Edition

Proliferation News 4/17/25

IN THIS ISSUE: Forecasting Nuclear Escalation Risks: Cloudy With a Chance of Fallout, Trump Waved Off Israeli Strike After Divisions Emerged in His Administration, Witkoff in Apparent Reversal Says Iran Must Halt Nuclear Enrichment, Rafael Grossi, IAEA director: 'Without us, any agreement on Iran is just a piece of paper', The B-52 Bomber’s Modernization Will Be Delayed to 2026, Exclusive: Musk's SpaceX is frontrunner to build Trump's Golden Dome missile shield

Published on April 17, 2025

Jamie Kwong, Anna Bartoux, and James M. Acton | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Serious tensions between the United States and China, Russia, and North Korea create the realistic possibility of a high-intensity conventional conflict between two nuclear-armed states. Should such a conflict occur, hundreds of millions of lives could depend on preventing escalation from a conventional conflict to a nuclear war, and, if that failed, from a limited nuclear war to an all-out one. Forecasting—that is, estimating the probability of specified events’ occurring—could contribute to efforts to better understand and address the challenge of managing escalation… That said, forecasting nuclear risks—especially risks involving the detonation of a nuclear weapon—poses profound challenges.

Julian E. Barnes, Eric Schmitt, Maggie Haberman and Ronen Bergman | The New York Times

Israel had planned to strike Iranian nuclear sites as soon as next month but was waved off by President Trump in recent weeks in favor of negotiating a deal with Tehran to limit its nuclear program, according to administration officials and others briefed on the discussions. Mr. Trump made his decision after months of internal debate over whether to pursue diplomacy or support Israel in seeking to set back Iran’s ability to build a bomb, at a time when Iran has been weakened militarily and economically.

Michael R. Gordon, Laurence Norman and Benoit Faucon | The Wall Street Journal

U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff appeared to backtrack on comments that Iran could be allowed to enrich uranium at a low level in a new nuclear deal with the Trump administration, saying Tuesday that Tehran would have to abandon its enrichment program. “A deal with Iran will only be completed if it is a Trump deal,” Witkoff wrote in a post on X, adding that “Iran must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program.”

Jacques Follorou | Le Monde

Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) since 2019, Rafael Grossi is visiting Iran on Wednesday, April 16. In an interview with Le Monde, he expressed his desire for his organization to be involved in the dialogue initiated in Oman between Iran and the United States on the Iranian nuclear issue. He believes that Iran is "not far" from having nuclear weapons.

Maya Carlin | The National Interest

Efforts to incorporate new upgrades to the Cold War-era B-52 Stratofortress may be delayed by at least a year, according to the Air Force’s top weapons tester. In the latest report from the Pentagon’s Director of Operational Test & Evaluation, the Stratofortress’s modernization program is now being pushed back for fiscal year 2026. As part of this effort, the existing bomber platform will also receive the latest Raytheon active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar.

Mike Stone and Marisa Taylor | Reuters

Elon Musk's SpaceX and two partners have emerged as frontrunners to win a crucial part of President Donald Trump's "Golden Dome" missile defense shield, six people familiar with the matter said. Musk's rocket and satellite company is partnering with software maker Palantir (PLTR.O), opens new tab and drone builder Anduril on a bid to build key parts of Golden Dome, the sources said, which has drawn significant interest from the technology sector's burgeoning base of defense startups.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.