Leaning into a multispeed Europe that includes the UK is the way Europeans don’t get relegated to suffering what they must, while the mighty United States and China do what they want.
Rym Momtaz
In Nyamagabe in southern Rwanda, flowers brought by residents attending the 28th local commemoration of the genocide against the Tutsi are seen on the ground at the Murambi genocide memorial. (Photo by SIMON WOHLFAHRT/AFP via Getty Images)
Lessons from the first Trump administration for today.
The Unites States has long recognized that preventing and responding to mass atrocities is both a moral responsibility and in its national security interest. Commitment to atrocity prevention and response has long enjoyed broad bipartisan support, and the U.S. government has long been a global leader on the issue. In 2011, the United States was the first country to establish an interagency body dedicated to atrocity prevention. Ever since, each Republican and Democratic administration—with the support of Congress—has taken additional, important steps toward implementing this objective.
In 2019, under President Donald Trump, the United States was the first country to enact federal legislation addressing global mass atrocities. The Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act mandates the White House to report annually to Congress on government-led atrocity prevention efforts. Under the act, the second Trump administration will again be required to report to Congress by mid-2025, raising the question: What is in store for the atrocity prevention agenda under Trump 2.0?
This paper reviews the atrocity prevention track record of the first Trump administration and other relevant action taken so far in this second term to parse out what efforts to sustain and uphold U.S. atrocity prevention obligations could look like under Trump’s second White House. This paper highlights how a number of steps the administration has already taken, including but not limited to the recently announced reorganization of the U.S. Department of State and the effective dissolution of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), unless promptly addressed, will raise dire challenges for the readiness and capacity of the State Department and other relevant agencies tasked with operationalizing U.S. commitments to this end. Accordingly, this paper advances a number of actionable recommendations that both the White House and the U.S. Congress should urgently consider to ensure the administration stands ready and capable to fulfill its obligations under the Elie Wiesel Act and other relevant legislation.
In light of the second Trump administration’s overhaul of U.S. foreign policy, and the flurry of executive orders, reform, and reprioritization undertaken in its first three months, it seems reasonable to ask what the future might hold for historic U.S. commitments anchored in the protection of civilians, the promotion of human rights, global accountability, and the rule of law. Following the Holocaust, a deep-seated consensus—rooted in long-standing U.S. principles and values—has formed across both Democratic and Republican administrations that genocide and the deliberate targeting of civilians cannot be tolerated.
Beyond the humanitarian imperative to protect civilians in harm’s way, it has long also been recognized that mass atrocities can threaten international peace and security, including by fueling conflict, generating uncontrolled migration and refugee flows, and destabilizing entire regions. The United States’ own national security is affected when masses of civilians are slaughtered, refugees flow across borders, and apparent murderers wreak havoc on regional stability and livelihoods. When mass atrocities go unchecked, perpetrators are emboldened, “creating openings for violent extremism to flourish; creating grievances that extremists can exploit; disrupting economic relations and undermining progress on economic development; [and] contributing to state fragility.”
Undoubtedly, mass atrocities and genocide demand action. Yet, when governmental engagement arrives too late, crucial opportunities for prevention—or to mobilize through low-cost, low-risk action—are often missed: “By the time these issues have commanded the attention of senior policy makers, the menu of options has shrunk considerably and the costs of action have risen,” ultimately “necessitating costly ex post intervention.” This underscores the need for early and proactive engagement, including through interagency coordination, intelligence collection, and analysis to inform early warnings, monitoring, and documentation, and to ensure that all available options to prevent and respond to mass atrocities can be effectively leveraged in time.
After witnessing the devastating consequences of the failure to prevent genocide and other mass atrocities in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s, U.S. officials vowed to ensure that similar atrocities would never again go unchallenged. Thus, in 2007, a historic Genocide Prevention Task Force was convened (under the stewardship of former secretary of state Madeleine Albright and former secretary of defense William Cohen) to recommend what steps the U.S. government might take to this end. Receiving bipartisan praise, its work set in motion a process that would lead the Barack Obama White House to declare mass atrocity prevention a “core national security interest and a core moral responsibility” of the United States and to direct the coordination of a “whole-of-government approach” to deliver on this national security imperative.
