In approximately twelve months, Indian voters from Kanyakumari to Kashmir will go to the polls to select their next parliament. The country’s 2019 general election—like previous contests—will be the largest democratic exercise in world history. More than 850 million voters will be eligible to help determine which political party or alliance will form the government and, in turn, who will serve as prime minister.
Electoral outcomes are notoriously difficult to predict in India’s fragmented, hypercompetitive democracy. But one need not go out on a limb to declare that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi would be the clear favorite if the election were held today. Following the BJP’s decisive 2014 mandate, many analysts confidently proclaimed that Modi would remain in power for at least two, if not three, terms. Opinion polls reveal that Modi remains highly popular after four years in office, and the BJP has managed to methodically expand its national footprint in numerous state elections since 2014. The opposition, comprised of the once-dominant Indian National Congress and a plethora of regional parties, has struggled to counter the BJP onslaught.
Yet the election’s clear front-runner is far from invulnerable, despite anticipation of a BJP cakewalk in 2019. Although the intricacies of the upcoming race—such as the selection of candidates and the rhetoric of campaigns—remain unknown one year out, underlying structural conditions suggest far rockier terrain may lie ahead. In particular, four crucial objectives keep BJP strategists up at night: expanding beyond regional strongholds, recruiting new—and retaining old—coalition partners, withstanding a disappointing economic performance, and contending with fluctuations in voter mobilization. The party’s performance in the 2019 election will hinge largely on its ability to address these potential vulnerabilities and the opposition’s ability to exploit them.
2014 and Beyond
To understand the BJP’s position today, one must recall how unusual India’s 2014 election results were. Between 2004 and 2014, the Congress Party and its allies (known collectively as the United Progressive Alliance, or UPA) ran the central government in New Delhi. Although the UPA oversaw record economic growth during its first term, its second term was markedly less positive, as a slowing economy, doubts about its leadership, and an endless parade of corruption scandals badly dented the Congress-led alliance’s credibility.
In an era of fractured political mandates in New Delhi, the Modi-led BJP achieved what many analysts believed was unthinkable: it won a clear, single-party majority in the lower house of the Indian parliament (the Lok Sabha) by capturing 282 of 543 seats (see figure 1). Its political allies—members of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA)—netted another fifty-three seats. Although the BJP campaigned under the banner of “Mission 272” (a number that represents the threshold for a parliamentary majority), few Indians (even within the BJP itself) believed that the party was likely to meet, let alone surpass, this mark on its own.
The 2014 electoral outcome was historic. No party had obtained a clear majority of Lok Sabha seats on its own since 1984 when the Congress did so after the assassination of former prime minister Indira Gandhi. 2014 was the first time a non-Congress party had achieved an outright majority by itself without the need for a large, unwieldy coalition. Meanwhile, the Congress sank to its lowest total in history—a paltry forty-four seats. Prior to 2014, the fewest seats the Congress had won in a general election was 114 in 1999. In addition, the 2014 election saw record voter turnout: 66.4 percent of eligible voters (or roughly 554 million voters) cast ballots, a sharp uptick from the 58 percent recorded in the two previous elections.
With each passing year, the national reach of the BJP has grown while the reach of the Congress has shrunk. The BJP and its allies now run twenty-one of India’s twenty-nine states—home to over 70 percent of the Indian population (see figure 2). Prior to Modi’s election, the NDA controlled just eight states. The BJP’s gains have largely come at the expense of the Congress; whereas the latter ran thirteen states prior to the last general election, today it governs in just four. Furthermore, only two of these (Karnataka and Punjab) have substantial populations (with roughly 90 million residents between them).
The lion’s share of the credit for the BJP’s resurgence belongs to Modi, who remains the most popular politician in India. In May 2014, 36 percent of Indians surveyed named him as their preferred candidate for prime minister, compared to just 14 percent for Congress President Rahul Gandhi. Although Modi’s rating might sound low from a comparative perspective, it is remarkably high for India’s fragmented political system in which 464 parties contested the 2014 general election. While Gandhi’s rating had risen to 20 percent by January 2018, Modi’s popularity has remained extremely stable throughout his four years in office (hovering around 37 percent). Historically, Gandhi’s rating has proven erratic, in part due to his twin struggles with consistency and effectiveness.
