Paper
Riad al Khouri
{
"authors": [
"Riad al Khouri"
],
"type": "commentary",
"blog": "Sada",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Kuwait"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform",
"Economy"
]
}
Source: Getty
Commentary
Kuwait: Rentierism Revisited
Kuwait remains a classic rentier state, living on natural resources alone and unwilling or unable to diversify, reform, democratize, or otherwise change for the better. If anything, the emirate should be wallowing deeper in autocracy as state dependence on oil rises. Yet the politics of the country belie this.
Published on Sep 9, 2008
The past half-decade has proven to be very good for oil exporting states, as the price of oil soared from under USD $30 a barrel in most of 2003 to well over $100 in 2008. With world demand for energy strong and energy prices rising, government coffers in the Arab Gulf countries have benefited in a spectacular way. Kuwait is a case in point, as official revenues during the past fiscal year almost trebled from their 2003/4 level, mostly thanks to oil.
Kuwait government revenue for fiscal years 2003/4 and 2007/8 (USD b)
|
|
2003/4
|
2007/8
|
|
Total
|
23.1
|
67.3
|
|
From oil
|
20.5
|
62.7
|
|
Non-oil revenue
|
2.6
|
4.6
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oil as % of total
|
88.7
|
93.2
|
Source: calculated from Kuwaiti Ministry of Finance “Final Accounts 2007/8”
The bad news is that these numbers viewed in isolation suggest that Kuwait remains a classic rentier state, living on natural resources alone and unwilling or unable to diversify, reform, democratize, or otherwise change for the better. If anything, the emirate should be wallowing deeper in autocracy as state dependence on oil rises. Yet the politics of the country belie this.
Iranian economist Hossein Mahdavy introduced the rentier state concept in 1970 and others, notably Giacomo Luciani, elaborated and applied it to the emerging Arab Gulf States. Applying the notion of a rentier state implied that democratization in the region was iffy at best. This analysis is based on the observation that the vast amounts raised by oil-rich governments have little to do with taxation, being instead unearned revenue from the extraction of a natural resource. So long as states have sufficient amounts of such income, rentier state theory suggests that they may have little reason to democratize, reform, or otherwise evolve.
Does the present Kuwaiti example contradict this theory? While Kuwait is a rentier state where petroleum accounts for over 90 percent of government income, its politics are atypical of rentierism. Lively parliamentary elections give rise to a collection of disparate political actors; May 2008 elections produced a 70 percent turnout, colossal compared to turnout in some Western democracies. With different interests and ideologies increasingly independent of the ruling family, the country undergoes open debate about institutions. Parliament requests ministerial testimonies about possible corruption. The country’s ruler interferes more as a caretaker than a tyrant, to allow for a modicum of open democratic politics according to constitutional rules.
It is true that Kuwait still has a long way to go on the path towards democracy. Unfettered political activities are proscribed by a strong executive; civil society organizations depend on the clemency of state agencies to operate; and the ruling family is still the final arbiter of elite politics. Nevertheless, traditional democratic development may be possible in the Kuwaiti rentier state because of competing economic and social elites who benefit from the country’s drive towards modernization, but have different points of view concerning it. Pressure on the Kuwait system may gradually produce better representation and participation, for example in terms of gender, where the last parliamentary poll failed to elect any women, even though they made up 55 percent of the electorate. While unruly and sometimes embarrassing, Kuwait’s experience offers an example of what could be a future model for politics in a rentier state.
One factor that impedes democracy in the Middle East is the lack of government dependence on citizen support, the state instead relying on oil revenues directly, as in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, or indirectly in the case of such economies as Jordan. The political implication of this concept is that because such states do not ultimately rely for survival on domestic taxation, they are under no obligation to allow for political freedom and so can limit independent political activity that may affect social stability. However, the vast amounts of money in Kuwait and the other Arab Gulf exporters help underpin stability and so make resorting to repression less necessary. In such situations, democratic practices can and do develop.
So should the theory of the rentier state be revisited? The idea of rentierism clearly has applications even to non-oil economies; for example, Jordan has been viewed as a quasi-rentier state because of its indirect dependence on oil revenues as has Egypt because of its dependence on tourism. However, as the last five years have shown, as far as the GCC states are concerned, the old equation of oil wealth with anti-democratic rentierism may need to be refined and updated.
Riad al Khouri, co-founder and principal of KryosAdvisors, is Senior Fellow of the William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.
About the Author
Riad al Khouri
Former Visiting Scholar, Middle East Center
Riad al Khouri is an economist specializing in the Middle East and North Africa region. He has undertaken extensive research on regional trade and political economy, among other topics, and writes widely about development issues. He taught economics at the American University in Beirut (AUB) and Beirut University College (now the Lebanese American University) and worked as a consultant for the European Commission, ESCWA, GTZ, ILO, IOM, OPEC Fund, UNDP, UNIDO, USAID, and the World Bank, among many other public sector organizations, as well as for numerous private firms.
- E.U. and U.S. Free Trade Agreements in the Middle East and North Africa
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Sada
- Duqm at the Crossroads: Oman’s Strategic Port and Its Role in Vision 2040Commentary
In a volatile Middle East, the Omani port of Duqm offers stability, neutrality, and opportunity. Could this hidden port become the ultimate safe harbor for global trade?
Giorgio Cafiero, Samuel Ramani
- The Role of E-commerce in Empowering Women in Saudi Arabia: Assessing the Policy PotentialCommentary
How can Saudi Arabia turn its booming e-commerce sector into a real engine of economic empowerment for women amid persistent gaps in capital access, digital training, and workplace inclusion? This piece explores the policy fixes, from data-center integration to gender-responsive regulation, that could unlock women’s full potential in the kingdom’s digital economy.
Hannan Hussain
- A War Fueled by Hate Speech: Sudan’s Fall into FragmentationCommentary
Hate speech has spread across Sudan and become a key factor in worsening the war between the army and the Rapid Support Forces. The article provides expert analysis and historical background to show how hateful rhetoric has fueled violence, justified atrocities, and weakened national unity, while also suggesting ways to counter it through justice, education, and promoting a culture of peace.
Samar Sulaiman
- Kuwait’s Bureaucracy at a Crossroads: Why Government Innovation Stalls and How Analytics Can Reignite ReformCommentary
Kuwait’s government has repeatedly launched ambitious reforms under Kuwait Vision 2035, yet bureaucratic inefficiency, siloed institutions, and weak feedback mechanisms continue to stall progress. Adopting government analytics—real-time monitoring and evidence-based decision-making—can transform reform from repetitive announcements into measurable outcomes.
Dalal A. Marafie
- Sana'a: The Crisis of Chaotic Street Naming and Absent Urban PlanningCommentary
The chaos of street naming in Sana’a reflects the deep weakness of the Yemeni state and its failure to establish a unified urban identity, leaving residents to rely on informal, oral naming systems rooted in collective memory. This urban disorder is not merely a logistical problem but a symbolic struggle between state authority and local community identity.
Sarah Al-Kbat
