Iraq's future depends on whether the political factions that dominate the country can find it in their interest to forge a real compromise or if they will conclude that they would benefit more from going in separate directions.

The recent election of Osama Nujeifi as speaker of the Iraqi parliament was the first step toward ending an eight-month political deadlock, but Nujeifi’s well-known opposition to Kurdish nationalist claims could alienate Kurdish politicians.

The agreement signed on November 11, intended to pave the way for the formation of an Iraqi government, has already proven to be extremely fragile and there is a strong possibility that it may fail.

The Sadrists' endorsement of Nouri al-Maliki has placed him one step closer to retaining his post as prime minister, yet political wrangling and negotiating have escalated between all major Iraqi parties and a new Iraqi government may not be formed any time soon.

As the political stalemate in Iraq continues to drag on, the major parties and politicians continue to attempt to wrangle the greatest amount of power for themselves even as they continue to break constitutionally mandated deadlines.

The formation of a new Iraqi government may still be months away, not because the issues to be negotiated will take time, but because serious negotiations do not appear to have started yet.

The post-election phase in Iraq appears even more difficult than anticipated, postponing improvements in Iraq’s long-term security and economic development.

Currently, no single party in Iraq has enough seats to form a new government. Any new government would need votes of confidence from multiple coalitions and ethnic groups. Even the leaders of the two coalitions with the largest number of seats may not have the support needed to become prime minister.

Three weeks after the election, the Iraqi High Election Commission announced the final vote count and the apportionment of seats among the lists. The announcement ends the suspense but opens a period of intense negotiating among parties which could be marred by violence.

Iraq’s election campaign is marked by the usual mixture of unrealistic promises, verbal attacks against competitors, and attempts by parties to appropriate symbols that do not properly belong to any one faction, as well as, more worryingly, the certainty voiced by all alliances that the elections will be marred by fraud.