Reimagining the Map
Pulling off an encore performance of the BJP’s sweeping 2014 victory will be a tall order; to compensate for potential losses in its core areas, the party must venture into new territory. In 2014, the BJP virtually swept areas where it traditionally enjoys strong support in northern and western India (see figure 3). Just eight states—Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh—accounted for over 75 percent of the BJP’s tally in parliament. Collectively, these states account for 273 seats, of which the BJP won 216 (nearly 80 percent).
Running the table in two consecutive elections will be an uphill battle. Indian voters are legendary for their tendency to harbor anti-incumbency sentiments; research suggests that individual members of parliament (MPs) are just as likely to get thrown out of office at the end of their term as to get voted back in. There are also state-level anti-incumbency effects that have negative spillovers on national politics. Parliamentary candidates representing a given state’s ruling party enjoy an electoral advantage in national elections, but only when national elections are held early in the state government’s term. Once this honeymoon period is over, holding power in India’s states becomes a liability in general elections. This poses a problem for the BJP, which serves as the ruling party in all eight of these core states; in five of them, its governments are nearing the ends of their terms.
Because Modi and BJP President Amit Shah—a longtime Modi aide and a savvy campaign strategist—know engineering another sweep of these eight core states will be difficult, they have placed great importance on expanding the BJP’s footprint into parts of the country where it traditionally has been weak. Hence, the BJP’s painstaking devotion to breaking into India’s northeast—long considered to be a bastion of the Congress and smaller regional parties. The northeast is often seen as inconsequential to the overall electoral picture given that it accounts for just 3.7 percent of India’s population. Yet the region boasts twenty-five parliamentary seats, a tempting prize for a party that covets new territory to compensate for losses likely to be sustained elsewhere. Thanks to a series of recent state-level victories, the BJP now sits in government in seven of these eight states and is building up organizational and alliance networks across the region; as a relatively new player in northeastern India, the BJP is less likely to fall prey to Indian voters’ antipathy for incumbents there than in the party’s traditional strongholds. Whereas the Congress retains the capacity to put up a good fight in the Hindi heartland, its stature in the northeast has rapidly diminished.
Having established a foothold in northeastern India, the BJP now aims to increase its strength along India’s eastern seaboard in major states such as Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and West Bengal. In a fifth state, Andhra Pradesh, the BJP has worked primarily through a key alliance partner—the Telugu Desam Party (TDP). The four aforementioned states serve as a sort of firewall the BJP has struggled to penetrate in national elections. All told, these five states collectively account for 144 seats in the parliament. Each is home to one (or more) powerful parties with strong ties to linguistic, regional, and cultural identities the BJP currently lacks.
However, this firewall may be fracturing. In West Bengal, the BJP trails the ruling Trinamool Congress Party in terms of statewide appeal. But it views the demise of the two principal opposition forces—the Left (a coalition of left-leaning parties) and the Congress—as providing a crucial opening for it to emerge as the second-largest party. The ruling Biju Janata Dal of Odisha won twenty of twenty-one parliamentary seats in 2014, ceding just one to the BJP. But the latter won one-quarter of the vote and has subsequently performed well in municipal elections. In Tamil Nadu, the BJP is a bit player on its own but sees the potential to make inroads through alliances. Fissures within the state’s ruling party, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, have given the BJP hope that the party system might be ripe for realignment.
Coalition Dynamics
Sustaining previous hard-won gains and breaking new ground in pockets of the country outside BJP strongholds, however, will require partners. On this score, the BJP’s prognosis is mixed.
On the one hand, thanks to the widespread sense that the BJP has the wind at its back, the party has become the central pole around which politics in India revolves. This distinguished position once belonged to the Congress, but its recent electoral stumbles and the BJP’s abundant successes have decisively changed the equation. In three recent state elections—in Goa, Manipur, and Meghalaya—the BJP failed to emerge as the single largest party. Nonetheless, thanks to its allure as an alliance partner, the BJP formed governments in all three states by winning over several smaller parties who decided to join a party gaining momentum rather than one appearing to lose it. Across states, the BJP, not the Congress, seems to be the default governing party.
