Commentary
Dmitri Trenin
{
"authors": [
"Dmitri Trenin"
],
"type": "commentary",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Russia",
"Eastern Europe",
"Western Europe",
"Moldova"
],
"topics": [
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
Commentary
Transnistria: A Gathering Storm
Moldova’s government wants association with the EU, but is committed to the “reunification of Moldova” by means of “re-integration” of Transnistria. The reality, however, is that Moldova can be made whole only if it decided to turn east rather than west.
Published on Apr 7, 2014
Even as Arsen Avakov, Ukraine's interior minister, vows to restore order in the country's east where thousands of protestors wave Russian flags and storm government buildings, a different kind of emergency is rising on Ukraine's south-western border. Transnistria, Moldova's breakaway region, has decided not to attend a meeting of the "5+2" group which has been seeking a diplomatic solution to the 24-year-old conflict along the Dniester. With reference to Crimea, Transnistrian authorities are pressing harder than ever to join the Russian Federation.
The hour of truth in Moldova is fast approaching. Its pro-European coalition government led by Iurie Leanca wants association with the EU, but, like all its predecessors, is committed to the "reunification of Moldova" by means of "re-integration" of Transnistria. The reality, however, is that Moldova can be made whole only if it decided to turn east rather than west. Indeed, Moscow has offered Chisinau a path to joining the Customs Union, and hopes that the Communist-led opposition to the Leanca government might win the next election and take up the Russian offer.
The European Union seeks to strengthen the Chisinau government's hand. Starting this month, Moldovans will no longer need visas to travel to the Schengen countries. A significant part of Moldova's population work abroad—as far away as Italy and Portugal—for the lack of opportunity at home. When they think of the EU, they think of its more affluent member states. Yet the reality is that Moldova's European future may be more like Romania's present. To some, it is not inspiring. The Gagauz, a Turkic ethnic group enjoying an autonomy is its tiny region in the country's south, are looking to Moscow. So are many ethnic Bulgarians, which populate a neighboring county.
Given this, EU-minded Chisinau would be much better off politically without pro-Russian Transnistria, which, it should be recalled, has never formed part of an independent Moldovan state. Transnistrians feel a strong attachment to Russia; they voted in the past to join the Russian Federation; and they have recently adopted Russian legislation. The problem is that that land-locked sliver of land along the Dniester River has only two neighbors, Moldova and Ukraine. In better times, Moscow could rely on Kiev keeping Transnistria's eastern border open, and allowing the port of Odessa to function as the unrecognized state's main outlet to the wider world. Now, this arrangement is becoming ever more tenuous.
When President Vladimir Putin spoke with President Barack Obama and Chancellor Angela Merkel a week ago, he brought up the issue of Transnistria's "blockade". Should it come to that, the situation in the region would rise to a dangerous pitch.
About the Author
Dmitri Trenin
Former Director, Carnegie Moscow Center
Trenin was director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from 2008 to early 2022.
- Mapping Russia’s New Approach to the Post-Soviet Space
- What a Week of Talks Between Russia and the West RevealedCommentary
Dmitri Trenin
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Southeast Asia’s Agency Amid the New Oil CrisisCommentary
There is no better time for the countries of Southeast Asia to reconsider their energy security than during this latest crisis.
Gita Wirjawan
- Fuel Crisis Forces Politically Perilous Trade-Offs in IndonesiaCommentary
As conflict in the Middle East drives up fuel costs across Asia, Indonesia faces difficult policy trade-offs over subsidies, inflation, and fiscal credibility. President Prabowo’s personalized governance style may make these hard choices even harder to navigate.
Sana Jaffrey
- Europe Doesn’t Like War—for Good ReasonsCommentary
The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are existential threats to Europe as a peace project. Leaders and citizens alike must reaffirm their solidarity to face up to today’s multifaceted challenges.
Marc Pierini
- In Its Iran War Debate, Washington Has Lost the Plot in AsiaCommentary
The United States ignores the region’s lived experience—and the tough political and social trade-offs the war has produced—at its peril.
Evan A. Feigenbaum
- Blocking of Telegram App Sparks Rare Public Rift Among Russia’s ElitesCommentary
The prospect of a total block on Russia’s most popular messaging app has sparked disagreement between the regime’s political managers and its security agencies.
Andrey Pertsev
