In The Media
Martha Brill Olcott
{
"authors": [
"Martha Brill Olcott"
],
"type": "other",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "russia",
"programs": [
"Russia and Eurasia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Central Asia",
"Turkmenistan"
],
"topics": [
"Climate Change"
]
}
Source: Getty
Other
Turkmenistan: Real Energy Giant or Eternal Potential?
Turkmenistan has the gas reserves necessary to realize its plan to increase production. However, several geographic and political issues may make it difficult to export Turkmen gas.
Published on Dec 10, 2013
Source: James a. Baker III Institute for Public Policy
Turkmenistan has enormous gas reserves, estimated at 13.4 trillion cubic meters (473.2 trillion cubic feet), and is generally ranked fourth globally, behind Russia, Iran, and Qatar. The country’s oil reserves, estimated at 600 million barrels, are substantially smaller. The country has announced plans to increase gas production to 230 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/y), or 8,122 billion cubic feet per year, by 2030—a threefold increase from its previous production high in 1990, and over 3½ times production levels in 2012.
The country obviously has the reserves to justify the optimism of its announced plans, but the natural challenges of exporting gas from this land-locked country and the self-imposed difficulty of doing business in the republic combine to make it far from clear whether Turkmenistan will be able to realize its full potential in the global gas market.This chapter will discuss the development of Turkmenistan’s natural gas sector and the difficulties foreign investors face in attempting to bring Turkmen gas to market. The chapter proceeds in four parts. Part I, “A Brief History,” provides a very brief look at the development of independent Turkmenistan’s political and economic structure. Part II, “The Challenge of Doing Business in Turkmenistan,” describes how Turkmenistan’s business environment has changed under the two presidents that have led the country since independence, the structure of political and economic power, and the pitfalls that foreign investors face. Part III, “Turkmenistan’s Export Challenge,” examines three different primary export scenarios for Turkmen gas—to Russia, Iran, and China—as well as a variety of other planned or previously hoped for export routes that have not come to fruition. Finally, Part IV, “Could a Libyan Scenario Occur in Turkmenistan?” discusses possible sources of social unrest and the potential for drastic political change in the country....
Read the full article on the website of the James A. Baker III institute for Public Policy.
About the Author
Martha Brill Olcott
Former Senior Associate, Russia and Eurasia Program and, Co-director, al-Farabi Carnegie Program on Central Asia
Olcott is professor emerita at Colgate University, having taught political science there from 1974 to 2002. Prior to her work at the endowment, Olcott served as a special consultant to former secretary of state Lawrence Eagleburger.
- After Crimea: Will Kazakhstan be Next in Putin’s Reintegration Project?
- China’s Unmatched Influence in Central AsiaArticle
Martha Brill Olcott
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- “Greening” the Maghreb or Exploiting It?Paper
Unless the European Union-led energy transition provides economic development to Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia, the process may be perceived as a new form of extraction.
Yasmine Zarhloule
- How to Join the EU in Three Easy StepsCommentary
Montenegro and Albania are frontrunners for EU enlargement in the Western Balkans, but they can’t just sit back and wait. To meet their 2030 accession ambitions, they must make a strong positive case.
Dimitar Bechev, Iliriana Gjoni
- The United States Has an Internal Displacement ProblemArticle
By reorganizing federal disaster policy around the rights of displaced people, the United States could unlock additional federal resources, accelerate the rebuilding of lives and livelihoods, and reduce suffering and economic disruption.
Kayly Ober
- BRIC Is Critical for U.S. National Security. After a Yearlong Legal Battle, It’s Back.Commentary
Its reinstatement should be celebrated, but it retains some major shortcomings.
Leonardo Martinez-Diaz
- One Year After the Great Aid Recession, Investments in Climate Mobility Offer Cost-Effective ReturnsCommentary
Climate mobility interventions can vary, but they all present opportunities to unlock transformative results that mitigate costs associated with inaction.
Alejandro Martin Rodriguez