Yet recent events suggest that the BJP’s electoral coalition is showing signs of strain. Existing BJP allies are voicing concerns about the party’s methods, raising the possibility that its electoral coalition could fracture. Two of the BJP’s biggest allies, the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and the TDP in Andhra Pradesh, have recently put the BJP on notice that they are unhappy with its “arrogant” leadership style. The Shiv Sena announced in January 2018 that it would contest the 2019 elections alone, rather than with the BJP. In March, the TDP pulled its ministers from the central cabinet in New Delhi to express disappointment with the Modi government’s failure to help Andhra Pradesh tap additional central government funds. When the BJP refused to budge, the TDP announced its decision to formally exit the alliance. These ruptures, while not fatal or irreversible, potentially complicate the BJP’s electoral arithmetic in 2019. If the BJP is successfully tarred as anti-Andhra, it would be difficult for the party to notch a pre-poll alliance with any of the major regional parties there, increasing the likelihood that a sizeable chunk of the state’s twenty-five seats would be out of the BJP’s reach. In Maharashtra, provided the opposition coalition remains intact, the split with the Shiv Sena could create a three-way race.
Luckily for the BJP, the opposition remains in disarray. The Congress has been slow to rectify the organizational and leadership deficiencies laid bare in 2014. As one senior party leader has mused, the Congress has faced electoral crises before, but what it faces today is an existential crisis. While it will likely gain seats in 2019, one Congress leader privately admitted that a triple-digit figure would be a stretch at present.1 Left parties have seen a precipitous decline nearly everywhere save for the state of Kerala, its last remaining stronghold. The upstart Aam Aadmi Party, which came to power in the Delhi state assembly by way of an assertive, agitational brand of politics, has struggled to extend its reach beyond the national capital. Moreover, parties opposed to the BJP have failed to coordinate and pool their votes so as to keep the BJP out of power.
There have been two notable exceptions where opposition parties have set aside their differences and forged a degree of bonhomie. The first was the 2015 state election in Bihar, where a so-called grand alliance of opposition parties joined hands to keep the BJP from winning power. The opposition alliance won a resounding victory, but this short-lived marriage of convenience ultimately ended when one party defected. More recently, in March 2018, two rival regional parties in Uttar Pradesh buried their long-standing differences to jointly defeat the BJP in a special election. Regional players could give the BJP a run for its money in their respective states, but doing so will require them to work cooperatively—something that does not come naturally to rivals who bitterly jostle for political space. The effects of the BJP’s own alliance drama will be mitigated if the opposition proves unable or unwilling to do business together in 2019.
Economic Anxiety
But it is not only allies the BJP must worry about retaining; many voters who were swayed by Modi’s promise to usher in acche din (good times) by reenergizing the Indian economy have also grown restive. In 2014, India was plagued by slumping growth, ballooning deficits, stalled investments, and soaring inflation—offering the BJP untold opportunities to critique the Congress Party’s mismanagement of bread-and-butter issues. Although invocations of Hindu majoritarianism also populated the BJP’s entreaties, it was the BJP’s insistence that it would rectify the declining economy that resonated across the country. Yet as economic progress under Modi has fallen short of expectations, anxieties about the lack of job creation have led to massive popular protests in state after state. While the intensity and scope of voter disaffection with India’s economy is not certain, there are signs that disquiet is rising among rural voters who decisively backed the BJP four years ago. Given that farmers account for roughly half of India’s labor force, rural economic woes raise alarm bells for every incumbent politician.
BJP strategists once believed that economic revival would be the hallmark of the 2019 campaign. Unfortunately for them, the economy has not experienced a uniform revival (see figure 4). Growth, while high by international standards, remains well below the country’s potential. A failure to deal quickly with a systemic banking crisis has bogged down the domestic investment cycle. Inflation, which has fallen from the double-digit levels of the tenure of the Congress, remains a risk in an election year when the pressure to spend will be elevated. Furthermore, the Modi government’s decisions to abruptly remove high-value currency notes from circulation and enact the sweeping Goods and Services Tax reform have hurt short-term growth, irrespective of their longer-term merits. More importantly, for the average Indian, job growth has been anemic. According to the Reserve Bank of India, total employment actually shrank between 2014 and 2016. While it appears that nonfarm jobs grew over this period, farming jobs declined—perhaps as a result of successive droughts.
The BJP is betting that its flagship welfare schemes might inoculate it against its patchy economic record. Criticized for having cozy links to corporate capital, Modi’s administration has doggedly tried to burnish its pro-poor credentials by doubling down on major welfare schemes—such as granting every household a bank account, initiating free cooking gas connections to families below the poverty line, and ensuring universal affordable housing.
