Source: Carnegie
Disestablishment
Reprinted by permission of The New Republic,
August 17, 1998
A
Tangled Web: The Making of Foreign Policy in the Nixon Presidency
by William Bundy (Hill and Wang, 647 pp., $35)
The historical fallacy that most pervades discussions
of American foreign policy these days is that it was all so much simpler during
the cold war. In contrast to today's strategic ambiguities, some imagine, American
strategic imperatives during the cold war were clear and easily comprehended.
In contrast to the partisan squabbling that characterizes foreign policy debates
today, there was once a broad and unshakable consensus in the United States
about what needed to be done to achieve those imperatives. You would think we
all marched together under a single banner throughout the cold war.
This, of course, is nonsense. Early in the
cold war, and again after 1968, the political battles over foreign policy were
far more vicious than they are today. Still, it is useful nonsense. Voltaire
once called history a pack of tricks that the present plays on the past, and
while such historicism is often misapplied, in this case the misconstruction
of the cold war has served some useful purposes. Above all, it has helped to
cover the tracks of those who emphatically did not participate in the alleged
"consensus," and who generally argued that the problem facing the
United States was less the Soviet Union than certain Republican presidents.
Today it seems that we were all cold warriors; but there was a time, not long
ago, when the term was an indictment, an epithet to be hurled at those engaged
in the hard business of confronting the Soviet Union by those recommending accommodation.
There was a time, in short, when something called the liberal foreign policy
establishment still existed.
To understand fully the origins and the purposes
of William Bundy's new book, which is a lengthy assault on the foreign policies
of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger, it is necessary to recall the strange
career of the liberal foreign policy establishment during the cold war. Bundy
is the living embodiment of that establishment. He is among the last of a generation
that influenced thinking about American foreign policy for much of the past
fifty years.
A graduate of Groton, Yale, and Harvard Law
School before joining a Washington law firm, Bundy joined the CIA in the early
1950s, then served as an assistant secretary of defense under Robert McNamara,
and then as assistant secretary of state for East Asia in the last five years
of the Johnson administration. The older brother of McGeorge Bundy and the son-in-
law of Dean Acheson, Bundy counted among his powerful patrons McNamara and Allen
Dulles. From 1972 to 1984, moreover, he was editor of Foreign Affairs, the journal
of the Council on Foreign Relations and in those years the Scripture of the
liberal foreign policy establishment.
Bundy was emblematic of the establishment in
more than pedigree. He also traversed the same ideological path over four decades
that the establishment as a whole traveled. He began as a liberal anti-Communist
in the Truman and Acheson mold. Like the rest of his comrades, he retained that
staunch anti- Communist worldview right through Kennedy's introduction of thousands
of American military advisers into Vietnam and the vast escalation of American
involvement in the war under Johnson. Indeed, Bundy was among the principal
architects of those policies in the Johnson years.
In his preface, Bundy modestly describes his
government work as including "five-plus years in the State Department,
devoted to policy in East Asia." This is falsely modest. As Kennedy's assistant
secretary of defense and as Johnson's assistant secretary of state for East
Asia, Bundy was one of a half-dozen or so of the most important shapers of American
policy in Vietnam throughout the 1960s.
He was also on the hawkish side. As far back
as 1961, he supported the commitment of combat forces to Vietnam, in what he
described in an internal memorandum as an "early and hard-hitting operation"
to boost the fortunes of the then-besieged Ngo Dinh Diem. In 1964, he recommended
blockading Haiphong harbor as a first step in an escalating policy of pressure
on North Vietnam that was to include bombing railways, roads, and industrial
complexes.
Bundy led a team of officials who recommended
what was then considered the middle-of-the-road option between withdrawal and
a larger commitment of American troops. Their plan called for "graduated
military moves" in Laos and in North Vietnam: this would express the resolve
of the United States to friends and foes, but it would also leave the United
States with enough flexibility "to escalate or not, and to quicken the
pace or not." It was, in sum, the kind of incremental approach to the war
that Johnson would pursue throughout the remainder of his term. The actions
he proposed against the North, Bundy argued at the time, would "show all
of Southeast Asia ... that we will take strong measures to prevent the spread
of Communism specifically, and the grab of territory generally, in the area."
