Edition

Proliferation News 3/4/25

IN THIS ISSUE: The Key Questions Senators Should Ask Trump’s Nuclear Policy Nominees, Putin Agrees to Help Trump Broker Nuclear Talks With Iran, France's Macron is ready to discuss nuclear deterrence for Europe, Nuclear energy watchdog chief raises ‘serious’ safety concerns over sites in Ukraine and Iran, Japan won’t join UN meeting on nuclear weapons ban, citing support for US deterrence, The end of MAD? Technological innovation and the future of nuclear retaliatory capabilities

Published on March 4, 2025

Toby Dalton and Celia McDowall | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

In the coming weeks, several individuals nominated for senior positions at the State and Defense Departments and National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) will face Senate confirmation hearings... The confirmation process offers an important opportunity for members of Congress to press these individuals on the potential implications of the Trump administration’s alliance policies for U.S. national security, especially with regard to threats of nuclear war and the spread of nuclear weapons.

Bloomberg News

Russia agreed to assist US President Donald Trump’s administration in communicating with Iran on issues including the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program and its support for regional anti-US proxies, according to people familiar with the situation. Trump relayed that interest directly to President Vladimir Putin in a phone call in February and top officials from his administration discussed the matter with their Russian counterparts at talks in Saudi Arabia days later, people said, declining to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue.

Reuters

French President Emmanuel Macron has said he is ready to start discussions on nuclear deterrence for Europe, hinting France could help to protect other EU countries, given the security threats posed by Russia. European leaders will meet in London on Sunday to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine and they will attend a European Union summit on Thursday.

UN News

In his latest address to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors on Monday, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi warned of the escalating nuclear safety risks in Ukraine as the conflict grinds on. “The electrical grid’s ability to provide a reliable off-site power supply to Ukrainian NPPs was reduced by damage sustained following military attacks in November and December 2024,” Mr. Grossi stated, underscoring the ongoing strain on national energy infrastructure, in the face of Russia’s ongoing invasion… Mr. Grossi also reported fresh concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme, especially its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent.

Mari Yamaguchi | AP News

Japan will not attend a U.N. conference on the treaty banning nuclear weapons, a top government official in Tokyo said Monday, noting U.S. nuclear deterrence is crucial to the country’s security and that its participation would send the “wrong message.” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said Japan’s national security is the primary reason it will not participate as an observer at the conference, which starts Monday in New York.

Charles L. Glaser | Journal of Strategic Studies

For most of the Cold War there was a near consensus that economically and technologically advanced countries could maintain large, survivable nuclear forces even in the face of an intense arms race… This article motivates the special issue, explaining the new debate over whether emerging technologies – including small satellites, machine learning, cyber weapons, and quantum technologies – will enable major powers to undermine each others’ nuclear retaliatory capabilities.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.