These efforts notwithstanding, economic travails are especially apparent in rural India. Although once the bailiwick of the Congress, many rural voters in 2014 switched their allegiance to the BJP—a party that has historically performed better with city-dwellers. The rural shift toward the BJP could easily swing back to the Congress; for instance, available data suggests that support for the BJP alliance among farmers has declined over the past year. Indeed, recent distress in the farming sector is likely sending chills down the spines of BJP leaders. Despite Modi’s promises to double agrarian incomes by 2022, agriculture remains in a state of disrepair. While the causes of this distress are largely structural, proximate factors such as the decline in the prices of several agricultural commodities and shortfalls in farm production have stimulated outrage among many rural Indians.
A clear warning shot was fired in December 2017 during elections in Gujarat, a longtime BJP bastion. Although it retained its majority in the state assembly, the BJP encountered serious rural opposition—especially in the key region of Saurashtra—where the Congress prevailed by capitalizing on caste politics and the waning fortunes of farmers. In March 2018, as many as 50,000 farmers in Maharashtra descended on the state capital of Mumbai to demand the BJP state government move swiftly to aid them. How widespread this disaffection has spread is unclear. All eyes will be on upcoming state elections in Karnataka (in May 2018) and Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan (in December 2018) to discern whether this alleged drop-off in rural locales is sustained.
Voter Mobilization
A final concern for the BJP in 2019 is voter mobilization. In 2014, the party successfully channeled popular disaffection with the incumbent Congress Party into record voter turnout (66.4 percent). Voter turnout had previously peaked at 64 percent in 1984 and fell to between 56 and 62 percent in subsequent election cycles. As Neelanjan Sircar has pointed out, there was a strong association between the growth in voter turnout and the improved fortunes of the BJP in the 2014 election (see figure 5). A key source of strength came from young voters. Research has demonstrated that states with the largest increases in the share of young, first-time voters in 2014 also experienced the biggest gains in BJP vote share. With the novelty of Modi and BJP rule in New Delhi wearing thin, there is a risk that voter turnout will return to ordinary levels, reducing the BJP’s enthusiasm advantage.
One key demographic the BJP believes it can energize in 2019 is women. Although they do not vote as a bloc per se, the party believes several of its welfare schemes have special resonance with women and can influence their votes. This is significant because Indian females are voting in greater numbers than ever before. In 2014, women voted at higher rates than men in sixteen of India’s thirty-five states and union territories. At the state level, female turnout now regularly surpasses male turnout.
Looking ahead, the BJP’s predicament is how to mobilize voters as an incumbent party. One possibility is that the party will choose to invoke the Hindu nationalist card more expressly and more intensively to rile up its base. Such a move toward polarization would become even more likely if the opposition successfully bands together to forge a common anti-BJP front. Yet such a risky strategy could turn off as many (or more) voters as it galvanizes.
Conclusion
One year in advance, many details of the 2019 race remain unknown, but its structural drivers are quickly coming into view. Modi and Shah are wasting no time in recalibrating their approach to mitigate the BJP’s unexpected challenges. For instance, the government’s most recent budget was packed with pro-poor rhetoric and numerous sops meant to allay rural anger. As existing allies are growing wary with the BJP’s modus operandi, the party’s high command has stepped up its outreach to smooth frayed relations. And, concerned about waning voter enthusiasm, Modi has directed the party’s elected representatives to redouble efforts to connect with constituents. In one instance, Modi is reported to have warned sitting BJP MPs that they must amass at least 300,000 followers on social media or risk losing their party tickets.
The opposition is making adjustments as well. Gandhi and the once-dithering Congress appears more focused and consistent. The opposition, at least rhetorically, is embracing the need to forge a common anti-BJP front in 2019. Twelve months is an eternity in politics, but one thing has become evident: once thought to be a cakewalk for the BJP, the 2019 election is turning into a contest.
The author is grateful to Matthew Lillehaugen for excellent research and editorial assistance and Ryan DeVries for thoughtful edits.
In the months ahead, Carnegie scholars will be analyzing various dimensions of India’s upcoming election battle—including coalition dynamics, the shifting demographic trends in the country’s electorate, and the impact of elections on India’s foreign policy. