• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
DemocracyIran
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "George Perkovich"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "U.S. Nuclear Policy"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "NPP",
  "programs": [
    "Nuclear Policy"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "North America",
    "United States",
    "Middle East",
    "Iran",
    "United Kingdom"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Nuclear Policy"
  ]
}
REQUIRED IMAGE

REQUIRED IMAGE

In The Media

Five Scenarios for the Iranian Crisis

Link Copied
By George Perkovich
Published on Dec 26, 2006
Program mobile hero image

Program

Nuclear Policy

The Nuclear Policy Program aims to reduce the risk of nuclear war. Our experts diagnose acute risks stemming from technical and geopolitical developments, generate pragmatic solutions, and use our global network to advance risk-reduction policies. Our work covers deterrence, disarmament, arms control, nonproliferation, and nuclear energy.

Learn More

Source: IFRI

Since August 2005, Iran's campaign to enrich uranium and acquire other technologies and practical experience that would enable it to produce nuclear weapons has gained momentum. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and militant elements in Iran's ruling circle pointedly continue to defy international demands to cease uranium enrichment while the International Atomic Energy Agency's doubts about the peacefulness of Iran's past nuclear activities remain unresolved - according to the IAEA, Iran has not provided adequate cooperation to help resolve these doubts. This obstinate stance, paired with an aggressive posture toward Israel, has heightened Ahmadinejad's popularity in the wider Arab world, including Sunnis. In an unpredicted and quite ironic way, the Persian Ahmadinejad has become an avatar of Arab nationalism. The popularity of Iran's defiant position has, in turn, hardened Iran's resistance to international policy objectives to constrain the nuclear program.

To continue reading this article, please follow the PDF link above.

About the Author

George Perkovich

Japan Chair for a World Without Nuclear Weapons, Senior Fellow

George Perkovich is the Japan Chair for a World Without Nuclear Weapons and a senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Nuclear Policy Program. He works primarily on nuclear deterrence, nonproliferation, and disarmament issues, and is leading a study on nuclear signaling in the 21st century.

    Recent Work

  • Paper
    How to Assess Nuclear ‘Threats’ in the Twenty-First Century

      George Perkovich

  • Commentary
    “A House of Dynamite” Shows Why No Leader Should Have a Nuclear Trigger

      George Perkovich

George Perkovich
Japan Chair for a World Without Nuclear Weapons, Senior Fellow
George Perkovich
Nuclear PolicyNorth AmericaUnited StatesMiddle EastIranUnited Kingdom

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • Article
    From Hormuz to the Maghreb: The Geopolitical Reach of a Gulf Crisis

    Morocco and Algeria, each in its own way, are having to navigate the global economic fallout of the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran.

      Yasmine Zarhloule

  • Commentary
    Emissary
    Nolan’s "The Odyssey" Has a Colonialism Problem

    Despite Morocco’s hopes that its film industry would reap rewards, the blockbuster’s success will be tainted by controversy surrounding filming in occupied Western Sahara.

      • Sarah Yerkes

      Sarah Yerkes

  • Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (C) visits the Natanz uranium enrichment facilities April 8, 2008
    Paper
    Demystifying the Nuclear Threshold

    The nuclear weapons threshold is increasingly important for proliferation strategy and policy. Policymakers should better understand the implications of the threshold phenomenon in the current international security environment and plausible strategies to deal with the growing challenge that it presents.

      Ariel (Eli) Levite, Toby Dalton

  • Aerial view of Washington DC
    Paper
    Network and Structural Power: The Four Trend Lines Weakening U.S. Leverage

    Networks—from international payments platforms to key economic sectors—underlie many aspects of U.S. power. But they are suffering under an extractive approach to foreign policy.

      Daniel W. Drezner

  • Commentary
    Diwan
    Kurdish Rebel Groups Are Wary of Tehran’s Next Move

    Following its deal with the United States, Iran may act against Iraq-based dissidents.

      Wladimir van Wilgenburg

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.