Navigating a Turbulent Future? What to Expect in 2022

Wed. December 8th, 2021
Live on YouTube and Facebook

The Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center is hosting its fifth annual conference, titled Navigating a Turbulent Future? What to Expect in 2022 on Wednesday, December 8, and Thursday, December 9, 2021. The conference will consist of eight virtual discussions that will provide a look ahead to 2022, focusing on what Carnegie scholars and other experts believe will be the most significant and challenging issues facing the Middle East and North Africa in their interaction with international actors. As in previous years the conference will bring together scholars from Carnegie centers around the world—Beirut, Brussels, Moscow, Beijing, New Delhi, and Washington— as well as external experts and analysts from around the world to discuss the current state of affairs and weigh in on what they perceive will be the main trends to follow in the year ahead. 

The event will be held in English, live on YouTube @CarnegieMENA.

To watch the discussions live, please click on each panel individually in the program below.

Wed. December 8th, 2021 3:15 PM - 4:00 PM EST

A Global Outlook: Issues That Matter

Join us for the opening session on Wednesday, December 8, from 15:15 until 16:00 Beirut time, to learn more about our new president and the issues he intends to focus on.

The opening keynote of this conference is a fireside chat with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peaces’ new president, Florentino (Tino) Cuellar. In the exchange, Marwan Muasher and Maha Yahya hope to discuss with Cuellar the key global challenges he sees looming ahead, including growing global inequality and the ways in which the social and economic landscape of the United States is transforming the country’s foreign policy. They will also talk about Cuellar’s vision for the Carnegie Endowment moving into 2022 and beyond, in particular what he hopes will be its major contribution in the coming years.

Join us for the opening session on Wednesday, December 8, from 15:15 - 16:00 EET, to learn more about our new president and the issues he intends to focus on.

Marwan Muasher

Vice President for Studies

Mariano-Florentino (Tino) Cuéllar

President, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Maha Yahya

Director, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Wed. December 8th, 2021 4:15 PM - 5:30 PM EST

After the Pandemic: Back to Normal or a New Abnormal?

Join us on Wednesday, December 8 from 16:15-17:30 EET for a public panel discussion with Jihad Azour, Rosa Balfour, Evan A. Feigenbaum and Moíses Naím chaired by Zainab Usman.

With millions of deaths across the globe amid lockdowns and an economic slowdown, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted human life in an unprecedented way. The ongoing impact of the pandemic threatens to further disrupt economies, trigger protests and civil strife, and exacerbate the already growing gap between rich and poor. 

The panel aims to shed light on the pandemic’s long-term economic, political, and social consequences and policy options for growth and stability. 

Join us on Wednesday, December 8 from 16:15-17:30 EET for a public panel discussion with Jihad Azour, Rosa Balfour, Evan Feigenbaum and Mosises Naím chaired by Zainab Usman. The discussion will be held in English and livestreamed on YouTube and Facebook.

For more information, please contact Josiane Matar at josiane.matar@carnegie-mec.org.  

Rosa Balfour

Director, Carnegie Europe

Jihad Azour

IMF

Evan A. Feigenbaum

Vice President for Studies, Acting Director, Carnegie China

Moisés Naím

Distinguished Fellow

Zainab Usman

Senior Fellow and Director, Africa Program

Wed. December 8th, 2021 5:45 PM - 7:15 PM EST

The Middle East and the World in a Time of American Disengagement

Join us on Wednesday, December 8 from 17:45-19:15 EET for a public panel discussion with Dalia Dassa Kaye, Marwan Muasher, Karim Sadjadpour, Dmitri Trenin, Sinan Ülgen chaired by Michele Dunne.

While the United States retains significant stakes in the Middle East, the general direction of Washington’s dealings with the region in the past decade has been toward greater disengagement, particularly military disengagement. This has opened up spaces for a range of non-Arab regional and international actors to fill the vacuum, including Turkey, Iran, Israel, Russia and China. 

The panel will explore how each of these countries views its role in the region, its strategic ambitions, and how interactions among these regional and international actors—not to say with the United States—might affect regional stability.

Join us on Wednesday, December 8 from 17:45-19:15 EET for a public panel discussion with Dalia Dassa Kaye, Marwan Muasher, Karim Sadjadpour, Dmitri Trenin, Sinan Ülgen chaired by Michele Dunne. The discussion will be held in English and livestreamed on YouTube and Facebook.

For more information, please contact Josiane Matar at josiane.matar@carnegie-mec.org.  

