Is Morocco’s migration policy protecting Sub-Saharan African migrants or managing them for political and security ends? This article unpacks the gaps, the risks, and the paths toward real rights-based integration.
Soufiane Elgoumri
{
"authors": [
"Ayman Omar"
],
"type": "commentary",
"blog": "Sada",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [
"Middle East"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Yemen",
"Middle East"
],
"topics": [
"Climate Change"
]
}Source: ESSA AHMED/AFP via Getty Images
Yemen is facing one of the world’s worst water crises due to extreme drought, excessive groundwater depletion, institutional collapse, and ongoing armed conflict. The war has led to the destruction of water infrastructure, contamination of sources, and the displacement of millions, reducing access to safe water. This crisis reflects a deep interconnection between political and environmental instability.
Located in a geographically challenging zone characterized by scarce water resources1 and extreme climatic conditions, ranging from arid to semi-arid, Yemen stands as one of the countries most severely affected by a chronic water crisis. The country heavily relies on rainfall, which is highly irregular in both timing and geographical distribution. Annual precipitation in Yemen typically ranges between 108 and 114 millimeters2—well below the minimum necessary for both urban and rural communities—leading to a persistent deficit in surface water resources.
Given this scarcity, reliance on groundwater has become an indispensable solution, serving as the primary source for meeting the population’s water needs. However, this critical resource is increasingly threatened by uncontrolled extraction, particularly through thousands of unlicensed wells, lack of effective institutional oversight and an absence of comprehensive strategies for sustainable management. Yemen also has one of the lowest per capita water availability rates in the world—approximately 150 cubic meters per year—compared to an average of 1,250 cubic meters in the broader Middle East and North Africa region.3 This stark disparity underscores the severity of the country’s structural water deficit. Compounding the crisis is the widespread mismanagement of water resources, especially within the agricultural sector, which accounts for over 90% of total water consumption. The near-total reliance on outdated, inefficient irrigation methods results in the loss of vast quantities of water with minimal corresponding agricultural output.
However, apart from environmental and administrative challenges, the most severe threat to Yemen’s water security over the past decade has stemmed from the ongoing armed conflicts which have had devastating impacts across all sectors—particularly, the water management system. The escalation of violence has resulted in the widespread destruction of essential water infrastructure, including dams, pumping stations, and distribution networks. As a result, millions of people have been cut off from reliable water sources and forced to rely on unsafe and unsustainable alternatives, such as tanker-delivered water or contaminated shallow wells.
The crisis was further intensified by large-scale internal displacement, which placed enormous pressure on relatively more stable regions. In many of these areas, water demand effectively doubled, overwhelming local systems and distribution networks that were not designed to accommodate such population surges. These strains might have been mitigated if not for the widespread institutional collapse of the government bodies tasked with managing water resources. As their capacity to enforce regulations, implement strategic plans, and maintain infrastructure deteriorated, the situation spiraled into what can be described as water governance chaos—marked by over-extraction, and worsening pollution.
Against this backdrop, the present article aims to examine the multifaceted impacts of protracted conflict on Yemen’s water sector through a multi-level analysis encompassing technical, environmental, institutional, and social dimensions. It seeks to deepen understanding of the complex challenges impeding water security amid declining governance, the erosion of infrastructure, and ongoing environmental and demographic pressures. As the analysis unfolds, it becomes evident that water in Yemen is no longer merely a natural resource—it has become a cornerstone of national stability. From this perspective, it is essential to deconstruct the crisis by comparing two key phases: the pre-conflict and post-conflict periods. This comparison will help explain how the water sector has transformed, shed light on its current complexities, and explore potential pathways toward restoring balance and long-term sustainability in this critical domain.
Even before the outbreak of armed conflict, Yemen was grappling with long-standing structural water challenges, driven by a complex interplay of natural and institutional factors. Reports from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)4 have emphasized that these issues were not the result of a sudden or isolated shock, but rather the product of decades of inadequate planning, mismanagement of resources, and the gradual erosion of infrastructure in a country with rapidly growing population and limited water supplies. Among the most prominent pre-conflict challenges were:
Since the escalation of armed conflict in 2015, Yemen’s water crisis has entered a far more complex and perilous phase, as the hostilities significantly worsened the already fragile situation. According to reports from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), more than 45% of Yemen’s water infrastructure—including pumping stations, distribution networks, and dams—has been either partially or completely destroyed.7 This widespread damage has had a direct and severe impact on the population’s access to safe and reliable water sources.
