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Ameen Jan, Team Leader for the UK Prime Minister Strategy Unit, provided an overview of the February 2005 report to the British government by the Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit. The report, entitled “Investing in Prevention: An International Strategy to Manage Risks of Instability and Improve Crisis Response,” presents the case for investing in measures to prevent crises rather than responding after they occur and outlines a framework for engagement with states at risk of instability.
Drawing on the report, Jan argued that unstable states pose considerable risk internationally, leading to an increase in the number of armed conflicts, the transnationalization of organized crime, and the spread of infectious diseases.
Jan then presented a framework developed by the Strategy Unit to analyze the risk of instability, which takes into consideration the country’s capacity to effectively manage change at the center, the external and internal risk factors, the external stabilizing factors, and the possibility of shocks.
The report recommends that international response to the risk of instability be improved in four areas: (1) building country capacity and resilience; (2) aligning incentives of national elites with longer-term stability; (3) increasing international responsibility; and (4) improving crisis response. A general discussion followed Jan’s remarks.
The report and related background papers can be found at http://www.strategy.gov.uk/work_areas/countries_at_risk/index.asp.