Impact of Household Consumption Growth on China’s GDP Growth
If China’s average consumption growth rate is indeed 3–4 percent over the next five to ten years, that must also be the upper limit of China’s GDP growth rate.
· December 16, 2024
experts
Michael Pettis
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Carnegie China
about
Michael Pettis is a nonresident senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. An expert on China’s economy, Pettis is professor of finance at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, where he specializes in Chinese financial markets.
From 2002 to 2004, he also taught at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management and, from 1992 to 2001, at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business. He is a member of the Institute of Latin American Studies Advisory Board at Columbia University as well as the Dean’s Advisory Board at the School of Public and International Affairs.
Pettis worked on Wall Street in trading, capital markets, and corporate finance since 1987, when he joined the sovereign debt trading team at Manufacturers Hanover (now JPMorgan). Most recently, from 1996 to 2001, Pettis worked at Bear Stearns, where he was managing director principal heading the Latin American capital markets and the liability management groups. He has also worked as a partner in a merchant-banking boutique that specialized in securitizing Latin American assets and at Credit Suisse First Boston, where he headed the emerging markets trading team.
In addition to trading and capital markets, Pettis has been involved in sovereign advisory work, including for the Mexican government on the privatization of its banking system, the Republic of Macedonia on the restructuring of its international bank debt, and the South Korean Ministry of Finance on the restructuring of the country’s commercial bank debt.
He formerly served as a member of the Board of Directors of ABC-CA Fund Management Company, a Sino–French joint venture based in Shanghai. He is the author of several books, including The Great Rebalancing: Trade, Conflict, and the Perilous Road Ahead for the World Economy (Princeton University Press, 2013).
affiliations
education
MBA, Finance, Columbia University, MIA, Development Economics, Columbia UniversityAll work from Michael Pettis
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348 Results
Tariffs Are a Misunderstood Tool
Rather than treat tariffs as a species of evil that must always be resisted, economists should instead debate the conditions under which they are likely to be harmful versus those under which they are likely to be beneficial.
Fixing Global Trade: Why Tariffs and Trade Wars Aren’t Enough
Sophia Besch sits down with Michael Pettis to talk about the failures of our modern global trading system and how to fix them.
· December 5, 2024
Would U.S. Tariffs Shift Beijing’s Focus to Consumption?
Trade never clears incrementally. It only clears systemically, and external imbalances are always, and must always be, perfectly consistent with internal imbalances.
· November 19, 2024
The Economist Whose Contrarian Streak Has Gotten Attention in Biden and Trump Camps
An interview with Michael Pettis, a former investment banker turned music impresario who is quietly reshaping how Washington thinks about international trade.
Trade Intervention for Freer Trade: A Conversation with Michael Pettis
October 3, 2024
A new paper, Trade Intervention for Freer Trade, Michael Pettis, a nonresident senior fellow in at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Erica Hogan, a research assistant in the Carnegie Global Order and Institutions program, assess policies that could create a new global trading system that preserves the freedom of nations to direct their economies while harnessing the benefits of trade. Please join Stewart Patrick, director of the Global Order and Institutions Program, for a conversation with Michael Pettis on these and other issues.
Trade Intervention for Freer Trade
By targeting specific trade violations rather than balanced flows, global trade policy has been focusing on the wrong outcome. New trade rules are needed to create an international trading system in which comparative advantage allocates production.
· October 3, 2024
China Needs a Very High Consumption Share of GDP Growth
It will require many years of real determination by Beijing to drive the role of consumption to much higher levels if China is to rebalance in a nondisruptive way.
· September 9, 2024
Is Inflation a Monetary Phenomenon in China?
Because of the way credit expansion is managed, monetary expansion in China is directed mainly toward the supply side of the economy.
· August 21, 2024
What Is Driving China’s Long-Dated Bonds?
Banks and other fixed-income investors are buying long-date government bonds because the economy is struggling and better alternatives don’t exist.
· August 14, 2024
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