Dear Reader,
Hope and despair have always been intertwined in the Arab world.
On December 8, Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorship abruptly collapsed after fourteen years of civil war, crimes against humanity, and mass displacement. Although many Syrians have a renewed sense of hope, despair is emerging alongside it, as radical Islamist militias, armed by neighboring Türkiye and formerly associated with al-Qaeda and ISIS, are stepping in as the new leaders of Syria.
The people of the Levant and the wider Arab world share this anguish. In the Palestinian occupied territories, despair persists over the continued deadly war in the Gaza Strip that has fallen out of the headlines as global attention centers on Syria. In Lebanon, a country battered by decades of brutal Syrian interference and wars between Hezbollah and Israel, hopes for a new, noninterventionist Syria coexist with fears about the terrorist origins and the violent nature of Damascus’s new leaders.
Iraqis’ misfortunes after the U.S. invasion in 2003 have also been linked to Syrian developments, including the rise of Islamist terrorism, the destabilizing impacts of Shiite militias backed by Iran, and the constant movement of displaced communities across the borders. They fear the potential domino effect of instability in Syria and whether Iran will resolve to challenge Damascus’s new rulers using its allies among the Iraqi militias. Jordanians contrast Iraqis’ stress with a hopeful lens. King Abdullah II’s government has embraced the change of leaders, convening an international conference to mobilize economic and diplomatic support for Syria.
In the wider Arab world, the concurrence of hope and despair has also shaped popular views. For some, Assad’s escape has evoked memories of the democratic transition euphoria following the 2011 Arab uprisings, while others are recalling the post-uprising civil wars such as in Libya and Yemen. The horrifying stories coming out of Assad’s prisons have captured the collective attention of Arabs, leading to public outrage and reckoning with the long and hidden histories of human rights abuses in our part of the world. Syria also has fallen victim to Israeli military operations that have resulted in the occupation of additional Syrian territory in Mount Hermon and the demilitarized zone in the 1967 occupied Golan Heights, to direct and proxy Turkish military interference, and to U.S. attacks on ISIS strongholds. These foreign interventions have led to an Arab nationalist outrage over the inability of some Arab countries to defend their territories, as well as the collapse of intra-Arab security arrangements resulting in the three non-Arab countries of the Middle East—Israel, Turkey, and Iran—becoming the regional hegemons.
Such is the complex reality of the intertwining of hope and despair in our part of the world following December 8. As ever, we Arabs will continue to be torn between conflicting aspirations: democratic transition and national sovereignty, inclusive social contracts and sustainable developmental trajectories, peaceful coexistence with our neighbors and outrage over lost Arab pride and role.
Dr. Amr Hamzawy
Senior Fellow and Director of the Middle East Program
Syria
Bashar al-Assad was long seen as the primary obstacle to a political transition in Syria. With him gone, Syrians now have an opportunity to establish a new national framework for their country’s future.
By Armenak Tokmajyan
Palestine-Israel
Civic space is shrinking across the globe. Every year, human rights defenders, humanitarians, social justice activists, and their organizations face new threats in their ability to advocate for change, organize campaigns, or protest against oppressive policies. Nowhere is this crisis of civil society more acute than in the context of dissent and speech related to Palestine–Israel.
Edited by Zaha Hassan and H. A. Hellyer
Syria
Tehran may have assumed there would be opportunities to exploit in Syria’s likely instability in the future.
By Nicole Grajewski
Climate Change
The country will need timely, concerted, and inclusive governance plans to meet the challenges posed by climate change.
By Joy Arkeh and Selma Khalil
Syria
Why did Bashar al-Assad’s armed forces fail to act, unlike those in Egypt, Libya, Algeria, and Sudan?
By Yezid Sayigh
Media & Events
- Syria in Focus: Regional and International Dynamics at a Crossroads Watch the panel discussion
- The Great Powers and Security Competition in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa Watch the panel
- "Middle East Power Balance Shift," Karim Sadjadpour Watch the interview
- "On GPS: Who will govern Syria after Assad’s fall?", Karim Sadjadpour Watch the interview
- "Why Russia & Iran May Not Be Able To Bail Out Assad In Syria & The Turkey Factor Explained," Yezid Sayigh Watch the interview
- "On GPS: What Assad’s collapse means for Iran and Israel," Karim Sadjadpour Watch the interview
- Dissent, Protest, and Palestine-Israel: Restrictions on Civic Space During Violent Conflict Watch the panel discussion
- In Brief: Biden’s Last Chance at Foreign Policy Moves, by Robert Manning, Yun Sun, Jeremy Shapiro, and Zaha Hassan Read the article