By 1964, according to the historian H.R. McMaster,
Bundy had become one of a handful of civilians who took charge of the minutest
details of American military planning in Vietnam. It was Bundy, as well as McNamara's
aide John McNaughton, who "would determine the right 'mix' of military
and diplomatic measures necessary to attain a settlement in Vietnam." And
it was Bundy who "would then supervise military operations to 'tighten
the screw' on North Vietnam's leaders." Bundy was also one of the principal
drafters of what became known as the Tonkin Gulf resolution. In the same memorandum
in which he recommended the military strikes against North Vietnam, Bundy acknowledged
that such actions might "normally require" a declaration of war, but
that to ask Congress for such a "blunt instrument" would cause an
uproar--hence the idea of a congressional "resolution" which would
give the president broad authority to act as he deemed necessary.
Over time, Bundy's enthusiasm for expanding
the war seems to have dulled, as it became clear that North Vietnam was simply
not responding to the " signals" that American military actions were
designed to send. But he did not dissent from the broad thrust of Johnson's
policy, even at the end. To put it another way, William Bundy was not George
Ball. Ball, in fact, occasionally looked to Bundy for support in his efforts
to turn Johnson around, believing that Bundy shared his misgivings. But as one
historian of the Johnson years has written, based on interviews with Ball, "even
when Bill Bundy sometimes sounded sympathetic ... he came down on the forceful
side. And when Ball tried to bell him by asking for help on a peace plan, Bundy
dodged." Bundy remained to the end a loyal and politically active supporter
of Johnson.
Like the rest of the liberal foreign policy
establishment, then, Bundy was himself a determined cold warrior throughout
the 1950s and 1960s. He helped march the country headlong into the Vietnam War
with eyes wide open, determined to stop the spread of communism in Southeast
Asia as part of the broader strategy of containing the Soviet Union and maintaining
America's position as preeminent leader of the free world. Circa 1965, you could
count on the fingers of one hand the members of the establishment who took a
different view of the stakes in Vietnam and of the policies necessary to defend
American interests there. In that year, at a famous meeting of the " Wise
Men," a group that included Dean Acheson and Clark Clifford, all agreed,
according to Robert Dallek, that Johnson had "no choice but to expand the
war to prevent a Communist victory that would jeopardize America's national
security around the world."
In the last two years of the Johnson administration,
however, the liberal foreign policy establishment began to crack. McNamara,
Clifford, McGeorge Bundy, and even Acheson swung from ebullient optimism to
dark pessimism about the possibility of concluding the war in a way that could
preserve South Vietnam's independence. Many of these officials and advisers
believed that Johnson was deceiving the nation about the prospects for a successful
conclusion to the war because he did not want to appear to be "soft"
on communism as he headed into the 1968 election year.
But their private anguish rarely surfaced in
their public statements; and the fact that they were de facto abettors of Johnson's
deception caused many of them to suffer a crisis of conscience, which was exacerbated
by the harsh criticism they were experiencing from within their own elite segment
of American society.
As Stanley Karnow has written, "these
bureaucrats would return home in the evening to face puzzled or even defiant
wives and children. ... They had college-age sons and daughters who attended
'teach-ins' or participated in anti-war demonstrations, and disputes now poisoned
the dinner conversation."
John McNaughton, a Harvard Law professor working
for McNamara, who had shared both his boss's hard-line views and his mounting
anxiety as the war dragged on inconclusively, worried that "a feeling is
widely and strongly held" around the country that "'the Establishment'
is out of its mind." And, indeed, during most of the last two years of
Johnson's second term, the liberal establishment figures who remained in the
Johnson administration were consumed by an ultimately futile effort to extricate
themselves and the country from the maw of the monster that they had created.
As it happened, they were themselves extricated
from the Vietnam disaster by the election of Richard Nixon. One can scarcely
imagine what they would have done or thought about the war, or about American
foreign policy generally, had Hubert Humphrey been elected in 1968. Judging
by his track record, William Bundy might well have stayed on, with others, to
continue along the same tortuous path followed by their Republican successors.