Bipartisan consensus has since been firm in support of U.S. commitments and global leadership to prevent and respond to mass atrocity scenarios. In 2011, the United States was the first country to establish an interagency body dedicated to atrocity prevention; each of the following Republican and Democratic administrations took additional, important steps toward implementing this agenda. In 2019, the United States was the first country to also enact federal legislation addressing global mass atrocities. The Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act, signed into law by Trump, mandated the White House to report annually to Congress on government-led atrocity prevention efforts. Indeed, through his first term, Trump and his administration took a number of additional steps aimed to further implement atrocity prevention objectives. This included enshrining a U.S. commitment to “hold perpetrators of genocide and mass atrocities accountable” made in the 2017 U.S. National Security Strategy, and taking action to implement U.S. commitments under the Elie Wiesel Act, including submitting the first two White House reports to Congress under Section 5 (in 2019 and 2020).
Trump also signed into law a number of other relevant statutes, such as the 2017 Women, Peace, and Security Act, the first comprehensive legislation on this topic in the world; the 2019 Global Fragility Act, which aims to improve the U.S. government’s approach to addressing global fragility and violent conflict by focusing on strengthening national and local governance, promoting conflict resolution, and preventing violent extremism; a number of thematic and country-specific legislation, including the 2018 Iraq and Syria Genocide Relief and Accountability Act authorizing U.S. government agencies to provide humanitarian, stabilization, and recovery assistance for nationals and residents of Iraq and Syria, in particular ethnic and minority individuals at risk of genocide and other atrocity crimes; and the 2019 Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act setting forth sanctions and financial restrictions on institutions and individuals related to mass atrocities in Syria. In 2019, the Trump administration also released the U.S. Strategy on Women, Peace, and Security to operationalize commitments under the relevant act. The Joe Biden administration further built on its predecessors’ contributions by publishing the first-ever national, government-wide U.S. Strategy to Anticipate, Prevent, and Respond to Atrocities (SAPRA) in 2022, which also remains in effect.
Under the Elie Wiesel Act, the second Trump administration will be required to report annually to Congress starting in mid-2025 on progress made toward its implementation (including on current initiatives, funding allocations, risk assessments, and training programs, among other issues),1 raising the question: What is in store for the atrocity prevention agenda under Trump 2.0? In its first three months, the Trump administration has already taken limited but important action in support of certain atrocity prevention objectives. This includes executing an arrest warrant against an alleged Rwanda genocidaire; sanctioning two individuals, including a Rwandan government minister, for their alleged support of M23; and sanctioning Houthi leaders (as well as their network and specific vessels) for unlawful weapons procurement and destabilizing violence in the region.
Although no one knows what additional steps, if any, the second Trump administration will take to uphold its responsibilities under the act, it might be instructive to look back at the first administration’s track record, and other relevant actions taken so far in this second term (including the recently announced dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), among other congressionally mandated entities, and the reorganization of the U.S. Department of State), to parse out what U.S. government efforts to sustain and uphold the atrocity prevention agenda could look like under Trump’s second White House. See box 1 for an overview of the U.S. government’s approach to atrocity prevention (up to the recent reorganization of the State Department, which foresees abolition of many bureaus holding key responsibilities for atrocity prevention), including a discussion of the task force, its composition and mandate, and other relevant federal agencies involved in supporting and operationalizing U.S. commitments under the act.2
The U.S. government approach to atrocity prevention, mitigation, and response has evolved significantly over the last fifteen years and draws from a number of statutes, authorities, and related strategies, alongside the U.S. Strategy to Anticipate, Prevent, and Respond to Atrocities and the Elie Wiesel Act. In addition to fulfilling its responsibilities under relevant legislation, each administration is also required to regularly integrate atrocity prevention efforts with thematic workstreams and priorities that align with its agenda. For example, the Joe Biden administration made food insecurity and starvation as a weapon of war key thematic priorities of its atrocity prevention work, while the first Donald Trump administration emphasized religious freedom and combating antisemitism.
It has long been understood that directing the implementation of atrocity prevention commitments requires interagency coordination and a whole-of-government approach. For this reason, the Barack Obama White House established an interagency committee previously known as the Atrocities Prevention Board, which became the Atrocity Early Warning Task Force under the first Trump administration. The task force is White House–led, but houses its secretariat with the State Department’s Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations and draws from the contributions of a number of other U.S. government departments and agencies, including: the Departments of Justice, Treasury, Defense, and Homeland Security; the intelligence community; USAID (per the Trump White House 2019 report) (until recently); as well as the National Security Council and the FBI (per its 2020 report). The task force’s responsibility is to enhance U.S. government efforts to “prevent, mitigate, and respond to atrocities” by: “monitor[ing] developments in atrocity risk globally to alert the interagency to early warning signs; improv[ing] interagency coordination . . . to address gaps and lessons-learned . . . ; and facilitating the development and implementation of policies” to further build U.S. government capacity to pursue atrocity prevention, mitigation, and response through a variety of “economic, financial, and prosecutorial tools” (discussed in this paper).