Armed conflicts play a critical role in reshaping the governance of water resource management systems. Their impact extends beyond immediate disruptions, leading to long-term structural transformations that affect infrastructure, governance frameworks, distribution mechanisms, and the broader socio-economic balance. These impacts can be categorized into two interrelated dimensions: direct effects, which stem from the immediate consequences of armed conflict, such as physical destruction and damage to water infrastructure; and indirect effects, which emerge from the resulting institutional chaos and the gradual erosion of both societal and administrative capacities.
Water conditions in Yemen exhibit significant regional disparities, with the challenges and risks varying based on the unique environmental, social, and demographic characteristics of each area. The following section presents an in-depth analysis of three case studies—Sana'a, Tihama, and Aden—each illustrating the water situation prior to the conflict, the direct and indirect impacts of the ongoing war, and the subsequent implications for both populations and resources. Additionally, these case studies explore the existing gaps in water management and identify potential opportunities for improvement within each region’s specific context.
Prior to the conflict, Sana'a, the capital of Yemen, was heavily reliant on groundwater to meet its water needs, as the region lacked permanent surface water sources. However, the early signs of a growing water crisis were already evident due to the ongoing over-extraction of groundwater at rates that far exceeded the natural replenishment capacity of aquifers. Compounding this issue was the lack of a comprehensive strategic vision for the modernization of water infrastructure. The absence of significant improvements in distribution networks or extraction techniques contributed to the deepening vulnerability of the water system long before the outbreak of the conflict.
The escalation of armed conflict in Sana'a has resulted in the destruction of vital water infrastructure, including pumping stations and distribution networks, severing water supplies for over three million residents of the capital. In addition, the indiscriminate drilling of wells has exacerbated the situation, leading to the rapid depletion of groundwater reserves, with some areas experiencing a decline in water levels of up to 6 meters per year. The growing reliance on water trucked in from external sources has further exacerbated the crisis, leading to a more than 400% increase in water costs and making access to clean water a significant economic and livelihood challenge for low-income households.
The Tihama region, one of Yemen’s most crucial agricultural areas, primarily relied on rainwater collected in small, local dams to meet its irrigation needs. Despite the region's vital role in food production, its water infrastructure was severely weakened due to the lack of sustainable planning, inadequate maintenance of dams, and the scarcity of long-term institutional investment.
The ongoing conflict has directly contributed to the destruction or systematic neglect of local dams, significantly reducing the region's capacity to capture and store rainwater for agricultural use. Additionally, increased pressure on these limited water resources has intensified local disputes among farmers, escalating social tensions and complicating water regulation and management efforts. As a result, agricultural productivity has declined, further exacerbating food insecurity and increasing the population's reliance on humanitarian aid.
Aden's water supply relied on a combination of desalination plants and groundwater projects. However, these systems had long struggled with inefficiencies and were unable to meet the increasing demand driven by rapid urbanization. Additionally, the city's water distribution networks were in a state of disrepair, primarily due to a lack of regular maintenance and updates.
The ongoing conflict has severely impaired desalination plants and destroyed water distribution networks, leaving groundwater as the primary, though increasingly unreliable, source of water. This crisis has been further aggravated by the leakage of industrial and oil waste into aquifers, significantly complicating the accessibility of drinking water. The struggle for control over resources within the city has heightened tensions and further strained public service management.
In remote rural areas such as Amran, Saada, and Abyan, the water crisis is particularly severe, with limited water infrastructure in place. These communities primarily rely on surface wells or manually collected rainwater to meet their needs. As the conflict intensified, these areas became increasingly isolated, cut off from institutional support networks and humanitarian aid. This exclusion from reliable water sources has disproportionately affected women and children, who are forced to travel long distances to fetch water, often in precarious security and health conditions.
The three case studies, along with the challenges faced by remote rural areas, highlight the complex and varied water issues exacerbated by the conflict in Yemen. These disparities underscore the need for multidimensional strategic approaches that account for regional and social differences.
Key actions should include rehabilitating investments in water infrastructure, strengthening local governance, and establishing robust international cooperation mechanisms to rebuild Yemen's water security system in a sustainable and equitable manner.