But instead the liberal establishment was saved--saved, that is, from further
responsibility for the conduct of the war in Vietnam, and, more broadly, from
the conduct of the cold war they had once fought so zealously.
With the election of Nixon, the liberals were
free to begin the arduous process of self-rehabilitation, free to salve their
consciences, free to oppose the war they had started, free to renounce the vigorous
anti-Communist worldview that had guided their actions for nearly three decades.
In the 1970s and '80s, prominent figures of the liberal foreign policy establishment,
such as Robert McNamara and McGeorge Bundy, made headlines with their dovish
positions on such issues as the first use of nuclear weapons, the struggle against
communism in the Third World, and detente with the Soviet Union.
William Bundy's transformation was a bit less
radical. In his occasional articles in Foreign Affairs, Bundy tended toward
moderate positions on the cold war, his style analytical rather than polemical.
Still, his views on the conduct of the cold war were evolving. This was especially
the case in the matter of Vietnam, where Bundy made a laborious effort to abandon
his previous views without quite repudiating them. In an article in Foreign
Affairs in 1971, he argued that while it might have been right to believe that
the United States had "vital" interests in Vietnam in 1965, when "the
great-power forces within the area were seen in starkly bipolar terms,"
the intervening years had brought a change in Southeast Asia that lessened America's
stake in the outcome. "What we care about," he wrote, "and should
have always defined as our objective, can be simply stated as 'conditions for
lasting peace' there.... This goal should be seen affirmatively and above all
in terms of the aspirations of the 250 million people whose hopes and fears,
however inarticulate and vague, define the true tides of the future." So
much for showing "all of Southeast Asia ... that we will take strong measures
to prevent the spread of Communism."
Like the rest of his liberal establishment
comrades, though, Bundy was prepared to be more polemical when the subjects
were Richard Nixon and his foreign policy. Both Nixon and Kissinger were ripe
targets for the establishment's wrath after 1968. Nixon, a crass and conservative
politician from California who had made his career denouncing the errors of
establishment giants such as Dean Acheson, was certainly not one of them, a
fact that the president seems to have resented acutely every day of his presidency.
Bundy and others did not forget that Nixon had once called Acheson a professor
in the "college of cowardly Communist containment." Bundy had himself
been a target of Joseph McCarthy's scurrility, a victim of the kind of red-baiting
which, Bundy once wrote bitterly in Foreign Affairs, had been "condoned
(or more)" by Nixon and other leading Republicans.
That Nixon rose to power as a result of the
liberal establishment's failure in Vietnam was especially galling for those
sent into political exile in 1968. And the fact that Nixon and Kissinger soon
fell into the very swamp in which their predecessors had been mired engendered
predictable feelings of schadenfreude. But this was nothing compared to the
joy of seeing Nixon immolate himself in the Watergate scandal. Nixon's fall
was an unexpected, delicious pay-back for his conquest of the liberal establishment
in 1968.
It was also more than that. Nixon's colossal
failure as president had the effect of washing away memories of the liberal
establishment's own colossal failures. It even provided a kind of back-handed
vindication. The liberal establishment may have erred, even seriously erred,
in Vietnam; but at least they were not crooks. History, they had reason to hope,
would ultimately treat them more kindly than it would the discredited Nixon
and Kissinger.
But history has a mind of its own, and a funny
thing happened on the way to the end of the cold war. The liberal establishment's
return to power in the late 1970s under Jimmy Carter proved almost as disastrous
as its service under Lyndon Johnson. In the twelve years that followed Carter's
ignominious defeat, Reagan and Bush and their administrations, populated by
numerous former Nixon appointees and Kissinger aides, steered the country successfully
through the conclusion of the cold war. And in the course of that Republican
triumph, the reputations of Nixon and Kissinger were resurrected.
Nixon came to be viewed, across the political
spectrum, as a wise old senior statesman. He may have been a crook, but he was
a keen student of international relations. Even Bill Clinton paid Nixon such
a tribute at his well-attended and much-celebrated funeral. Kissinger, meanwhile,
did not merely transcend the liberal establishment: he transplanted it. By the
end of the 1990s, Kissingerian realism became the dominant strain of thought
in Washington think tanks and even at the Council on Foreign Relations. Bundy's
own Foreign Affairs became the mouthpiece, not of the old liberal establishment,
but of conservative realpolitik. Even President Clinton has adopted a Kissingerian
view of the world, especially in Asia, where his policies have blended Carter's
strategic vision with Nixon's moral vision, which is quite an achievement.
