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IMGXYZ571IMGZYXOn January 24th the Beirut-based Center for Arab Unity Studies (CAUS) hosted a seminar on “The new Middle East strategy; the view from Washington,” featuring a presentation by Carnegie’s Director of the Middle East Program, Marina Ottaway. The event was attended by a number of prominent Lebanese figures including former government officials as well as academics. It was moderated by Dr. Khair Eddin Hassib, head of the Center.
Ottaway offered a thorough overview of the new U.S. strategy in the Middle East in light of President George Bush’s State of the Union speech. She addressed key political issues dominating the public debate both in the Middle East and in Washington. These included the situation in Iraq and U.S. domestic politics. She concluded that the Bush administration has abandoned its emphasis on political reform in the region and is instead reviving old alliances with regimes which, since the September 11th attacks, had previously been designated as autocrats but are now relabeled as moderates. “The dominant perception is that we have a president under pressure and many of his actions and decisions aim to save the legacy of his presidency,” said Ottaway. She pointed out that the commonly perceived eclipse of the neo-cons’ influence over U.S. foreign policy could not be further from the truth. “There has been what I call a resurgence of the neo-cons and what we have seen now is that they are strong as ever. The idea of a troops surge in Iraq comes straight from the American Enterprise Institute.”
The Iraq Study Group, Ottaway told the audience, forced the Bush administration to admit that the situation in Iraq is dire, but the Group suggested a policy the President could not accept. Instead, the administration not only chose to escalate the war in Iraq by increasing the number of troops, but also decided to pick a new enemy, Iran. The danger about the debate on Iran, explained Ottaway, was that it is presented as posing an existential threat to the United States. “It is Iran more than Al-Qaeda that is getting the attention now,” she said. When asked about the chances of a U.S. military strike against Iran, Ottaway said it was fifty-fifty.
Ottaway said that a return to the ruthlessness of Cold War alliances is emerging, but that such tactics now lack the sense of restraint that characterized Cold War policies. A persistent trait of the Cold War was that the United States would talk to the enemy regularly. The Bush administration, however, has changed the concept of diplomacy by declaring a policy of no compromise and shunning all forms of dialogue with the enemy.
Synopsis prepared by Omayma Abdel-Latif, projects coordinator for the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.
