In late August, while Iraqis endured a sweltering heat wave, social media and the airwaves buzzed with a deluge of sizzling yet false information. 2,500 U.S. soldiers remain in the country to assist and advise the Iraqi Security Forces, and earlier in the month, there was a routine troop rotation marked by a ceremony at the Erbil Air Base. This was the seed of what quickly became a widespread conspiracy theory on social media and Iraqi television: the idea that the United States was hatching up new regime change schemes in Iraq and neighboring Syria, and planning to limit Iranian influence in Iraq. 

Hashtags—such as #القوات_الامريكية (“American troops”), #العزم_الصلب (“inherent resolve”, referring to ongoing U.S.-led anti-Islamic State operations), #الارتال_الامريكية (American convoys), and #جرف_الصخر (an Iraqi town occupied by pro-Iran armed groups)—popped up on Twitter (X). In some cases, commentators relied on unrelated clips to claim that the Jordanian army was also taking part in U.S.-led plans to close the Iraqi-Syrian border. Soon television hosts, politicians, and purported experts joined the chorus. Even former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki lent credibility to the speculations by suggesting that the U.S. military planned to block the Iraq-Syrian border, likely to topple Bashar al-Assad’s regime next door. 

The groundwork for this conspiracy had been laid as early as mid-2022, when former Iraqi MP Faiq Sheikh generated a buzz by making bogus claims about an international plan to topple the existing regime in Iraq no later than 2024. The idea of a military intervention in service of American interests—as opposed to a mere routine troop rotation—was also seen as consistent with other U.S. military movements in the region, including the deployment of over 3,000 marines to the Gulf in August, reportedly to protect civilian ships from Iranian aggression.

Senior U.S. and Iraqi officials moved quickly to deny the false claims. But the public commotion demonstrates how Iraqi social and traditional media spheres have become a battleground for foreign policy disinformation campaigns. Notably, the hashtags bore signs of a premeditated campaign, with many seemingly fake accounts peddling disinformation. Groups with markedly different political orientations soon got involved: on one side was an ideologically incongruent collection of individuals who oppose the current Iran-aligned government, and on other were social media figures and accounts affiliated with the pro-Iranian militia groups.

While different motives animated each camp, they both sought to spread disinformation and harness public attention to their advantage. The first side’s goal was to insinuate that the grip of pro-Iran Shia groups on power was weak, and sow panic among their popular base. In doing so, they were capitalizing on widespread feelings of discontent toward the dominant militias and political elites and their perceived corruption. The latter side promoted the claim the U.S. was indeed up to some nefarious plan, such as toppling Assad regime or propping up ISIS. They used the occasion to flex their muscles, push for the expulsion of U.S. troops from Iraq, and boost their anti-American credentials.

Although this campaign has subsided, similar incidents are to be expected. Another recent conspiracy promotes the idea that foreign embassies and organizations are working to normalize homosexuality and non-traditional gender roles. Fundamentally, the country's unregulated social media ecosystem and its highly partisan broadcast media, set within a deeply fragmented and populist political culture, is a fertile breeding ground for the emergence and dissemination of disinformation. In this context, actors with diverse political motives will continue to strive to manipulate the media, especially social media platforms, in order to shape Iraq's foreign relations.

Mohammed A. Salih is a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia. He holds a Ph.D. in communication from the University of Pennsylvania’s Annenberg School for Communication, and his research and writing focuses on Iraq and regional issues. Follow him on X @MohammedASalih.