By the 1990s, in short, the once-powerful liberal
foreign policy establishment was, for all practical purposes, defunct. One need
not imagine the bitterness with which the few remaining scions of that faded
dynasty greeted this cruel historical reversal. In A Tangled Web, Bundy
has taken it upon himself to right this cosmic injustice, and to fire what may
well be the liberal establishment's last salvo in this grand historical feud.
Bundy's is a carefully calibrated attack. In
the face of the broad modern consensus about the wisdom and the skill with which
Nixon and Kissinger handled foreign policy, it would have been a serious tactical
error to write a condemnatory screed that too openly aimed at settling old scores.
Instead, Bundy has affected to take the high road. He has written a serious,
ostensibly nonpartisan history of the events and the people who shaped foreign
policy in the Nixon years, parceling out praise and blame in what might seem
to be equal measure, giving Nixon and Kissinger credit where credit is due,
in the expectation that in those many, many instances where he condemns them
he will, as a demonstrably dispassionate historian, be all the more persuasive.
Indeed, Bundy spends most of his book merely
recounting the diplomatic history of the Nixon years in an entirely straightforward
fashion--so straightforward, in fact, as to be unoriginal in both narrative
and interpretation on many of the issues he covers. He relies almost exclusively
on secondary sources, and on works that were considered standards in the field
fifteen and twenty years ago. Bundy's work is in no respect, therefore, a "new"
history of the Nixon years. It is the same old history, and even readers who
consider themselves only reasonably well-informed about this period in history
will learn little that they did not already know.
But that is not Bundy's concern. In his preface,
Bundy acknowledges that he has aimed his book chiefly at a generation of readers
who "were not then alive or old enough to follow foreign policy."
And well he might. For these readers may be ignorant not only of the part played
in history by Nixon and Kissinger, but also of the role that Bundy and the liberal
establishment played in shaping the international and domestic contours of the
era in which Nixon and Kissinger held power. Such readers may not even know
that there are scores to settle, or that this old Kennedy and Johnson hand,
for all his studied judiciousness, is out for revenge.
Bundy levels three broad criticisms of Nixon's
and Kissinger's conduct of foreign policy, two of which are as unexceptionable
as they are unoriginal. Nobody will be shocked to learn that Nixon and Kissinger
made important foreign policy decisions with a keen eye to their domestic political
consequences: Nixon's famous opening to China and his move toward detente with
the Soviet Union, the two centerpieces of Nixonian foreign policy, were not
undertaken merely for their own sake, Bundy shows, but were also, and perhaps
even primarily, a way to keep liberal critics at bay while the administration
tried to pursue its vision of an honorable settlement in Vietnam. Nixon wanted
to get reelected, and this, Bundy points out, "strongly influenced the
timing and sometimes the substance of his policies."
This is not exactly a major revelation. Nor
does Bundy bother to ask whether such behavior distinguishes Nixon from most
other presidents, including the one who now inhabits the White House. An uncharitable
reader might ask whether Nixon was any worse than Johnson in this respect. For
those who still doubt that this was the case, recent studies by Robert Dallek
and H. R. McMaster have demonstrated that Johnson's policies in Vietnam, especially
in the election years 1964 and 1968, were carefully and deliberately devised
for their political impact at home, and much to the detriment of the successful
prosecution of that war. As McMaster writes, Johnson in 1964 "did not conceive
of Vietnam as primarily a national security issue. Rather, he saw it mainly
as the issue that could cost him the election."
Indeed, Bundy was himself no stranger to the
commingling of politics and foreign policy. His proposals for escalating the
war in 1964 called for attacks on North Vietnam to begin after election day.
And during the campaign of 1964, Assistant Secretary of State Bundy drafted
talking points for campaign speeches and explained how, in McMaster's words,
Democratic speakers "might talk around the conflicting priorities of getting
their president elected and preserving their freedom of action in Vietnam."
