Keen to avoid an armed conflict on its own territory, Minsk still has a strong interest in preventing any further escalation of the tense standoff between Russia and NATO in the Baltic region.

Lukashenko’s post-August turn away from the West and toward Russia is no guarantee that Belarus will not return to a multi-vector foreign policy sometime soon.

The old rules of Belarus and Russia’s alliance may no longer apply. Will the two neighbors find a way to update them?

Instead of looking for ways to punish Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, the EU should focus on how to improve long-term relations.

Dialogue between Brussels and Minsk has intensified, but the ongoing rapprochement does not represent a sufficiently strategic or comprehensive policy.