Matthew Rojansky
{
"authors": [
"Matthew Rojansky"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Europe"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "russia",
"programs": [
"Russia and Eurasia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Caucasus",
"Russia"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform"
]
}Source: Getty
Putin Plays the Action Man But Support May Begin to Wane
In spite of widespread criticism of Moscow’s handling of the crisis, the forest fires burning across Russia have provided Prime Minister Putin with another chance to boost his personal popularity by presenting himself as a strong, tough leader.
Source: The Independent

But Putin is best known to Russians as a strong leader, a "man on horseback" in the tradition of Stalin and Peter the Great. Putin's presidency began with the second Chechen war, a campaign to eradicate Islamist separatists and terrorists accused of bombings in Moscow and other cities. Putin's popularity crested with his image as the kind of strong leader who could play tough – even dirty – when the circumstances merit.
Now, as Prime Minister, he is rolling up his sleeves to take charge and is once again the man on horseback. Although fire-fighting efforts have been woefully inadequate, Putin's personal popularity will swell, at least in the short term.
For Medvedev, the short-term prospects are less bright. He has been a very different kind of President. With Putin positioned protectively close, he plays the role of diplomat-in-chief and apostle of Russia's "modernisation" drive, which entails forging closer ties with the West and fighting corruption. But to average Russians, the suave young President appears no match for the challenge of this firestorm.
In the longer term, however, it may be Medvedev that benefits more. Citizens are asking how Putin's power structure could have allowed so much local corruption and ill-preparedness, and complaining that even Soviet-era leaders were more effective.
With presidential elections still two years off, there is plenty of time for new crises to remind Russians why Putin's toughness might still be needed. Medvedev himself has said he will step aside if his mentor decides to run. For now, just like the smoke-blotted Moscow skyline, there is little daylight visible in Russia's "tandem" leadership.
About the Author
Former Deputy Director, Russia and Eurasia Program
Rojansky, formerly executive director of the Partnership for a Secure America, is an expert on U.S. and Russian national security and nuclear-weapon policies.
- An Opportunity for Ambition: Ukraine’s OSCE ChairmanshipPaper
- Presiding Over the OSCE: Challenges and OpportunitiesIn The Media
Matthew Rojansky
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- As Trump Threatens to Quit NATO, the Baltic States Are Playing for TimeCommentary
Governments in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania want to ensure that a U.S. military withdrawal would not leave them dangerously exposed to a Russian attack.
Sergejs Potapkins
- Cities Have a Crucial Role to Play in Advancing Climate Mobility PrioritiesCommentary
Ensuring that cities’ perspectives shape international discussions at this year’s forums is not just equitable; it is likely to produce better outcomes.
Liliana Gamboa, Marissa Jordan
- Could the Rise of the New People Party Reshape Russia’s Managed Political System?Commentary
Anger over online restrictions has led to a surge in support for the New People party, which has replaced the Communists as Russia’s second most popular political party.
Andrey Pertsev
- In Russia, the Public Mood Is SouringCommentary
The Russian regime is now visibly motivated by fear.
Alexander Baunov
- Azerbaijan Looks to Tap Ukraine’s Military Expertise With Raft of New DealsCommentary
Baku’s backing for Ukraine is less about confronting Russia than about quietly broadening the mix of partners it relies on.
Zaur Shiriyev