A similar point can be made about Bundy's second
charge, that Nixon and Kissinger consistently resorted to deception of the public
and of Congress in matters of foreign policy. They tried to hide actions they
feared would be too controversial; they often gave one set of reasons for their
actions in public while privately having in mind a different rationale; they
covered up policy failures; they oversold successes. This is the "tangled
web" of Bundy's title, derived from Walter Scott's famous couplet: "Oh,
what a tangled web we weave/When first we practice to deceive!" According
to Bundy, this pattern of deception led ultimately to the destruction not only
of Nixon's presidency, but of the entire foreign policy structure that he and
Kissinger tried to put into place. That "structure of peace," Bundy
argues, was "oversold, timed and framed too much for domestic political
effect."
No charge sticks more easily to the man who
gave us Watergate than the charge of deception. And here, at least, there is
no question that the magnitude of Nixon's deceptions was pretty spectacular.
Still, if one attends only to the question of Nixon's deception in foreign policy,
as Bundy asks us to do, it is not at all clear that Nixon's and Kissinger's
deceptions were significantly greater or more egregious than those of many others
who held their positions.
Were they more egregious than Roosevelt's evasions
of the Neutrality Act before World War II? Or, more to the point in Bundy's
case, were they more egregious than the manifold deceptions of the Johnson administration
in its conduct of the Vietnam War?
To illustrate his case against Nixon most starkly,
Bundy opens his narrative with a meticulously detailed account of the "Chennault
Affair," a sordid little tale about how the Nixon campaign, using Republican
loyalist Anna Chennault as an intermediary, sounded out President Nguyen Van
Thieu of Vietnam about the possibility of delaying entering peace talks on the
eve of the 1968 election.
According to Bundy, the story demonstrates
that Nixon stole the election from Hubert Humphrey by means of a "covert
operation" which was a "preview of techniques used at Watergate."
We are to conclude, presumably, that the entire Nixon presidency, not just the
last few years, lacked legitimacy, and that the liberal establishment's defeat
in 1968 was a fluke. The "Chennault Affair" was the "October
Surprise" of its day.
But Bundy's one-sided account of the "Chennault
Affair" actually reveals both less and more than he intends. There does
not seem to be any doubt that the Nixon campaign did pass messages to Thieu
indicating that his refusal to join Johnson's proposed peace talks would be
welcomed by Nixon. In the feverish last weeks of the campaign, the Johnson camp
knew that the Nixon camp was engaged in some such skullduggery with Thieu. And
they knew it because Johnson had ordered Chennault put under FBI surveillance
and her phone tapped. Although they doubted whether Nixon himself was directly
involved, officials in the White House and Humphrey's advisers nevertheless
contemplated making their accusations against Nixon public in the last days
of the campaign. The man who, on November 3, gave the Democratic candidate Humphrey
the full briefing on what the FBI wiretaps had turned up was none other than
the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia, William Bundy. Humphrey decided
not to raise the issue publicly, in no small part because he knew "it would
have been difficult to explain how we knew about what Chennault had done."
Difficult indeed.
The result was that reports of the "Chennault
Affair" did not break until after the election, Humphrey lost, and Johnson
officials have been nursing a grudge ever since. Whatever one may think about
Nixon's role in the matter, however, Bundy's claim that it cost Humphrey the
election is a hallucination brought on by three decades of fevered hatred. After
all, as Bundy himself acknowledges, the Nixon campaign's message to Thieu was
redundant. Thieu had no intention of going along with Johnson's peace proposal
before the election. He believed it was a campaign ploy for American domestic
consumption, and that the pressure on him to agree to talks with North Vietnam
would probably diminish once the election was over.
He was right on both counts. Johnson himself
later argued that Thieu became intransigent not as a result of Nixon's skullduggery,
but because of a politically motivated speech delivered by Humphrey on September
30, in which the vice president promised to halt the bombing of the North and
to "seek peace in every way possible." That speech, Johnson recalled
in his memoirs, made Thieu "extremely nervous and distrustful of the Johnson-Humphrey
administration and of the entire Democratic Party." It was no secret to
Thieu that he would be better off with Nixon in the White House.
