Behind China’s 17th Party Congress: Institutional Atrophy and Reform

IMGXYZ780IMGZYXThe Carnegie Endowment hosted a public lecture entitled “Behind China’s 17th Party Congress: Institutional Atrophy and Reform” on September 25, 2007, where Professor David Shambaugh, founding director of the China Policy Program at George Washington University and nonresident senior fellow at Brookings, discussed potential impact the incoming 17th National Congress of Communist Party of China would have on the institutional reform of CCP.  Dr. Albert Keidel of Carnegie's China Program moderated the event, with commentary provided by Dr. Minxin Pei.

Professor Shambaugh started the discussion with a brief prediction on the possible outcomes of this Congress.  The most intriguing element of 17th Party Congress would be the leadership changes at senior levels.  While incumbent President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao will retain their positions, many members in Politburo between 65 and 70 would likely retire and be replaced by the so-called “Fifth Generation” leaders.  Nevertheless, the designated successor for Hu Jintao as the next Communist Party General Secretary and President of China would likely be selected from the newly-elected Politburo.  The Central Military Commission will have leadership turnover as well: National Defense Minister General Cao Gangchuan will likely to retire along with one or two other members.

In addition to the change in leadership, the primary objective of 17th Party Congress is to address the contemporary challenges faced by CCP more efficiently through re-adaptation of Party agenda.  It has been evident over the past five years that despite phenomenal performance of the economy, China has gradually transformed into a newly industrialized country (NIC) with key development problems existing on a national scale.  While corruption continues to rot the CCP and society from within, pervasiveness of communist ideology has declined in an all-time low, and contributes to the moral vacuum in Chinese society today.  In addition, with lack of enforcement and implementation, the Chinese government remains hard-pressed in the delivery of public goods such as public health, pension reform, education, and the environment.

After drawing lessons from other democratic developing nations as well as former communist states in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, the CCP has sought to re-invigorate party legitimacy and re-rationalize party constituency with reform policies in the four following areas:

1. Diversify membership.  The CCP seeks to become more pluralistic by increasing its membership size to include wealthy entrepreneurs and influential businessmen, lest the marginalization of their interest would provoke them to form formidable opposition groups with enough financial capability to challenge the authority of CCP.
2. Improve competence.  CCP will establish additional mid-career training programs so that government officials from the provincial as well as the municipal level can acquire necessary knowledge to administrate more competently.
3. Rebuild the party apparatus to punish corruption as well as opposition movements with more severity.    
4. Increase “democracy” inside the Party and society.

In conclusion, Professor Shambaugh believed the significance of the 17th National Party Congress is about the re-legitimization and re-adaptation of CCP.  It will create a unique governance “hybrid” that allows Beijing to administrate more effectively.

This summary was prepared by Wayne Chen, Junior Fellow of the China Program.