Marwan Muasher

Vice President for Studies

Dalia Dassa Kaye

UCLA Berkeley

Karim Sadjadpour

Senior Fellow, Middle East Program

Dmitri Trenin

Director, Carnegie Moscow Center

Sinan Ülgen

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe

Michele Dunne

Nonresident Scholar, Middle East Program

Wed. December 8th, 2021 7:30 PM - 8:30 PM EST

The Growing Threat of Nuclear Proliferation

Join us on Wednesday, December 8 from 19:30-20:30 EET for a public panel discussion with Rose Gottemoeller, Mark Hibbs and George Perkovich chaired by Névine Schepers.

In spite of nuclear nonproliferation efforts, including punitive measures, the global threat from the spread of nuclear weapons remains very real. Experts in the field continue to warn of the growing potential for nuclear conflicts across the world, while major global powers continue to add new types of nuclear weapons to their arsenals. In the Middle East, the risks of nuclear proliferation are increasing even as efforts continue around the JCPOA.

The panel will examine the prospects for a successful nuclear nonproliferation effort under the Biden administration in the United States.

Join us on Wednesday, December 8 from 19:30-20:30 EET for a public panel discussion with Rose Gottemoeller, Mark Hibbs and George Perkovich chaired by Névine Schepers. The discussion will be held in English and livestreamed on YouTube and Facebook.

For more information, please contact Josiane Matar at josiane.matar@carnegie-mec.org.  

Mark Hibbs

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program

Rose Gottemoeller

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program

George Perkovich

Japan Chair for a World Without Nuclear Weapons, Vice President for Studies

Névine Schepers

Center for Security Studies

Thu. December 9th, 2021 3:00 PM - 4:15 PM EST

Maritime Insecurity Around the Arabian Peninsula

Join us on Thursday, December 9 from 15:00-16:15 EET for a public panel discussion with Abdullah Baaboud, Darshana M. Baruah and Paul Haenle chaired by Nilanthi Samaranayake.

The Persian Gulf, the Arabian Sea, and the Red Sea around the Arabian Peninsula are among the most congested maritime passageways in the world. They are especially important to China, which seeks to secure its energy resources and aspires to become a maritime power, as evident in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Most recently, these passages have seen a rise in military incidents tied to the rivalry between Iran on the one hand, and Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on the other. 

The panel will touch upon the impact of regional rivalries and tensions on maritime security and examine possible solutions, including the prospect of establishing a new regional and international security framework for the region.

Join us on Thursday, December 9 from 15:00-16:15 EET for a public panel discussion with Abdullah Baaboud, Darshana M. Baruah and Paul Haenle chaired by Nilanthi Samaranayake. The discussion will be held in English and livestreamed on YouTube and Facebook.

For more information, please contact Josiane Matar at josiane.matar@carnegie-mec.org.  

Abdullah Baabood

Nonresident Senior Scholar, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Darshana M. Baruah

Nonresident Scholar, South Asia Program

Paul Haenle

Maurice R. Greenberg Director’s Chair, Carnegie China

Nilanthi Samaranayake

CNA

Thu. December 9th, 2021 4:30 PM - 5:15 PM EST

Fireside Chat: A New Politics of Axes in the Middle East?

Join us on Thursday, December 9 from 16:30-17:15 EET for a fireside chat with Ghassan Salame and Maha Yahya.

The Middle Eastern regional order that the United States dominated after the end of the Cold War is changing rapidly. New regional and international actors are filling the void, so that a number of contending alignments of states have emerged. This situation harks back to the Middle East of the 1960s and 1970s, when the volatile region was shaped by what was described as the “politics of axes”.

This fireside chat will address the new alignments in the Middle East, where they are likely to lead, what they will mean for the region in the coming decade, and whether Arab states and their non-Arab neighbors can arrive at a diplomatic and security architecture that leads to greater stability.

Join us on Thursday, December 9 from 16:30-17:15 EET for a fireside chat with Ghassan Salame and Maha Yahya. The discussion will be held in English and livestreamed on YouTube and Facebook.

For more information, please contact Josiane Matar at josiane.matar@carnegie-mec.org

Maha Yahya

Director, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Ghassan Salamé

The Paris Institute of Political Studies

Thu. December 9th, 2021 9:00 AM - 10:00 AM EST

The Gulf States in Search of a Purpose as a Post-Hydrocarbons Era Nears

Join us on Thursday, December 9 from 17:30-18:30 EET for a public panel discussion with Yasmine Farouk, Jane Kinninmont and Kristian Ulrichsen chaired by Yezid Sayigh.