The fact is that both sides in the 1968 campaign
were playing politics with the Vietnam War, just as both sides in the Vietnam
War were trying to influence American domestic politics to improve their own
positions on the battlefield. Bundy would have us believe that Johnson's ultimate
decision to order a halt in the bombing of North Vietnam and the start of a
peace offensive just days before the election had nothing to do with his passionate
desire to defeat Nixon and to elect Humphrey, that it was merely a response
to more positive signals coming from Hanoi in the waning weeks of the campaign.
But those positive signals were aimed precisely and exclusively at boosting
the fortunes of Humphrey, whom the North Vietnamese vastly preferred to Nixon,
just as Thieu preferred Nixon to Humphrey. Thus Johnson's decision to call a
halt to the bombing on October 31, 1968, and to launch a new round of peace
talks, was an integral feature of a broad pro-Humphrey strategy in both Hanoi
and Washington.
A great deal was at stake, after all, for Johnson,
for Humphrey, and for the liberal foreign policy establishment as a whole. For
Johnson and his advisers, salvaging their legacy was a primary concern, and
the fate of Richard Nixon figured prominently in their calculations. For a time,
Johnson toyed with the idea that a Nixon victory would be good for that legacy.
As Dallek writes, "Johnson saw the up side of a Nixon victory as a Vietnam
policy that would save him from the historical complaint that he was the only
President to have lost a war." Yet Johnson's advisers "encouraged
him to see Humphrey's election serving his historical reputation." A Nixon
presidency, they argued, "would signal public eagerness for a change from
Johnson and the Democrats. A vote for Nixon would express the belief that Nixon
and the Republicans could do better coping with or even possibly resolving current
difficulties over Vietnam" and other pressing matters. Johnson, who resented
Humphrey's constant pressure for a more moderate Vietnam policy that would help
his election bid, nevertheless "warmed to the idea of helping beat Nixon"
because "a Humphrey victory would refute talk about a repudiation of Johnson."
Are we supposed to believe that this calculation did not in any way affect the
nature and the timing of Johnson's decisions?
The "Chennault Affair" is only a
minor part of the story of Nixon's presidency, though Bundy gives it great prominence
in his narrative. His account raises a broader question about his entire critique
of Nixon and Kissinger, a question that Bundy would undoubtedly prefer not be
asked. For even a charitable reader may wonder whether Bundy and the others
who helped shape Johnson's military and domestic political strategy during the
Vietnam War really have the standing to make the kinds of charges and criticisms
that Bundy levels at Nixon and Kissinger.
This question seems especially pertinent when
one turns to the third of Bundy's broad charges, his criticism of the substance
of foreign policy during the Nixon presidency. For Bundy has a quibble with
almost every strand of Nixon's and Kissinger's foreign policy, even on those
matters where he feels compelled to give Nixon and Kissinger high marks, as
he does for their Middle East diplomacy. He also remarks upon every instance
in which a foreign policy success, such as the opening to China, did not deliver
quite as much as promised.
Bundy harshly criticizes all errors of judgment
and execution, even when those errors made no lasting impact on the course of
events. Thus he condemns Nixon's embrace of the Shah of Iran, insisting that
"the policies of the Nixon era bear a large share of the responsibility"
for the "disastrous" and "deplorable" events of the late
1970s. In 1980, however, in an article in Foreign Affairs defending
the Carter administration against the charge of having "lost" Iran,
Bundy himself noted, correctly, that after "the late 1960s" American
policy toward Iran had little if any effect on the decisions taken by the increasingly
independent Shah. Even more appalling is Bundy's mechanical rehashing of the
fight over whether the Nixon administration's bombing of Cambodia was responsible
for the genocide later carried out by Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge. Bundy's "reexamination"
of the question of Nixon's culpability for the Cambodian genocide consists,
by his own admission, almost entirely of restating, while slightly softening,
the allegations made by William Shawcross and Seymour M. Hersh, as if those
allegations were not the subject of serious scholarly controversy.