In addition, its mandate requires the task force to regularly consult and work with civil society, at home and abroad, both to assist its early warning efforts (by leveraging forecasting by initiatives such as the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum and Dartmouth’s Early Warning Project to supplement the State Department’s Atrocity Early Warning Assessment, and the intelligence community’s confidential Annual Mass Atrocities Risk Assessment) and to help identify the appropriate strategies and partners on the ground, given its “greater access to local communities” in countries at risk. As part of its external engagement, the task force also regularly receives feedback and recommendations from civil society on how to improve its efforts and partners with a number of both governmental and nongovernmental institutes (including the State Department’s Foreign Service Institute, the U.S. Army Security Force Assistance & Stability Integration Directorate, and, until recently, the U.S. Institute of Peace, among others) to deliver trainings and raise awareness among civilian and military personnel of both the United States and partner countries.
Finally, the task force works through “multilateral and other diplomatic engagements,” both bilaterally and with groupings of “like-minded partners” (such as the International Atrocity Prevention Working Group) through “coordination and burden sharing” to “develop actionable programs,” “inform mitigation and accountability efforts,” and “implement capacity building programs . . . that help partner countries more effectively prevent and respond to atrocities.”
For the most up-to-date account of U.S. government efforts in all of these areas, including efforts by sector and how these translated to specific initiatives within at-risk-countries, see the 2024 Biden White House report.
Despite the challenges already arising from the approach the second Trump administration has taken in its first few months to cut government spending, shrink the size of the federal government, and reorient U.S. foreign policy in accordance with the president’s America First agenda, the approach the administration might take toward long-standing U.S. commitments to atrocity prevention should not be a foregone conclusion. In fact, during his first term, Trump and his administration took a number of important steps to fulfill their obligations under the Elie Wiesel Act and other relevant legislation. Even though a track record is, of course, not always indicative of future performance, the most instructive starting point to assess what approach the second Trump administration could take on atrocity prevention issues might be to look back at what the president and his administration already achieved during his first term.
The last congressional report submitted by a Trump White House dates back to 2020 and is particularly instructive to appreciate how the administration might have understood its commitments, identified priorities, and implemented action pursuant to the Elie Wiesel Act and other relevant authorities.3 For example, per Section V of the report, in 2019 the administration abolished the high-level interagency working group previously known as the Atrocity Prevention Board, creating instead a White House–led Atrocity Early Warning Task Force, which continued to meet regularly at the working level throughout his term. Sections III and IV of the report emphasize how the administration “used multilateral and bilateral diplomatic engagements,” “worked with like-minded partners,” and “engaged with civil society” to “reaffirm the U.S. commitment to atrocity prevention, publicly denounce perpetrators, and raise the alarm” on countries where atrocities are ongoing or at risk. Given the “important focus” the human rights crisis in Xinjiang received from the administration, it is helpful to look at this particular case to better understand how the administration implemented this approach in practice.
To begin with, the administration leveraged a number of United Nations (UN) meetings, platforms, and other commemorations to “publicly condemn China’s ongoing and escalating abuses of the Uyghurs and other members of ethnic and religious minority groups in Xinjiang.” This included multiple initiatives:
The Department of State also held a number of consultations with civil society organizations, regularly communicated with Uyghur survivors and their family members, and leveraged honors (such as the 2020 International Women of Courage Award) to “bring international attention to the [Chinese Communist Party’s] campaign of repression.”5 Then secretary of state Mike Pompeo also issued a number of statements “about the harassment, imprisonment, or detention” experienced by Uyghur survivors, activists, and their families and strongly condemned the Chinese Communist Party’s “coercive population control practices, which include forced sterilization and involuntary birth control methods.” In 2021, Pompeo also issued a (somewhat controversial) official genocide determination against China, while the State Department pursued additional accountability and mitigation measures, such as financing efforts to gather evidence and hold perpetrators accountable. These measures included allocating “$1 million to address issues of repression in Xinjiang” in 2019 and working with other U.S. government departments, including the Treasury Department, to impose export controls, visa restrictions, and economic sanctions under the Global Magnitsky Act.6
Although the U.S. government’s prioritization of this particular situation was criticized by some for overshadowing other urgent human rights crises, the above highlights how—even as it criticized the UN and other international organizations and withdrew the United States from the UN Human Rights Council—the first Trump administration understood and embraced the crucial need to leverage international diplomatic forums (including the UN itself) and work with like-minded countries and partners in civil society to advance its objectives. Importantly, the administration also pursued accountability and mitigation efforts with respect to other crises beyond Xinjiang (most notably in Burma/Myanmar, Iraq, South Sudan, and Syria, among others), which are equally worth reviewing as they provide insight into additional action and areas of intervention not available or applicable to the situation in Xinjiang.
