Source: American Interest

Let’s begin with two broad brushstrokes: First, imagine, if you will, a country whose political establishment and society can’t stop talking about a neighboring country. This country obsesses over teaching its neighbor how to live and angrily punishes it for its disobedience. Moreover, this country and its media are fixated on this neighbor, even to the exclusion of domestic developments. What could we say about such a country? That it has lost its way. That it doesn’t have a feel for its own sense of identity. I’m speaking, of course, about Russia, whose television personalities, politicians, and pundits can’t stop talking about Ukraine and show not the slightest interest in anything happening in Russia itself. Everyone is looking at Ukraine, and Ukraine is the key trigger of Russian emotions, anger, frustration, and longing to demonstrate might and resolve.

Second, regarding the national “round tables” in Ukraine that Kiev is trying to host under OSCE auspices in order to resolve its political crisis: Kiev is right not to want to legitimize the separatists by dealing with them. However, the Western governments have been pretty evasive on the issue of who should talk to whom. If the West supports the “federalization” concept endorsed by the separatists, then it would mean the end of Ukraine in its current geographical format.

Putin looks like he will continue to ride the tide he has set into motion for the time being. But amidst his tactical successes we can already see the signs of a looming strategic defeat: The very idea of prolonging one’s rule by attempting to hold one’s country and the world in the past, after all, is in itself a kind of defeat.

So much for the broad brushstrokes. Now let’s add a few finer brushstrokes, step back, and give our landscape a chance to come into view. ...

Read the full text of this article in the American Interest.