Bundy is disinclined to give Nixon and Kissinger
the benefit of the doubt on such matters, and he consistently chooses the harshest
interpretation of their successes and their failures. This is a pinched and
niggardly book. It is a certainty that no administration's foreign policy could
withstand this kind of scrutiny. Bundy, of all people, has reason to know that
mistakes and failures are more common in foreign policy than successes. And
even successes are never quite as complete and enduring as they are imagined
to be. Bundy even has the nerve to point out that Kissinger's peace agreement
in 1973 failed to save South Vietnam, as if he or anyone else in Johnson's administration
believed by 1968 that there was a viable policy for accomplishing that objective.
But it is in his attack on the broad outlines
of Nixon's and Kissinger's foreign policy strategy that Bundy most clearly reveals
the weakness of the liberal establishment's case against them. For it is not
merely that Bundy, with his own history, lacks the standing to make the criticism
that he makes. It is also that the criticism itself is wrong, and says more
about the accuser than the accused.
Put simply, in Bundy's reckoning Nixon and
Kissinger stand accused, above all, of prosecuting the cold war. For all their
talk of detente, they remained anti-Communists at heart. Nixon was "the
archetype, perhaps even the caricature, of the cold warrior." He and Kissinger
saw the United States as locked in an eternal competition with the Soviet Union,
and this shaped their policies not only toward Moscow but toward the rest of
the world, too. They "envisaged a continuing arms race and also intense
competition with the Soviet Union in the Third World." The world for them
was a giant superpower battleground, where "losses" had to be prevented
and "gains" had to be sought wherever possible.
To substantiate his charge that Nixon and Kissinger
actually persisted in believing that there was a cold war, Bundy turns to the
"dispassionate judgment" of Anatoly Dobrynin, who observes in his
autobiography that Nixon's and Kissinger's policy toward the Soviet Union was
unfortunately "a combination of deterrence and cooperation.... T hey were
not really thinking in terms of bringing about a major breakthrough in Soviet-American
relations, and of ending the Cold War and the arms race." This was their
chief failure, in Bundy's view, and it was the cause of many smaller failures,
including the embrace of the Shah, the attempt to undermine Salvador Allende
in Chile, and the coolness with which they viewed the Ostpolitik of Willy Brandt.
After his Vietnam experience, Bundy reeducated
himself to believe that emerging "regional" issues were more important
than superpower rivalry, and that the former needed to be handled outside the
context of the latter. Nixon and Kissinger failed to put themselves through
the same reeducation, and therein lies their dishonor. "Presiding over
a time when the United States should have been moving out of the mold of the
Cold War and into the era when local and regional crises were more important
than superpower rivalry, and economic factors more influential than geopolitics
at any level," Bundy charges, Nixon "never made the leaps that history
called for, on either front."
Even on those matters about which Bundy believes
Nixon and Kissinger acted correctly, such as their policy toward China, they
did so for the wrong reason--that is, they were driven by anti-Soviet motives.
The problem with Nixon's and Kissinger's "triangle" diplomacy, Bundy
argues, was that it was "unbalanced." "It was based not on equal
treatment of the Communist powers but on a pronounced favoring of China."
Nixon and Kissinger applied a "double standard" when dealing with
two powers. But that was the point, wasn't it? Kissinger always believed, as
he wrote to Nixon after departing from his first big meeting with the Chinese,
that "the beneficial impact on the USSR is perhaps the single biggest plus
that we get from the China initiative." Bundy seems to think that the opening
to China was worthwhile for its own sake, something that Kissinger himself did
not believe at the time. (Kissinger has since developed a Sinocentric view of
American foreign policy.)
For Bundy, Kissinger's "unbalanced"
attitude is only further proof that Nixon and Kissinger were not really wedded
to detente, that their accommodation of the Soviet Union was only a tactical
move aimed at shoring up flagging domestic support for continued American engagement
in the world in the midst of the Vietnam debacle. Bundy even accuses Nixon of
being an anti-Communist hawk; and for a figure such as Bundy, those words amount
to a kind of final condemnation.
Thus, although he applauds Nixon for consistently
fighting against efforts by Senator Henry Jackson to undermine detente and arms
control talks, Bundy suspects that "a large piece of him agreed with what
Jackson and his ally, James Schlesinger, were advocating." Would that this
were true.
