New Wars and New Leaders in Africa

"New Wars and New Leaders in Africa"

On March 31, 1999, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace sponsored a Face to Face breakfast discussion entitled "New Wars and New Leaders in Africa." The breakfast featured Princeton University Professor Jeffrey I. Herbst and Carnegie Endowment Senior Associate Marina Ottaway. Ambassador Donald McHenry, Georgetown University, moderated the session. The discussion also introduced Ms. Ottaway's new book, Africa's New Leaders: Democracy or State Reconstruction?, released this month by the Carnegie Endowment.

Ms. Ottaway began the discussion by outlining the main argument of her monograph: changes taking place in Uganda, Eritrea, and Ethiopia are not necessarily stepping-stones in a long-term process of democratization. Rather, these new African rulers are addressing key issues of state reconstruction that need to be resolved before additional political reforms can be implemented. At the beginning of the decade, Uganda, Eritrea, and Ethiopia were all "failed states" in that they lacked viable state structures and thus had very little capacity to govern. All are now engaged in a three-pronged approach to reconstructing the state: 1) establishing power through achieving internal security; 2) establishing governmental authority through the creation of a system of administration that makes it possible to implement government decisions; and 3) further down the transition process, enhancing participation in government decisions. The third aspect of state reconstruction refers to limited liberalization efforts, such as holding local elections and involving the public in writing the constitution.

Ottaway drew several conclusions from the experience of state reconstruction in Uganda, Eritrea, and Ethiopia. First, she called attention to the importance of leadership in the transformation of each state: leadership is essential but strong leaders can undermine the process of building state institutions. Furthermore, the absence of new leaders in opposition parties and other areas outside government centers can impede a democratic transition. Second, she underlined the importance of sequencing political reforms, because it is impossible to promote democracy without the minimal conditions of power and authority. Ottaway thus called on the assistance community to pay more attention to the sequence of reforms in their efforts to promote democracy.

Herbst began his presentation by cautioning the audience not to take too seriously fashionable rhetoric that is often used to describe trends in Africa. Whether it is the expression "African renaissance" that has gained common currency or predictions of the "death of the African renaissance" that soon followed, such rhetoric fails to describe the real underlying political and economic trends. The transition to democracy is not a uni-linear progress that can be captured by either expression, but it entails progress and setbacks. Herbst also cautioned against using election outcomes as a barometer of democratic transitions, arguing that more insights can be gleaned from understanding institutional innovations. The Ethiopian constitution, for instance, devolves power from the central authorities to the provinces, addressing the fundamental problem of creating order in our ethnically divided society. In Uganda, Museveni has allowed the re-establishment of traditional leaders? authority, another institutional innovation that indicates some democratic progress.

Herbst also commented on the conflicts affecting each of the countries. These states are creating situations where the diplomatic traditions of Africa no longer apply, leaving the international community at a loss on how to approach them. However, these conflicts are really nothing new in the sense that they are similar to old-style European wars, where revolutionary leaders came to power and shattered existing norms. The border conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, for instance, is an extension of the Eritrean war of independence. The conflict in central Africa also resembles a European war in the sense that revolutionary states are entering into complex alliances seeking to protect their interests and overturn an order they see as deleterious to them.