A couple of more thoughts on Russia and Ukraine. Recently, Andrew Weiss in the Eurasia Outlook and Anders Aslund in the Moscow Times (“How Putin Lost Ukraine,” August 20, 2013) presented their views on the topic. Andrew Weiss suggested a new angle by asking the question, “Who in the Russian and Ukrainian oligarchic structures stands to lose the most after the EU Eastern Partnership summit in November?” I do not know who among tycoons will lose “the most.” There definitely can be many losers on both sides—everyone producing freight cars, locomotives, pipes, electrical equipment, and a host of other goods. Thus Pinchuk with his pipes stands to lose a lot, and so does Poroshenko with his candy and Akhmetov with his metal. Yet it is worth noting the difference between the Russian and Ukrainian tycoons. Among Russians only one so far has tried to think about rules of the game. You know the name, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, and you know where he is now, being punished for thinking the way he thought. The Ukrainian oligarchs have been lobbying at the Davos World Economic Forum and in European capitals for years, thus cultivating both political and economic space for themselves in Europe. By the way, Pinchuk was actually the first to build personal and state connections with Europe. Not with Russia. His annual Ukrainian dinners at Davos have the goal to connect Ukraine with Europe, not to tie it with Russia. Thus, for the Ukrainian big business being embraced by Russia would be the worst nightmare. Ukrainians, oligarchs included, do not want to let Russians into their country, especially when it comes to control over property. And this is what would be accomplished by gradually drawing Ukraine into the Customs Union and subsequently into the Eurasian Union.
And have you heard that Ukrainians have decided to show some spine in return, which they have never done before? The Zaporozhye metallurgical plant has halted the 28,000-ton shipment to its Russian partners. Ukrainian Beer and food manufacturers have also put a hold on their exports to Russia.
Thus, Kremlin is most likely mistaken in its belief that by squeezing the Ukrainian oligarchs, it will force them to squeeze Yanukovich and make him discard the plans for the Association Agreement with the EU.
I guess Anders Aslund is right when he says that Putin’s policy toward Ukraine “is as aggressive as it is unsuccessful.” Kremlin so far has been the most powerful instrument that has helped Ukraine to build its independent state and think about the European vector. Indeed, the Kremlin’s policy is the best example of how the Law of Unintended consequences works.
When Moscow started the “trade war” with Ukraine, I called my friend Larisa Ivshina, the editor-in-chief of Day, a Ukrainian independent newspaper, with a question about how Ukrainians react to all of this. “It will make those who still harbored some illusions vis-à-vis Russia part with them,” Larisa said. “It is a continuation of the same logic Kremlin had previously used both toward Ukraine and Georgia… But Russia can’t change our trajectory!” She also added, “Why the Kremlin always relies on people who have no influence in Ukraine?” I thought about this comment when I watched Putin and Medvedev sitting in the company of Viktor Medvedchuk (former head of Kuchma administration), who is the key supporter of Ukrainian membership in the Customs Union, at the Sochi martial arts event on August 17. If Putin has made his bet on Medvedchuk, then we can be sure: Ukrainians will move in the opposite direction.
Indeed, the Kremlin’s current actions toward Ukraine indicate that the Kremlin is ready for a rough policy of coercion and intimidation in the post-Soviet space. Moreover, the Kremlin is ready to force Ukraine to either agree or pay a high price for resisting.
Kremlin’s actions also demonstrate the readiness of the Russian regime for sadomasochism. It does not only harass others, it ignores the Russian interests. As the result of the “trade war” numerous Russian consumers have suffered, not being able to receive pipes, freight cars, and jet engines in a timely fashion. Moscow construction sites could have closed any minute due to the shortages of Ukrainian crushed stone.
Yes, I agree, Europe is tired of problems around Ukraine. Indeed, it is tired of cajoling Yanukovich into behaving in a civilized way. Europe has been silently looking the other way while Ukraine has been subjected to coercion to make it cohabitate with Russia. The Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt was the only one to react, and even this reaction came from his Twitter account. “Is Russia starting a silent trade war against Ukraine to block its relations with the EU? Would be very serious,” he tweeted. Only much later Elmar Brok, head of the European Parliament Committee on International Relations and the European deputy Yacek Cariush-Volski made a statement calling upon the EU to take “urgent actions” in defense of Ukraine. So far, the European leaders have been making an impression that nothing happened.
But in the final analysis, a number of factors, including the end of the reset policy that was finally scrapped by Obama, and the pressure of the public opinion may induce Europeans—not all of them, but particularly the German Chancellor Angela Merkel—to say, “We cannot give Ukraine away to Putin!”
Regarding Yanukovich, he has less room for maneuvering than he could have expected. He has to understand that he cannot continue with Kuchma’s approach of swinging back and forth between Russia and Europe. He will be forced to make a choice. But choosing Europe would mean Ukraine’s turn to the political order that apparently does not appeal to Yanukovich all that much. However, being Putin’s lap dog may be even less to his liking.
Yanukovich has answered with a decision to commemorate the anniversary of the Holodomor in Ukraine. This has been an act of obstinacy on his part. He knows full well how Moscow feels about this dramatic period of Ukrainian history. But that is not making a choice. Yanukovich is still trying to put it off, but by doing so, he only makes his situation worse.
Perhaps, one more trade war is required to force Yanukovich to turn to Europe. But does the Ukrainian elite need another rape to understand what awaits it in the Eurasian Union should it finally opt for the marriage with Moscow?