Plus Ça Change? Prospects of a Nuclear Deterrence Multipolarity in Southern Asia

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In The Media

Plus Ça Change? Prospects of a Nuclear Deterrence Multipolarity in Southern Asia

China, India, and Pakistan could build predictability in the region and mitigate potential sources of conflict through new measures to manage common-pool resource competition, dangerous behaviors in space, and a range of crises and emergencies.

By Toby Dalton

Published on Dec 16, 2022

Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament

About the Author

Toby Dalton

Senior Fellow and Co-director, Nuclear Policy Program

Toby Dalton is a senior fellow and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment. An expert on nonproliferation and nuclear energy, his work addresses regional security challenges and the evolution of the global nuclear order.

Recent Work

Paper
Demystifying the Nuclear Threshold
- Ariel (Eli) Levite, Toby Dalton
Article
Promoting Responsible Nuclear Energy Conduct: An Agenda for International Cooperation
- Ariel (Eli) Levite, Toby Dalton

Nuclear Policy South Asia India Pakistan East Asia China

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Paper
Demystifying the Nuclear Threshold
The nuclear weapons threshold is increasingly important for proliferation strategy and policy. Policymakers should better understand the implications of the threshold phenomenon in the current international security environment and plausible strategies to deal with the growing challenge that it presents.
Ariel (Eli) Levite, Toby Dalton
Paper
Nuclear Weapons and the Future of American Power
It seems likely that, no matter what, the power of the U.S. nuclear arsenal will face erosion, not least in the credibility of its commitments to defend allies and the political durability of those alliances.
James M. Acton, Ankit Panda
Paper
Threading the Needle: India’s Path Forward with China
After the chill in ties between 2020 and 2024 that brought India–China relations to their lowest point in several decades, the two countries have engaged each other afresh. This paper argues that there are predominantly four imperatives guiding India’s approach to China, and they exist in an order of priority.
Saheb Singh Chadha
Article
In the Middle East and North Africa, America and China Converge More Than They Diverge
Middle powers in the region will keep hedging between Washington and Beijing. It’s in the great powers’ interests to play along.
Amr Hamzawy, Kathryn Selfe
Commentary
President Lee Jae Myung: A Year in Power
President Lee marked his first year in office after one of the most tumultuous periods in South Korean politics. Though Lee has enjoyed a high approval rating, a large majority in the National Assembly, and foreign policy victories, Lee and his party’s political fortunes depend on generating economic growth, learning the right lessons from the recent local elections, and managing contentious factional strife within his political base.
Chung Min Lee

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (C) visits the Natanz uranium enrichment facilities April 8, 2008

Paper

Demystifying the Nuclear Threshold

The nuclear weapons threshold is increasingly important for proliferation strategy and policy. Policymakers should better understand the implications of the threshold phenomenon in the current international security environment and plausible strategies to deal with the growing challenge that it presents.

Ariel (Eli) Levite, Toby Dalton

1990s USS Pennsylvania United States Navy Nuclear Powered Ohio-Class Ballistic Missile Submarine Cruising On Ocean Surface

Paper

Nuclear Weapons and the Future of American Power

It seems likely that, no matter what, the power of the U.S. nuclear arsenal will face erosion, not least in the credibility of its commitments to defend allies and the political durability of those alliances.

James M. Acton, Ankit Panda

Paper

Threading the Needle: India’s Path Forward with China

After the chill in ties between 2020 and 2024 that brought India–China relations to their lowest point in several decades, the two countries have engaged each other afresh. This paper argues that there are predominantly four imperatives guiding India’s approach to China, and they exist in an order of priority.

Saheb Singh Chadha

Photo of commercial ship anchored near the Strait of Hormuz.

Article

In the Middle East and North Africa, America and China Converge More Than They Diverge

Middle powers in the region will keep hedging between Washington and Beijing. It’s in the great powers’ interests to play along.

Amr Hamzawy, Kathryn Selfe

Commentary

President Lee Jae Myung: A Year in Power

President Lee marked his first year in office after one of the most tumultuous periods in South Korean politics. Though Lee has enjoyed a high approval rating, a large majority in the National Assembly, and foreign policy victories, Lee and his party’s political fortunes depend on generating economic growth, learning the right lessons from the recent local elections, and managing contentious factional strife within his political base.

Chung Min Lee