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How Will the U.S.-China Military Balance Evolve in East Asia by 2034?

How will the military balance of power in East Asia evolve over the next decade amid tense competition between the United States and China? What would a stable balance of power that minimizes the risk of military conflict look like, and how might it emerge?

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By M. Taylor Fravel and Eric Heginbotham
Published on November 21, 2024

How will the military balance of power in East Asia evolve over the next decade amid tense competition between the United States and China? What would a stable balance of power that minimizes the risk of military conflict look like, and how might it emerge? In their chapter for Carnegie’s volume on U.S.-China relations for the 2030s, Taylor Fravel and Eric Heginbotham review the key factors shaping the military balance in East Asia and outline a strategy for the United States that would bolster stability in the region. They describe a denial strategy built on three central elements: clearly defined and limited military objectives, resilient force posture and forces, and phased operations.

Find their Chapter in the volume, "U.S.-China Relations for the 2030s: Toward a Realistic Scenario for Coexistence," here: https://bit.ly/4ePjly8.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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