Turkey's Moment of Inflection

{
  "authors": [
    "Henri J. Barkey"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Europe",
    "Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "Turkey’s Transformation"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "MEP",
  "programs": [
    "Middle East"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Türkiye",
    "Levant",
    "Europe"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform"
  ]
}

In The Media

Turkey's Moment of Inflection

The Turkish government’s handling of its Kurdish minority and the state of its civil-military relations will determine the longevity of the current improvement in Turkish political economy.

By Henri J. Barkey

Published on Jun 9, 2010

Source: Survival

Turkey's Moment of InflectionTurkey today imagines itself as a major contender in the global scene. It is the world’s seventeenth-largest economy and has used its geostrategic position and active diplomacy to assume membership in the UN Security Council for the first time in almost 50 years, to become a member of the G20 and to take on a visible role in international disputes. But it faces daunting obstacles at home and abroad, the two most important being the Kurdish problem and the state of civil-military relations. How the ruling Justice and Development (AKP) handles these two challenges will determine whether the current improvement in the Turkish political economy proves to be fleeting. Turkey is at an inflection moment. If it can resolve these problems it will find that many of the obstacles to European membership and continuing development will rapidly recede. Failure will mean a return to nationalist and autarchic policies as well as continual violence and instability.

The usual third alternative, muddling through, no longer appears to be an option. This has to do with the drivers of the current change. In addition to external forces such as the EU and globalization, two noteworthy factors are the AKP leadership and an emerging civil society which had, for far too long, been dormant and cowed by the state’s hegemonic power. The AKP, which advocates economic liberalism and engendered the current political opening, has two handicaps that militate against an orderly liberal progression. The first is its own tendency towards authoritarianism, as indicated by the domination of its own party politics by a single leader. The second is that its political instincts are not liberal in the classic sense, but rather imbued first and foremost by an apprehension for Muslim sensibilities and concerns. Thus while the AKP may be economically liberal, politically and culturally it has yet to transform itself. The burgeoning civil society, moreover, does not automatically translate into increased tolerance: Turkish culture still suffers from xenophobia and mistrust of both minorities and the outside world. This is attributable, in part, to the weakness of the institutions such as media and the education system.

About the Author

Henri J. Barkey

Former Visiting Scholar, Middle East Program

Barkey served as a member of the U.S. State Department Policy Planning Staff, working primarily on issues related to the Middle East, the Eastern Mediterranean, and intelligence from 1998 to 2000.

Recent Work

Article
Winners and Losers in Turkey’s Election
- Henri J. Barkey
Article
The Road to Turkey’s June Elections: Crises, Strategies, and Outcomes
- Henri J. Barkey

Political Reform Türkiye Levant Europe

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Commentary
Strategic Europe
Russia’s Imperial Retreat Is Europe’s Strategic Opportunity
The war in Ukraine is costing Russia its leverage overseas. Across the South Caucasus and Middle East, this presents an opportunity for Europe to pick up the pieces and claim its own sphere of influence.
William Dixon, Maksym Beznosiuk
Commentary
Is the Radical-Right Threat Existential or Overstated?
Amid increased polarization and the influence of disinformation, radical-right parties are once again gaining traction across Europe. With landmark elections on the horizon in several countries, are the EU’s geostrategic vision and fundamental values under existential threat?
Catherine Fieschi, Cas Mudde
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
Tokayev’s New Constitution Is a Bet on Stability—At Freedom’s Expense
Kazakhstan’s new constitution is an embodiment of the ruling elite’s fears and a self-serving attempt to preserve the status quo while they still can.
Serik Beysembaev
Paper
Belligerent and Beleaguered: Russia After the War with Ukraine
No matter how its war against Ukraine ends, Russia will emerge less secure, more aggrieved, and posing a greater threat to Europe than it did when it started this war.
Eugene Rumer
Commentary
Strategic Europe
Europe and the Arab Gulf Must Come Together
The war in Iran proves the United States is now a destabilizing actor for Europe and the Arab Gulf. From protect their economies and energy supplies to safeguarding their territorial integrity, both regions have much to gain from forming a new kind of partnership together.
Rym Momtaz

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Commentary

Strategic Europe

Russia’s Imperial Retreat Is Europe’s Strategic Opportunity

The war in Ukraine is costing Russia its leverage overseas. Across the South Caucasus and Middle East, this presents an opportunity for Europe to pick up the pieces and claim its own sphere of influence.

William Dixon, Maksym Beznosiuk

Commentary

Is the Radical-Right Threat Existential or Overstated?

Amid increased polarization and the influence of disinformation, radical-right parties are once again gaining traction across Europe. With landmark elections on the horizon in several countries, are the EU’s geostrategic vision and fundamental values under existential threat?

Catherine Fieschi, Cas Mudde

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

Tokayev’s New Constitution Is a Bet on Stability—At Freedom’s Expense

Kazakhstan’s new constitution is an embodiment of the ruling elite’s fears and a self-serving attempt to preserve the status quo while they still can.

Serik Beysembaev

Paper

Belligerent and Beleaguered: Russia After the War with Ukraine

No matter how its war against Ukraine ends, Russia will emerge less secure, more aggrieved, and posing a greater threat to Europe than it did when it started this war.

Eugene Rumer

Commentary

Strategic Europe

Europe and the Arab Gulf Must Come Together

The war in Iran proves the United States is now a destabilizing actor for Europe and the Arab Gulf. From protect their economies and energy supplies to safeguarding their territorial integrity, both regions have much to gain from forming a new kind of partnership together.

Rym Momtaz