, and it is the world leader by far in installed solar thermal capacity. Today, these power sources continue to expand, as wind power capacity has more than doubled each year for the past several years. Along with biomass, ethanol, and hydropower, which are also expanding rapidly, these renewable energy sources together displace the equivalent of 220 million tons of coal per year. Finally, the government aims to control methane emissions with improved agricultural methods and plans to increase forest coverage 20 percent by 2010, compared to 2005 levels. This forestry program will put another 50 million tons of carbon dioxide into carbon sinks, accounting for 1 percent of China’s total annual emissions.
Despite China’s admirable gains and ambitious plans, it is important to note that these emissions “reductions” are measured compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Due to China’s rapid economic growth, its total carbon dioxide emissions are projected to increase a staggering 3.3% per year over the next several decades, doubling in just 20 years (Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2008). So the country clearly faces a difficult task in its effort to control emissions, and the Chinese government is far from monolithic in its commitment to mitigating climate change. Indeed, even in the government’s official statement on climate action, different sections highlight conflicting goals; some agencies clearly prioritize the environment while others prioritize economic growth. The resolution of this tension will determine whether the country maintains its commitment to sustainable development—rather than just development—and will determine the success or failure of its commendable environmental goals.
Across all of these goals, the government recognizes that enhancing public awareness of climate change can play an important role. To this end, it launched a series of publicity and education campaigns designed to inform the public about the causes, impacts, and solutions to climate change. In schools and through the mass media, citizens are encouraged to change their consumption behavior, strive toward greater efficiency in their homes, and participate in recycling programs. Serving as a role model itself, the government hopes to create a conservation-minded society that is prepared to address the varied challenges of climate change.
Science and technology will also be crucial tools for China in achieving its climate action goals. The government has identified climate change as a priority field for science and technology research, and it has accordingly gathered experts and formed several scientific bases devoted to climate change. This initiative will approach climate research from a variety of angles, from understanding and monitoring climate systems to developing technologies for mitigation and adaptation. In addition to committing much of its own funding to these projects, the government also hopes to spur greater private investment in this type of climate-related science and technology.
But China believes that international cooperation and technology-sharing—above and beyond domestic research—also have a critical role to play in technological development. Accordingly, the government is actively developing cooperative research programs with several countries, in both bilateral and multilateral deals. Furthermore, China encourages technology transfer and believes that it should not rely solely on market-based mechanisms; instead, developed countries have a responsibility to provide developing countries with emission-reducing technologies. China therefore tends to highlight its active participation in Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects under the Kyoto Protocol and argues that the CDM program should continue after the Protocol’s expiration in 2012.
The government repeatedly points to its compliance with the Kyoto Protocol as evidence of its willingness to cooperate internationally, which is certainly a good sign and a promising beginning. Despite its limited obligations under the Protocol, China’s very active participation proves that the country is willing to dedicate a significant amount of leadership time to this issue. Moreover, the government’s recent actions and negotiations indicate that it may be ready to accept actual mitigation obligations under the next global climate treaty, which in turn will set an important precedent for other developing countries and may encourage the U.S. to agree to binding targets. The Chinese have made it clear that they are willing to shoulder their fair share of the burden in addressing climate change; the difficulty may now lie in finding an acceptable definition of “common but differentiated responsibilities” for developed and developing countries alike. As we move toward a new global treaty at the end of 2009, balancing development and sustainability will be high on the agenda, as a key tool for bridging the gap between Chinese interests, U.S. interests, and the health of our global climate.
Whitney Angell Leonard is the 2008-2009 Junior Fellow for Energy and Climate at the Carnegie Endowment.
