• Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Europe logoCarnegie lettermark logo
EUUkraine
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Judy Dempsey"
  ],
  "type": "commentary",
  "blog": "Strategic Europe",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Europe"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Eastern Europe",
    "Caucasus",
    "Russia",
    "Georgia",
    "Ukraine",
    "Western Europe",
    "Germany",
    "Moldova",
    "Europe"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform",
    "Democracy",
    "Foreign Policy",
    "EU",
    "Security",
    "Civil Society"
  ]
}
Strategic Europe logo

Source: Getty

Commentary
Strategic Europe

Putin and the End of Illusion

The EU and Russia are embroiled in a struggle for influence in Europe’s East. The West needs to realize that any notions it had about a cooperative Russia have ceased to exist.

Link Copied
By Judy Dempsey
Published on Mar 3, 2014
Strategic Europe

Blog

Strategic Europe

Strategic Europe offers insightful analysis, fresh commentary, and concrete policy recommendations from some of Europe’s keenest international affairs observers.

Learn More

Ever since Vladimir Putin first became Russian president in 2000, EU leaders have been unable to establish a long-term strategy toward their powerful Eastern neighbor.

The EU looked on as Putin invaded Chechnya just weeks after he entered the Kremlin. That part of southern Russia is now so combustible that if it does explode, no military force will be able to bring stability or peace to the region. It’s a cauldron waiting to boil over, and when that happens, it will have terrible consequences for the Caucasus and for Russia’s internal security.

When Putin seized the territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia in a short war in 2008, European leaders again wrung their hands. Since then, Russia has established the facts on the ground. Georgia’s territorial integrity has been destroyed.

Moldova’s territorial integrity has been affected too. There, for over two decades, Russian-backed leaders in the breakaway region of Transnistria have done everything possible to undermine Moldova’s fragile democracy and its ambitions to move closer to the EU.

And now Crimea. Since February 28, this peninsula in southern Ukraine is under the de facto control of Russia. No matter how U.S. or EU leaders react, Putin will push to consolidate Russia’s grip on this strategic part of Ukraine. It is as if Putin is trying to reverse the collapse of the Soviet Union, an event that Putin described as one of the worst tragedies ever to hit Russia.

It is time for European leaders to recognize that the age of illusions about Russia is over.

One of those illusions was built on the premise and hope that Putin would modernize his country. That is something that several European governments have longed for—especially Germany, but also Russia’s other Western neighbors, not least Poland.

For decades, successive German governments have reached out to Russia, believing that the modernization of the Russian economy would eventually lead to the creation of a modern political order where the rule of law would prevail. Yet Germany’s Ostpolitik, or Eastern policy, has failed, as Putin’s policies in Chechnya, Georgia, and now Crimea have shown. Surely, any believer in Ostpolitik must now admit that a major illusion has been shattered.

Europe’s other illusion was that Russia would accept the reunification of the continent. In fact, Putin has actively sought to prevent Europe from being reunited.

Russia has found it very difficult to accept that Poland, the Baltic states, and other former Soviet satellites have joined the EU and NATO. Repeatedly, Moscow has tried to undermine these countries’ self-confidence by imposing trade embargoes or by exploiting their energy dependence on Russia.

But Putin’s indiscriminate use of energy resources to retain the Kremlin’s influence over this part of Europe—especially his belief that Russia could charge prohibitive prices for the gas it supplies to the Baltic states—has backfired. Russian energy giant Gazprom, which used to be one of Moscow’s most powerful and effective foreign policy tools for cajoling its Western neighbors, is now in the midst of a major dispute with the European Commission over alleged abuse of power.

The EU and Russia are now engaged in a massive and dangerous struggle for Eastern Europe. Any illusions that Putin might allow the countries in the shared neighborhood to move peacefully toward the West have been crushed—thanks to Russia’s policies in Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine (both before and since the 2004–2005 Orange Revolution), and elsewhere. Through those policies, Putin has tried to build a new Iron Curtain across the continent.

In the short term, Putin may believe he can achieve that, while convincing his people with his powerful and insidious propaganda and control of the media that he is simply protecting ethnic Russians living outside Russia. He can also establish facts on the ground in a way that neither EU nor U.S. leaders can counter with sanctions, boycotts, or other measures.

But sooner or later, even Putin’s own citizens will begin to question what Russia stands for under its current president.

About the Author

Judy Dempsey

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe

Judy Dempsey is a nonresident senior fellow at Carnegie Europe

    Recent Work

  • Commentary
    Germany’s Shattered Consensus

      Judy Dempsey

  • Commentary
    Europe Needs to Hear What America is Saying

      Judy Dempsey

Judy Dempsey
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Judy Dempsey
Political ReformDemocracyForeign PolicyEUSecurityCivil SocietyEastern EuropeCaucasusRussiaGeorgiaUkraineWestern EuropeGermanyMoldovaEurope

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Strategic Europe

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    The Speech Ursula von der Leyen Can’t Deliver

    European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is about to give her annual address on the state of the EU. Here’s what she won’t—but should—say.

      • Rym Momtaz

      Rym Momtaz

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Europe Fails to Learn the Lessons from Ceuta

    The aftermath of the Ceuta crisis shows Europe has drawn the wrong lessons. Rather than doubling down on failed migration policies, the EU needs to address the underlying roots of such episodes.

      Richard Youngs

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Germany’s Shattered Consensus

    An overwhelming victory by a far-right-wing party in a small state in eastern Germany will have major repercussions for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s coalition.

      Judy Dempsey

  • Carney Canada EU Trump
    Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Taking the Pulse: Is Canada Leading a Third Way?

    Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has twice inspired praise for standing up to U.S. President Donald Trump: at the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos and on Canada-U.S. trade negotiations. Is Carney showing a third way better than the EU has in dealing with the Trump administration?

      • Rym Momtaz

      Rym Momtaz, ed.

  • Von der Leyen Antonio Costa EU Europe
    Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Europe’s Self-Confidence Problem

    The EU’s responses to two recent incidents expose the gulf between European perceptions and capabilities. Unless the union can bridge that gap, it will never become a real geostrategic power.

      • Rym Momtaz

      Rym Momtaz

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
Carnegie Europe logo, white
Rue du Congrès, 151000 Brussels, Belgium
  • Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
  • Projects
  • Events
  • Contact
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Gender Equality Plan
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.