Source: Politico
Mubarak Won't Run Again — What's the Effect?Protests in Egypt were sparked by a lethal combination of difficult economic and social conditions coupled with political repression, lack of political freedoms, and corruption. While Egyptians have long faced economic hardship, high unemployment rates, and a growing disparity between rich and poor, there is a strong sense now that Mubarak’s regime increased economic hardship through its corruption and economic reforms benefiting the business community but not ordinary Egyptians.
During the last decade, protest against economic hardship and political repression increased steadily in Egypt, but it took the form of hundreds of small separate incidents--demonstrations, strikes not sanctioned by unions, labor sit-ins, and anti-government blogging.The upheaval in Tunisia helped bring protesters together by demonstrating that determined crowds can bring down a president. Ultimately, however, other unpredictable incidents could have served as catalysts.
Other Arab regimes are right to worry about the possibility of an uprising in their own countries. The same combination of economic hardship and political corruption and repression exist in all Arab countries outside the Gulf, which have also seen an increase in incidents of protests over the past decade. As Tunisia and Egypt demonstrate, chronic dissatisfaction that led in the past to small separate outbursts can suddenly lead to the rise of massive, sustained protest. Even the Gulf monarchies, whose citizens are protected against extreme economic hardship by oil revenue, cannot be certain that they are immune from a sudden outburst of popular anger.
Publics in many Arab countries will undoubtedly be inspired by events in Tunisia and Egypt and take to the streets to demand their rights and force change. Whether they will succeed, however, will depend not on Tunisia’s or Egypt’s example, but on the ability of protesters to coordinate their efforts and link socioeconomic with political demands, and on the governments’ response, plus the imponderable catalyst.