Source: Politico
Hosni Mubarak Staying Put - What Now?President Hosni Mubarak’s defiant announcement to crowds that he will stay in power until the end of his term in September has been met with anger by the growing ranks of protesters. As soon as the crowds understood they were not listening to the expected resignation speech, a chorus of “go, go, go” replaced the festive atmosphere and singing of the national anthem of the previous hours. Tomorrow’s demonstrations promise to be huge.
The speech suggests that Mubarak is in denial about the seriousness of the situation Egypt is facing and the extent of popular anger. His defiance has decreased the possibility that Egypt will experience an orderly transition. Instead, it appears increasingly likely that the military will intervene, because the government is completely discredited at this point and there is no other entity in the country that can start a credible transition process. Unfortunately, military intervention is not a promising beginning for what Egyptians hope will be a democratic transition.
The Obama administration cannot influence the course of events in Egypt. Future developments depend on what steps the military and the protesters take, not on what Washington says. But the Obama administration needs to salvage what little credibility it still has in the Arab world. Washington has no control over what Egypt’s government, its military, and its people will do, but it has control over its own decisions: the best it can do is to announce that it is suspending all aid to Egypt until the situation is clarified and that it stands ready to move back in quickly when Egyptians have found a way forward.