One such area is the pursuit of criminal accountability by means of cooperation, financial support, and technical assistance to international justice and law enforcement mechanisms such as the UN Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Da’esh/ISIL (UNITAD) and the UN International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism in Syria (IIIM). U.S. cooperation and assistance aimed to “develop actionable case files” against perpetrators of atrocities in Syria and Iraq,7 including by supporting initiatives aimed to gather battlefield evidence and sharing the State Department’s own documentation with prosecutors in Europe. In addition, the Trump administration reported collaborating with international judicial institutions “to strengthen justice and accountability mechanisms”8; “working through the [UN Security Council] to address abuses by armed groups and government forces” in Burundi, the Central African Republic, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo; and allocating “$10.5 million towards atrocity prevention programming globally” from USAID and the State Department’s 2019 budgets.9
Just as it supported global accountability efforts, the first Trump administration also leveraged domestic authorities (including under criminal and immigration statutes) and the capabilities of other U.S. government agencies, such as Homeland Security Investigations, the Human Rights Violators and War Crimes Center, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), to carry out multiple goals: ensuring the United States “does not become a safe-haven for perpetrators of atrocities,” deploying a “range of economic and financial pressure tools to disrupt and deter atrocities” and to respond to or contain military threats emerging from Syria and Islamic State–held territories in Northern Iraq, and undertaking “capacity-building programs for partner governments.” This reportedly led to in-depth assessments and training for local law enforcement to “stabilize border areas and inhibit illicit financial flows, collect evidence, and conduct witness interviews following suspected atrocities.”10 Finally, the administration reported delivering a number of atrocity prevention trainings—both in person and online, through USAID, the State and Defense Departments, and the FBI—for civilian, military, and law enforcement personnel from both the United States and partner countries.11
Although the civil society assessment that followed the 2020 White House report raised a number of areas for improvement and ongoing substantive, structural, and procedural concerns with the administration’s approach, it also credited the administration’s work as “valuable and constructive contributions to global efforts to mitigate, prevent, and respond to mass atrocities and genocide.” On this basis, then, the first Trump administration’s track record on atrocities prevention suggests there may be sustained progress during his second term. Yet, unless promptly addressed, a number of steps the second Trump administration has already taken will raise dire challenges for its ability to uphold atrocity prevention commitments, even if the political will is there to do so.
The most pressing issue, in light of the recently announced reorganization of the State Department, is that it remains unclear which part(s) of the federal government will be given the lead and/or corollary responsibilities to implement U.S. government atrocity preventioncommitments moving forward. This is because the restructuring, as currently envisioned, abolishes many offices and bureaus (which were formerly under the Undersecretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy and Human Rights, another office being abolished) that have historically played a significant role in implementing U.S. government commitments in this area. These include: the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations (CSO), which has historically housed the task force’s secretariat, and directly supported the State Department’s Conflict Observatory; the Office of Global Criminal Justice (GCJ), which has been leading the implementation of U.S. policy on atrocity crimes accountability since it was created in 1997; the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement (INL), which has supported the investigation and prosecution of perpetrators by U.S. authorities and partner countries (including Ukraine); the Office of International Religious Freedom (IRF), which inter alia played a crucial role in supporting U.S. policy toward atrocities in Xinjiang during the first Trump term; and the Office to Monitor and Combat Trafficking in Persons (TIP), among others.
In addition, the Trump administration has announced drastic cuts to international organizations and other multilateral initiatives crucial to advancing atrocity prevention objectives within (and alongside) international partners, forums, and organizations. Moving forward, clarity on how any and all atrocity prevention responsibilities previously under the competences of each abolished entity will be reallocated is imperative, to avoid losing expertise, readiness, and capacity to the detriment of the U.S. government’s ability to deliver on its commitments.
Given the key role USAID played (according to the administration itself) in implementing U.S. government commitments and initiatives on atrocity prevention, its effective dissolution will prove to be a key obstacle to the capacity and, in all likelihood, effectiveness of efforts that might be pursued by the second Trump White House. The administration’s decision to overhaul the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP), a government-funded research institution, by firing most of its board, executive leadership, and employees and taking over its premises, is also likely to impede its pursuit of atrocity prevention efforts, given the instrumental role the institute has long played in generating groundbreaking research and analysis to support U.S. government efforts at the strategic, policy, and operational levels; supporting training; and convening policymakers.12 Indeed, USIP’s atrocity prevention contributions date back to the very origin of the agenda, when it partnered with the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum and the American Academy of Diplomacy to convene the earlier-mentioned Genocide Prevention Task Force.
