Dear Reader,

The Maghreb faces mounting climate challenges—rising temperatures, water scarcity, and extreme weather—threatening socioeconomic stability. However, regional cooperation remains elusive due to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly between Morocco and Algeria since the former joined the Abraham Accords in 2020. This rivalry has reinforced the securitization of climate issues, risking further destabilization.

In her paper on Morocco’s eastern region, Yasmine Zarhoule examines how the closure of the Morocco-Algeria border disrupted smuggling networks, leading the Moroccan authorities to pursue a securitization-driven development strategy focused on infrastructure and employment. While these efforts have helped maintain stability, water scarcity remains critical. Addressing this requires integrating local knowledge and ancestral water management techniques into broader climate adaptation strategies.

Frederic Wehrey and Andrew Bonney highlight how Morocco’s climate vulnerabilities are exacerbated by deficiencies in governance. Agricultural policies prioritize water-intensive crops, which benefits regime-connected landowners while marginalizing vulnerable populations. Meanwhile, climate-friendly energy projects suffer from mismanagement, and some mitigation plans, such as using scarce water resources for green hydrogen production, may actually exacerbate rather than alleviate existing challenges.

Other Maghreb countries face similar pressures. My research on Tunisia explores how severe droughts, coupled with Algeria’s extensive dam construction on transboundary rivers and intensified exploitation of the shared underground aquifer with Tunisia and Libya, have significantly depleted Tunisia’s water reserves. This has led to widespread food and water insecurity, particularly in regions bordering Algeria. This has deepened Tunisia’s dependence on illicit food imports from Algeria and, with it, the country’s regional marginalization.

Addressing climate challenges requires a framework for regional cooperation, yet this remains unlikely without a reduction in Algerian-Moroccan tensions and progress on the Western Sahara conflict. Sarah Yerkes and Nathalie Triche suggest that the Trump administration could leverage its close ties with Moroccan King Mohammed VI, Europe’s recent shift toward recognizing Morocco’s 2007 autonomy plan as the most viable resolution, and declining international support for the Polisario Front, to broker a long-awaited settlement.

As climate change, security, and geopolitics become increasingly interconnected across the Maghreb and the broader Middle East and North Africa region, these dynamics will continue to unfold in complex and unexpected ways. I encourage you to follow Carnegie’s work, grounded as always in rigorous research and local nuance.

Sincerely,

Hamza Meddeb
Research Fellow
Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Morocco and Climate Change

De-Peripheralizing Morocco’s East in the Face of Climate Change and Border Securitization

Climate change is challenging North Africa, particularly with water scarcity. Border towns between Morocco and Algeria face existential questions about their viability unless something changes soon.

by Yasmine Zarhloule

Morocco's Climate Vulnerability

Beyond the Green Transition: Governance and Climate Vulnerability in Morocco

The Moroccan government has set forth an ambitious agenda to harness its renewable energy potential. But effective climate adaptation requires a greater inclusion of independent grassroots actors.

By Frederic Wehrey and Andrew Bonney

Tunisia's Long-Standing Vulnerabilities

Tunisia’s Climate Crisis, Economic Downturn, and Growing Dependency on Algeria

Since 2017, Tunisia has experienced intensified climate change effects, including severe drought. President Kais Saied’s governance failures have only exacerbated the country's long-standing vulnerabilities.

By Hamza Meddeb

Egypt's Climate Challenges

Egypt’s Challenges and Opportunities in Climate-Related Finance and Governance

Egypt’s vulnerability to climate change is compounded by its economic struggles, making it difficult to adequately fund climate resilience and sustainability efforts.

By Selma​​​​ Khalil and Amr Hamzawy

Lebanon and Captagon Trafficking

Double Dealers: Lebanon and the Risks of Captagon Trafficking

Lebanon’s financial collapse and the Syrian conflict have allowed for the growth of an illicit economy, giving rise to a new breed of drug traffickers with ties to Lebanese parties and influence in the security forces. To address this, the country must adopt a comprehensive approach.

By Mohanad Hage Ali

Ansar Allah and Somalia

Dhows, Drones, and Dollars: Ansar Allah’s Expansion into Somalia

The Yemeni group, like its main backer Iran, has established contacts with al-Shabab and the Islamic State in Somalia, showing how pragmatism prevails when geopolitical goals demand it, and all sides share an enmity for the United States and Israel.

By Ibrahim Jalal and Adnan al-Jabarni

Western Sahara Conflict

Trump’s Lesser-Known Deal of the Century? Resolving the Western Sahara Conflict

The new administration has an opportunity to broker an end to fifty years of violence and tension.

By Sarah Yerkes and Natalie Triche

The EU and Undocumented Migration 

Migrants at the Gate: Europe Tries to Curb Undocumented Migration

The EU has responded to unwanted arrivals with ever-stricter security measures, an approach that has both led to increased human rights violations and failed to stem the migratory tide.

By Yasmine Zarhloule

Media and Events

• Maha Yahya and Marwan Muasher on the Arab Summit Plan for Gaza, Watch the fireside chat
• Karim Sadjadpour on Rebuilding Gaza with Trump in Charge, Listen to the interview
• The political dynamics of Captagon in Lebanon and Syria, and the implications of Assad’s downfall, Watch the panel discussion
• Sarah Yerkes on Tunisia and the IMF, Listen to the interview
• Amr Hamzawy on Egypt’s Foreign Policy, Read the article
• Climate Change in the Maghreb: The Challenge of Regional Cooperation and its Alternatives, Watch the panel discussion
• Marwan Muasher on the Arab Proposal to Rebuild Gaza, Watch the interview
• Mohanad Hage Ali on the Challenges in Damascus, Watch the interview