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Sergey Vakulenko
Sergey Vakulenko
Sergey Vakulenko
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
Sergey Vakulenko

about


Sergey Vakulenko is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.  He has twenty-five years of experience in the oil and gas industry as an economist, manager, executive, and consultant, including Royal Dutch Shell and IHS CERA. Until February 2022, he served as head of strategy and innovations at Gazprom Neft.


All work from Sergey Vakulenko

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28 Results
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (5L) poses for a family photo with representatives of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members states
article
Russia’s Great Energy Game in the Middle East

Russia has largely inherited the Soviet Union’s Middle East foreign policy. China may be best positioned to take advantage of this historical relationship.

· November 12, 2024
Is a “Shadow Fleet” of Oil Tankers Really Circumventing the Russian Price Cap?

With a quarter of the global tanker fleet transporting Russian cargo in 2024, the so-called “shadow fleet” is neither as separate nor as obscure as might have been thought.

· September 27, 2024
A Naval Blockade of Russian Oil Exports Risks a Military Showdown

The sanctions deployed against Russia have failed to break Vladimir Putin’s war machine, and now the West is looking for ways to make them more potent. In doing so, Western policymakers should remain clear-eyed about potential risks and side effects.

· July 5, 2024
In The Media
in the media
The Reality of Russian Resilience

In response to “Why Ukraine Should Keep Striking Russian Oil Refineries” by Michael Liebreich, Lauri Myllyvirta, and Sam Winter-Levy.

· June 25, 2024
Foreign Affairs
Source: GENYA SAVILOV/AFP via Getty Images
What is the Real Cost and Benefit of Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Refining?

The bulk of the current analysis of the attacks on refineries is celebratory, with a strong element of confirmation bias—and that is a classical folly that prevents learning. Russia’s refining sector, unlike its Black Sea Fleet, has proven to be resilient to the recent type of attacks, rather than the Achilles’ heel of the Russian economy that many were hoping it would be.

· June 25, 2024
Video of Sergey Vakulenko discussing Ukraine's drone attacks on the Russian oil sector and their degree of strategic success.
video
How Successful Were Ukraine's Drone Attacks on Russian Oil?

Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center's nonresident scholar Sergey Vakulenko discusses Ukraine's drone attacks on the Russian oil sector and assesses the degree to which they have been strategically successful.

· June 12, 2024
article
Russia Has the Resources for a Long War in Ukraine

Vladimir Putin has reason to be confident that Russia can maintain current military spending levels for a relatively long time. This is bad news for Ukraine, its Western partners and neighbors, and overall global security.

· May 16, 2024
How Serious Are Ukrainian Drone Attacks for Russia?

If the scale of Ukrainian drone attacks is maintained at the levels of March and Russian air defenses do not improve, Ukraine will be able to keep damaging Russian refineries faster than they can be fixed, slowly but steadily eroding the country’s refining capacity.

· April 5, 2024
The Final Countdown: Will Russia and Ukraine Renew Gas Transit Deal?

Extending the transport of Russian gas via Ukraine after 2024 would likely benefit both Russia and Ukraine. Stopping the flow of gas, on the other hand, would be painful for whichever side initiates it.

· February 15, 2024
Russia’s Oil Industry Threatened by Ukrainian Drones, Western Sanctions

Ukrainian aerial attacks could cause significant problems as international isolation makes it harder for Russian companies to fix broken equipment.

· January 26, 2024