The increasing foreign policy activism of certain Gulf states in the past decade—the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Oman most notably—has challenged traditional hierarchies in the region, in which Saudi Arabia was the main driver in regional and international affairs. Today, other countries are searching for new roles as a post-hydrocarbons era looms in the coming decades. Rival ambitions helped push the isolation of Qatar in 2017–2021, while Saudi-Emirati differences have characterized more recent developments. At the same time, Gulf Cooperation Council states have had an uneasy relationship with Iran, which they fear aims to expand its influence at their expense. 

The panel will examine current trends in the Gulf and address how they might affect the broader Middle East in the coming years. 

Join us on Thursday, December 9 from 17:30-18:30 EET for a public panel discussion with Yasmine Farouk, Jane Kinninmont and Kristian Ulrichsen chaired by Yezid Sayigh. The discussion will be held in English and livestreamed on YouTube and Facebook.

For more information, please contact Josiane Matar at josiane.matar@carnegie-mec.org.  

Jane Kinninmont

European Leadership Network

Yasmine Farouk

Nonresident Scholar, Middle East Program

Yezid Sayigh

Senior Fellow, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Kristian Ulrichsen

Baker Institute

Thu. December 9th, 2021 7:00 PM - 8:00 PM EST

Regional Rivalry in Lebanon

Join us on Thursday, December 9 from 19:00-20:00 EET for a public panel discussion with Kim Ghattas, Emile Hokayem, Ziad Majed and Randa Slim chaired by Hisham Melhem.

As Lebanon’s financial and economic crisis worsens, state institutions are deteriorating. This has led outside powers to mediate in or seek to influence Lebanese affairs. Iran has considerable influence through its local ally Hezbollah. Since the August 4, 2020, explosion at Beirut Port, France has begun playing a more active role in Lebanon’s government-formation process. Russia and Qatar have also shown a stronger interest in the country’s crisis, even as Saudi Arabia remains disengaged from Lebanon. 

The panel will examine the respective agendas of these powers, and ask how the further fragmentation of the Lebanese state will impact their roles?

Join us on Thursday, December 9 from 19:00-20:00 EET for a public panel discussion with Kim Ghattas, Emile Hokayem, Ziad Majed and Randa Slim chaired by Hisham Melhem. The discussion will be held in English and livestreamed on YouTube and Facebook.

For more information, please contact Josiane Matar at josiane.matar@carnegie-mec.org.  

Emile Hokayem

International Institute for Strategic Studies

Kim Ghattas

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Ziad Majed

Randa Slim

The Middle East Institute

Hisham Melhem

An-Nahar Al Arabi

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
event speakers

Jihad Azour

IMF

Mr. Jihad Azour is the Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund where he oversees the Fund’s work in the Middle East, North Africa, Central Asia and Caucasus.

Abdullah Baabood

Nonresident Senior Scholar, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Abdullah Baabood is a nonresident senior scholar at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center. Baabood holds the chair of the state of Qatar for Islamic area studies and is a visiting professor at the Faculty of International Research and Education at Waseda University in Tokyo.

Rosa Balfour

Director, Carnegie Europe

Rosa Balfour is director of Carnegie Europe. Her fields of expertise include European politics, institutions, and foreign and security policy. Her current research focuses on the relationship between domestic politics and Europe’s global role. Previously, Balfour was a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. She was also director of the Europe in the World program at the European Policy Centre in Brussels and has worked as a researcher in Rome and London. She holds a PhD in International Relations from the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Darshana M. Baruah

Nonresident Scholar, South Asia Program

Darshana M. Baruah is a nonresident scholar with the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace where she directs the Indian Ocean Initiative.

Mariano-Florentino (Tino) Cuéllar

President, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Mariano-Florentino (Tino) Cuéllar is the tenth president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. A former justice of the Supreme Court of California, he has served three U.S. presidential administrations at the White House and in federal agencies, and was the Stanley Morrison Professor at Stanford University, where he held appointments in law, political science, and international affairs and led the university’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

Dalia Dassa Kaye

UCLA Berkeley

Dalia Dassa Kaye is senior fellow at UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations and the former director of the Center for Middle East Public Policy at the RAND Corporation.

Michele Dunne

Nonresident Scholar, Middle East Program

Michele Dunne was a nonresident scholar in Carnegie’s Middle East Program, where her research focuses on political and economic change in Arab countries, particularly Egypt, as well as U.S. policy in the Middle East.

