The 18th Party Congress and Foreign Policy: The Dog that Did Not Bark?

{
  "authors": [
    "Michael D. Swaine"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie China"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "China’s Foreign Relations"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "asia",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "AP",
  "programs": [
    "Asia"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "East Asia",
    "China"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform"
  ]
}

In The Media

The 18th Party Congress and Foreign Policy: The Dog that Did Not Bark?

The Chinese Party Congress is mainly about domestic political power and domestic policies, but it can also serve as an important indicator of future policy direction and power structure, including within the foreign policy arena.

By Michael D. Swaine

Published on Jan 14, 2013

Source: China Leadership Monitor

Foreign policy issues have never played a major role in party congresses, at least during the reform era, for understandable reasons. A party congress is mainly about domestic political power and domestic policies, and even then is primarily an exercise in tedious sloganeering, pumping up the party faithful, and presenting the new leadership lineup. Nonetheless, congresses can be important as indicators of future policy direction and power structure, including within the foreign policy arena. Future policy indicators are usually contained within the congress work report delivered by the current Chinese Communist Party (CCP) general secretary, while power structure indicators are contained in the official membership roster of the new CCP Central Committee, Politburo, and Politburo Standing Committee.

This essay examines the foreign policy aspects of both documents, as presented at the 18th Party Congress. The bulk of the analysis is devoted to the party work report delivered by Hu Jintao, which is compared with past work reports going back to the 14th Party Congress of 1992. The CCP leadership roster is at best only an indirect indicator of the future PRC foreign policy elite, since the government leadership lineup will be selected the following spring, during the National People’s Congress. However, the foreign policy team will almost certainly be selected from the new party leadership. Hence, an examination of the congress can provide a few hints of what is to come.

This is a slightly modified version of the piece originally published in the China Leadership Monitor.

About the Author

Michael D. Swaine

Former Senior Fellow, Asia Program

Swaine was a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and one of the most prominent American analysts in Chinese security studies.

Recent Work

Other
What Kind of Global Order Should Washington and Beijing Strive For?
- Michael D. Swaine
Commentary
A Smarter U.S. Strategy for China in Four Steps
- Michael D. Swaine

Political Reform East Asia China

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Commentary
China Financial Markets
The Plaza Accord and Its Relevance for China
The Plaza Accord was not an externally imposed punishment of Japan but part of a broader restructuring that Japanese economists and policymakers themselves recognized was necessary. Its effects were undermined, however, when Tokyo responded to the resulting slowdown with policies that exacerbated investment, credit expansion, and the very imbalances the adjustment was intended to resolve.
Michael Pettis
Commentary
Strategic Europe
The Uncomfortable Truth About EU Enlargement
Before the next wave of EU enlargement takes place, the union needs to grapple with thorny questions of how power is distributed among its members.
Emil Sondaj Hansen, Ditte Brasso Sørensen
Commentary
Emissary
What to Watch When Trump and Xi Meet in Washington
The real test may come after the leaders leave the room.
+1
Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Oriana Skylar Mastro, Yukon Huang, …
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
Will the Far Right Change Europe’s Russia Policy?
The European far right might fail to steer EU policy in the direction Russia wants, but they will create enough chaos inside Europe to benefit the Kremlin.
Dimitar Bechev
Paper
Untangling the Nuclear Knot: A Constructive Agenda for Managing China’s Nuclear Relations with the United States and Its Allies
The nuclear relationship between China and the United States is increasingly shaped by widening perception gaps rather than deliberate strategic design.
Tong Zhao

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Commentary

China Financial Markets

The Plaza Accord and Its Relevance for China

The Plaza Accord was not an externally imposed punishment of Japan but part of a broader restructuring that Japanese economists and policymakers themselves recognized was necessary. Its effects were undermined, however, when Tokyo responded to the resulting slowdown with policies that exacerbated investment, credit expansion, and the very imbalances the adjustment was intended to resolve.

Michael Pettis

Ukraine Poland Zelensky Tusk Enlargement EU

Commentary

Strategic Europe

The Uncomfortable Truth About EU Enlargement

Before the next wave of EU enlargement takes place, the union needs to grapple with thorny questions of how power is distributed among its members.

Emil Sondaj Hansen, Ditte Brasso Sørensen

Commentary

Emissary

What to Watch When Trump and Xi Meet in Washington

The real test may come after the leaders leave the room.

- +1
Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Oriana Skylar Mastro, Yukon Huang, …

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

Will the Far Right Change Europe’s Russia Policy?

The European far right might fail to steer EU policy in the direction Russia wants, but they will create enough chaos inside Europe to benefit the Kremlin.

Dimitar Bechev

The nuclear missile formation passes through Tian'anmen Square during a military parade on September 3, 2025 in Beijing, China.

Paper

Untangling the Nuclear Knot: A Constructive Agenda for Managing China’s Nuclear Relations with the United States and Its Allies

The nuclear relationship between China and the United States is increasingly shaped by widening perception gaps rather than deliberate strategic design.

Tong Zhao