Thanks to Nixon's ambivalence, combined with
his overall tendency to deceive the public and to seek short-term political
gain in all he undertook, detente "foundered in the end, for lack of political
support at home." Detente, Bundy argues, like the rest of Nixon's and Kissinger's
foreign policy, became caught in the "tangled web" of Nixon's deception.
It failed not because of Watergate, as Kissinger claims. It failed because it
was designed to fail.
This is almost conspiratorial. It will come
as news to many of Nixon's critics, moreover, that the real problem with detente
was Nixon's and Kissinger's lukewarmness toward it, their failure to pursue
it ardently and sincerely. Those unafflicted by Bundy's need for conscience-salving
would advance an entirely different criticism. For the problem with Nixon was
not that he was too hard on the Soviets, the problem was that he was too soft.
In trying to compensate for American weakness brought on by the failure in Vietnam,
Nixon and Kissinger succeeded only in making the United States even weaker.
Their real deception was not in pursuing detente half-heartedly, but in trying
to convince the American people that Brezhnev's Soviet Union was a partner in
international affairs rather than an adversary. The events of the mid- and late
1970s, in which the Soviets continued a massive conventional and nuclear arms
buildup and showed a newly adventurous spirit in the Third World, rather convincingly
disproved the main tenets of the detente strategy.
Or to put it differently, Richard Nixon was
not Ronald Reagan. Indeed, Nixon and Kissinger hewed far too closely to the
line advocated by the post-Vietnam liberal establishment. They withdrew from
Vietnam and permitted a Communist victory there; they pursued detente, though
it went largely unreciprocated by Moscow; they established an arms control process
with a most untrustworthy Soviet Union bent on strategic superiority; they eschewed
anti-Communist rhetoric and de-ideologized American foreign policy, a kind of
moral disarmament; they resisted efforts to link American trade with Soviet
human rights practices. The evidence reveals that, in his domestic policies
as well as in his foreign policies, Nixon constantly sought ways to ingratiate
himself with a liberal foreign policy establishment that refused to grant him
the legitimacy in American elite circles that he craved. And the result was
a decline in the fortunes of the United States that was not reversed until the
election of Reagan.
In the aftermath of the cold war, these criticisms
still seem fair. Even Kissinger acknowledges now that it was not detente but
"diplomatic confrontation, economic ostracism and ideological warfare ...
that accelerated the collapse of the Soviet empire." It was the intransigent
idealism of Reagan, not Kissingerian realpolitik, and much less the accommodationism
of the liberal establishment, that won the cold war. If one wanted to criticize
Nixon's and Kissinger's foreign policies, this would seem to be the strongest
angle of attack; but even those who have leveled this very different kind of
criticism tend to be more charitable in their assessment of Nixon's and Kissinger's
failures than Bundy. For they acknowledge what Bundy covers over: the horrible
predicament that Nixon and Kissinger inherited from their predecessors.
The truth is that just about every major aspect
of the foreign policy that Nixon and Kissinger tried to conduct from 1969 to
1974--from the opening to China to detente with the Soviet Union to the bombing
of Cambodia to the rigid anti-Communism of their policies in such Third World
venues as Chile and Indonesia--had its origins in their desperate efforts to
extricate themselves and the nation from the disastrous Vietnam policy that
they inherited from the liberals who preceded them, and to do so with the least
damage to America's standing in the world. Thanks to the Johnson administration's
failure in Vietnam, not just Soviet leaders but leaders of both friendly and
hostile governments around the world had reason to believe that the correlation
of forces was shifting against the United States. And thanks to the liberal
establishment's crack-up over Vietnam, the hard realities of American domestic
politics made it all but impossible to take the actions necessary to dispel
that impression.
To prosecute the cold war effectively, Nixon
and Kissinger had either to fight the liberal establishment, to evade it, or
to meet it half-way. They did too much of the second and the third, and too
little of the first, and this is to be regretted. Still, it would have taken
extraordinary courage to do what was necessary to avoid the disastrous policy
failures of the mid- and late 1970s.
The "tangled web" in which Nixon
and Kissinger were caught was not primarily of their own weaving. The establishment
of which William Bundy was a member must bear the lion's share of the blame,
something that it has spent more than twenty years refusing to do.