The water scene in Yemen today reflects the profound and multifaceted nature of a crisis where water resources are deeply intertwined with political, economic, and social transformations. This intersection has created a new front in the ongoing conflict, exposing vulnerabilities in state structures. Through both historical analysis and field research, this study demonstrates that Yemen's water crisis is not merely the result of a geographical location plighted by limited natural resources or a volatile climate, but rather a complex consequence of poor development policies, a lack of strategic vision, and an unchecked depletion of groundwater—particularly driven by unsustainable agricultural practices such as qat cultivation.
Several factors have exacerbated the crisis, including the disintegration of state institutions and the loss of their regulatory functions, the lack of integrated planning, and the erosion of the state’s capacity to respond effectively to climate change. As the conflict has escalated over the past decade, its impact has extended beyond the destruction of water infrastructure; it has also undermined the broader administrative framework, including agencies responsible for water management, regulation, and oversight of drilling and resource usage, leading to increased resource mismanagement and a decline in operational efficiency.
The waves of internal displacement that followed the outbreak of the war have become one of the most pressing challenges for the water system in Yemen. Host communities have been forced to confront unprecedented difficulties in meeting basic water needs in areas already suffering from severe scarcity. This has escalated social tensions, deepened economic vulnerabilities, and exacerbated the psychological fragility of the population. The deterioration of the situation has not been confined to institutional and social dimensions but has also extended to the natural environment. Military operations, coupled with chemical and biological leaks, have contaminated both surface and groundwater sources, worsening the spread of waterborne diseases, particularly cholera, particularly in the absence of adequate healthcare infrastructure and rapid response mechanisms. In this context, the water crisis in Yemen cannot be understood in isolation from the broader environmental and political landscape. The overlapping issues of water scarcity, pollution, and state failure have made the conflict itself a significant driver of this environmental disaster.
This study adopts an integrated analytical approach, emphasizing the need to reconsider the role of natural resources within conflict environments. It advocates for the incorporation of "human security" and "environmental security" dimensions into a comprehensive water security framework. The issue is no longer solely about providing water as a technical resource; it is now fundamentally tied to social justice, political stability, societal cohesion, and the need to address the impacts of climate change.
Despite the severity of the situation, there is potential for positive transformation. By leveraging local capacities alongside regional and international efforts, there are opportunities to rebuild Yemen’s water system on a more robust and sustainable foundation. Investing in integrated resource management, strengthening good governance, and restoring institutional effectiveness are essential steps toward any meaningful economic and social recovery.
Saving Yemen from the looming water crisis requires, first and foremost, genuine political will, effective regional cooperation, and balanced international intervention that goes beyond emergency relief efforts to include the establishment of sustainable, strategic projects focused on building national capacities, rehabilitating infrastructure, and fostering community awareness about the value of water and the importance of its preservation. Only through this integrated approach can Yemen break free from the cycle of water scarcity and ensure a secure future for its generations to come.
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
Is Morocco’s migration policy protecting Sub-Saharan African migrants or managing them for political and security ends? This article unpacks the gaps, the risks, and the paths toward real rights-based integration.
Soufiane Elgoumri
Iraq’s foreign policy is being shaped by its own internal battles—fractured elites, competing militias, and a state struggling to speak with one voice. The article asks: How do these divisions affect Iraq’s ability to balance between the U.S. and Iran? Can Baghdad use its “good neighbor” approach to reduce regional tensions? And what will it take for Iraq to turn regional investments into real stability at home? It explores potential solutions, including strengthening state institutions, curbing rogue militias, improving governance, and using regional partnerships to address core economic and security weaknesses so Iraq can finally build a unified and sustainable foreign policy.
Mike Fleet
How can Saudi Arabia turn its booming e-commerce sector into a real engine of economic empowerment for women amid persistent gaps in capital access, digital training, and workplace inclusion? This piece explores the policy fixes, from data-center integration to gender-responsive regulation, that could unlock women’s full potential in the kingdom’s digital economy.
Hannan Hussain
Hate speech has spread across Sudan and become a key factor in worsening the war between the army and the Rapid Support Forces. The article provides expert analysis and historical background to show how hateful rhetoric has fueled violence, justified atrocities, and weakened national unity, while also suggesting ways to counter it through justice, education, and promoting a culture of peace.
Samar Sulaiman
The August 2025 government decision to restrict weapons to the Lebanese state, starting with Palestinian arms in the camps, marked a major test of Lebanon’s ability to turn a long-standing slogan into practical policy. Yet the experiment quickly exposed political hesitation, social gaps, and factional divisions, raising the question of whether it can become a model for addressing more sensitive files such as Hezbollah’s weapons.
Souhayb Jawhar