Yasmine Farouk

Nonresident Scholar, Middle East Program

Yasmine Farouk is a nonresident scholar in the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Evan A. Feigenbaum

Vice President for Studies, Acting Director, Carnegie China

Evan A. Feigenbaum is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he oversees its work in Washington, Beijing, New Delhi, and Singapore on a dynamic region encompassing both East Asia and South Asia. He served twice as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and advised two Secretaries of State and a former Treasury Secretary on Asia.

Kim Ghattas

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Kim Ghattas was a nonresident senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Rose Gottemoeller

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program

Rose Gottemoeller is a nonresident senior fellow in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program. She also serves as lecturer at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution.

Paul Haenle

Maurice R. Greenberg Director’s Chair, Carnegie China

Paul Haenle held the Maurice R. Greenberg Director’s Chair at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and is a visiting senior research fellow at the East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore. He served as the White House China director on the National Security Council staffs of former presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama.

Mark Hibbs

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program

Hibbs is a Germany-based nonresident senior fellow in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program. His areas of expertise are nuclear verification and safeguards, multilateral nuclear trade policy, international nuclear cooperation, and nonproliferation arrangements.

Emile Hokayem

International Institute for Strategic Studies

Emile Hokayem is a senior fellow for Middle East Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Jane Kinninmont

European Leadership Network

Jane Kinninmont is the director of impact at the European Leadership Network.

Ziad Majed

Ziad Majed is an Associate Professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the American University of Paris, and the author of several books.

Hisham Melhem

An-Nahar Al Arabi

Hisham Melhem is a columnist and analyst at Annahar Al Arabi.

Marwan Muasher

Vice President for Studies

Marwan Muasher is vice president for studies at Carnegie, where he oversees research in Washington and Beirut on the Middle East. Muasher served as foreign minister (2002–2004) and deputy prime minister (2004–2005) of Jordan, and his career has spanned the areas of diplomacy, development, civil society, and communications.

Moisés Naím

Distinguished Fellow

Moisés Naím is a distinguished fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a best-selling author, and an internationally syndicated columnist.

George Perkovich

Japan Chair for a World Without Nuclear Weapons, Vice President for Studies

George Perkovich is the Japan chair for a world without nuclear weapons and vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, overseeing the Nuclear Policy Program and the Technology and International Affairs Program. He works primarily on nuclear strategy and nonproliferation issues, and security dilemmas among the United States, its allies, and their nuclear-armed adversaries. 

Nilanthi Samaranayake

CNA

Nilanthi Samaranayake is the director of CNA's Strategy and Policy Analysis Program.

Karim Sadjadpour

Senior Fellow, Middle East Program

Karim Sadjadpour is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on Iran and U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East.

Ghassan Salamé

The Paris Institute of Political Studies

Ghassan Salamé served as the UN Secretary-General's Special Representative (SRSG) and Head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UMSMIL) from 2017-2020.

Yezid Sayigh

Senior Fellow, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Yezid Sayigh is a senior fellow at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, where he leads the program on Civil-Military Relations in Arab States (CMRAS). His work focuses on the comparative political and economic roles of Arab armed forces, the impact of war on states and societies, the politics of postconflict reconstruction and security sector transformation in Arab transitions, and authoritarian resurgence.

Névine Schepers

Center for Security Studies

Névine Schepers is a senior researcher in the Swiss and Euro-Atlantic Security Team at the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich.

Randa Slim

The Middle East Institute

Slim is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and a non-resident fellow at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced and International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute.

Dmitri Trenin

Director, Carnegie Moscow Center

Trenin was director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from 2008 to early 2022.

Sinan Ülgen

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe

Ülgen is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, where his research focuses on Turkish foreign policy, transatlantic relations, international trade, economic security, and digital policy.

Kristian Ulrichsen

Baker Institute

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen is a Baker Institute fellow for the Middle East. Working across the disciplines of political science, international relations and international political economy, his research examines the changing position of Persian Gulf states in the global order, as well as the emergence of longer-term, nonmilitary challenges to regional security.

Zainab Usman

Senior Fellow and Director, Africa Program

Zainab Usman is a senior fellow and inaugural director of the Africa Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C. Her fields of expertise include institutions, economic policy, energy policy, and emerging economies in Africa.

Maha Yahya

Director, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Yahya is director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, where her research focuses on citizenship, pluralism, and social justice in the aftermath of the Arab uprisings.