Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israeli kibbutzim in the Gaza envelope has thrust the Palestinian cause back into the international spotlight, after a period of relative abeyance. Over the past month, Hezbollah's involvement in the conflict has significantly increased the cost of an Israeli ground invasion in Gaza: Tel Aviv was compelled to deploy troops and resources not only to defend its southern border but also to secure its entire northern region. Now, the key question is how this conflict will impact Hezbollah itself.
The war has restored Hezbollah’s status in the eyes of many Arabs as a major resistance movement against the Israeli occupation. During the Syrian war, anti-Hezbollah forces both in Lebanon and abroad denounced the movement as a Shiite militia that targeted Sunnis and worked to thwart any attempt to topple the Alawite regime in Damascus. But the group’s intervention in the current war to try to prevent an Israeli ground invasion of the Gaza Strip has restored its popularity, and Arab supporters of the Palestinian cause now chant for Hezbollah in their demonstrations.
By targeting Israeli military infrastructure, Hezbollah has sought to change the rules of engagement with Israel. The group has methodically targeted and destroyed Israel’s advanced surveillance systems, including surveillance towers and eavesdropping and jamming devices, which enable Israel to monitor all movement along the Lebanese side of the border. This has not only compromised Israel’s espionage capacity and granted Hezbollah greater maneuverability, but has also enabled Hezbollah to extend its targets beyond Israeli-occupied Lebanese territories, such as the Shebaa Farms and Kfar Shuba Hills, to Israeli sites along the border strip. If Israel decides to rebuild its surveillance infrastructure, it is expected that Hezbollah will continue to target it even after the end of the current war.
The ongoing conflict has also strengthened the bonds between members of the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance.” The unification of this bloc has ensured that any party will be supported by the others and protected against future Israeli aggression. This is especially important for Hezbollah, whose ability to confront Israeli military forces in the occupied Lebanese territories will be bolstered. During the past few weeks, this doctrine has already begun to take effect as armed groups close to Iran have launched strikes against U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria in response to their support of Israel's war on Gaza. Additionally, Houthi movement has launched several missiles towards Israel, although the U.S. warships sought to intercept many of them in the Red Sea.
Moreover, by actively engaging in the conflict, the party has managed to transcend sectarian divides and expand its popularity within the Druze and Sunni communities in Lebanon. Druze leader, Walid Jumblatt, publicly declared his support for Hezbollah, pledging to stand by the party and urging residents of the mountainous Druze-majority region to host displaced Shiites should a conflict erupt along the border. So too has Sheikh Hassan Merheb, a prominent Sunni cleric in Lebanon known for his outspoken criticism of Hezbollah's involvement in the Syrian war, openly endorsed the militant organization and declared that the Sunni community would rally behind Hezbollah if the conflict with Israel escalates.
The Christian community in Lebanon, on the other hand, has several concerns about the ongoing war. They fear that if Israel defeats Hamas, it may be tempted to launch a full-scale war on Hezbollah in Lebanon, further impacting the already fragile Lebanese economy. Moreover, they worry that Israel’s success in deporting Palestinians from Gaza could impede the return of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon to their homeland, and their naturalization in Lebanon would become inevitable. As a result, the power of the Christian minority, which is already grappling with a demographic decline, would be further weakened.
Hezbollah's stance on the Gaza conflict will be directly tied to on-the-ground developments. The party's overarching goals are to preserve Hamas’ authority in the Gaza Strip and prevent displacement of Palestinians. Consequently, the scope of Hezbollah's operations in southern Lebanon are expected to escalate as the dynamics of the conflict in Gaza continue to evolve.
Abbas Assi holds a PhD in International Relations from the University of Leeds in the UK. He previously worked at the Center for Arab Unity Studies. Follow him on Twitter: @DrAbbasAssi.
