• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
DemocracyIran
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Thomas de Waal"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Europe"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
  "programAffiliation": "russia",
  "programs": [
    "Russia and Eurasia"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Caucasus",
    "Azerbaijan",
    "Armenia"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Security"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

In The Media
Carnegie Europe

Smoldering Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Could Re-Erupt

The unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has the potential to flare up again as tensions mount on their interstate border.

Link Copied
By Thomas de Waal
Published on Jun 5, 2012
Program mobile hero image

Program

Russia and Eurasia

The Russia and Eurasia Program continues Carnegie’s long tradition of independent research on major political, societal, and security trends in and U.S. policy toward a region that has been upended by Russia’s war against Ukraine.  Leaders regularly turn to our work for clear-eyed, relevant analyses on the region to inform their policy decisions.

Learn More

Source: BBC World News

In an interview with BBC World News, Carnegie’s Thomas de Waal described the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as a “smoldering conflict which may one day re-erupt.” Although a ceasefire was declared in 1994, the latest clashes on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan add to the worry that “one day the fuses will blow” and war will once again break out in what is a “very sensitive region,” he noted.

While the three mediators in the peace process—Russia, the United States, and France—are certainly “heavyweight great powers,” they cannot facilitate a settlement as long as both sides are determined to emerge victorious. As a result, “Russia, the United States, and Europe are scratching their heads a bit at the moment as to how to stabilize the situation,” de Waal concluded. 

About the Author

Thomas de Waal

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe

Thomas de Waal is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.

    Recent Work

  • Article
    Managing Montreux: Turkey and the Russia-Ukraine War in the Black Sea

      Thomas de Waal

  • Commentary
    There Is No Shortcut for Europe in Armenia

      Thomas de Waal

Thomas de Waal
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Thomas de Waal
SecurityCaucasusAzerbaijanArmenia

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    As It Turns 25, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Reflects the New World Order

    With the growth in points of friction between the great powers, organizations like the SCO will continue to play a role in the strategic adaptation of the smaller powers caught between them.

      Temur Umarov

  • People dancing in the foreground, with a group of people in suites watching and an Air China plane in the background
    Commentary
    Emissary
    The Two Key Takeaways From Xi’s Egypt Visit

    Amid celebrations of bilateral ties was a deeper focus on stability in the Middle East.

      Amr Hamzawy

  • UAV Forpost of russian air force takes off at Kubinka air force base
    Article
    In Russia’s Long Drone Shadow

    Moscow is testing Europe’s defenses with drone incursions and could decide to use drones against the continent on a much larger scale once the war in Ukraine pauses. European countries will need Kyiv to help them prepare for such a possibility.

      • Pavlo Zvenyhorodskyi

      Pavlo Zvenyhorodskyi

  • Pituffik base greenland US Denmark
    Article
    Europe’s Overseas Countries and Territories as Geopolitical Assets

    European states control several Overseas Countries and Territories around the world that carry strategic, economic, and environmental weight. As great powers challenge the rules-based order, defending them is a geopolitical imperative for Europe.

      Marc Pierini

  • military personnel on a boat
    Commentary
    Emissary
    The Achilles’ Heel of the Shield of the Americas

    By focusing only on hard security, the Shield ignores the conditions that fuel cartel power.

      • Alejandro Rodriguez
      • Kayly Ober

      Alejandro Martin Rodriguez, Kayly Ober

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.