To make up for the loss of contributions from these two hugely important institutions, the State Department and other government agencies will require a massive surge to supplement their own work and initiatives on atrocity prevention. This seems improbable, however, at least at present, given the reorganization under way and the huge cuts that have already been made to the agency’s budget, not to mention the number of agency employees, contractors, and partners that already are (or are likely to be) affected (including by additional firings, reassignments, and reductions in workforce) over the next months. Even if Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has a long track record as a senator of supporting action to prevent and respond to mass atrocities,13 were able to marshal enough financial resources to deliver atrocity prevention initiatives and related research, analysis, and programmatic activities, the loss of expertise, institutional knowledge, and human capital arising from the administration’s current approach is inestimable and will be extremely hard, if not impossible, to replace.
The same is true for any other agency that is involved in supporting atrocity prevention efforts by implementing and operationalizing U.S. government commitments to this end. Although their true scope remains unclear, such measures—including personnel reassignments and dismissals; the disbandment of interagency working groups (such as that responsible for gathering intelligence to inform U.S. policy on atrocity crimes); budget cuts; and within-agency reprioritizations—have already affected and will continue to affect the Department of Homeland Security, Department of Defense, National Security Council, FBI, and much of the rest of the intelligence community. Moreover, the reduction of U.S. government personnel is likely to also affect U.S. diplomatic missions and other operations within at-risk countries. Although the list of U.S. embassies that might be closed has not yet been made public, this is a serious concern particularly for at-risk countries, given that losing an embassy entails a lack of eyes and ear on the ground, as well as channels for implementing policy as required. Meanwhile, cuts and terminations to federal grants and U.S. foreign assistance, unless reversed or otherwise addressed, will cripple the research, analysis, and knowledge generation that is continuously needed to properly inform U.S. government action on the basis of data-driven evidence, to monitor and document ongoing violations, and to highlight the scores of lessons learned yet to be assimilated. Similarly, the impact of such cuts on the local partners the U.S. government would otherwise (and rightly) rely on to deliver many of its in-country programs and activities has already proven devastating (not to mention such cuts’ fatal effects on the lives of the world’s most vulnerable).
In addition, a number of actions the administration has already directed against key institutions, both at home and abroad, raise broader but important questions for the future of U.S. leadership and global engagement, as well as ongoing U.S. commitments to address atrocities, protect civilians, and promote postconflict stability. These include, among others, its reimposition of sanctions on the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, an institution with which (for better or worse) the U.S. government inescapably has intersecting interests across a range of policy priorities and in a number of country situations; its (second) withdrawal from the UN Human Rights Council; its overhaul of congressionally mandated entities; its dismantling of initiatives aimed to support accountability for Russian war crimes; and its current approach to the wars in both Ukraine and Gaza. More broadly, the confrontational approach the second Trump administration has taken toward a range of like-minded partners and international organizations will seriously impede U.S. government efforts to work through multilateral and perhaps even bilateral arrangements as it did in its first term. For example, the administration’s push to review all multilateral agreements to which Washington is party might lead to the loss of access to important forums and agencies that previously offered both platforms to raise U.S. government concerns and implementation partners to carry out its agenda. Tenser relationships with some members of the International Atrocity Prevention Working Group—the microlateral network bringing together those allies (such as Australia, Canada, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom) with whom the U.S. government has coordinated atrocity prevention action most closely until now—shows how steps taken in the past three months, unless constructively addressed, will negatively impact the U.S. ability to partner with even its closest friends.
Put simply, unless it reverses course or otherwise repairs the damage already apparent, the Trump administration might have seriously undercut its own capacity to leverage the expertise, resources, and capabilities of the U.S. government’s own agencies and undermined its chances to work with both the multilateral and civil society partners it needs to rely on to deliver on its atrocity prevention commitments. Of course, it is possible that the administration will be able to identify at least some avenues to engage in specific country situations, but these will be limited and (in keeping with its approach during the first term) are likely to be highly selective. That, too, will make it harder, even for willing partners, to join U.S. government efforts given the current global political climate.
Despite the challenges highlighted above, the administration can nonetheless still take a number of steps to redress the situation and improve its readiness to deliver on atrocity prevention commitments, regardless of how these might be articulated and prioritized. These steps include:
The U.S. Congress has a hugely important and urgent role to play in holding the administration to its obligations under the Elie Wiesel Act and other relevant legislation and in ensuring that competent U.S. government entities and departments tasked with implementing such commitments stand ready and capable to do so. This includes:
In addition, Congress should consider:
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
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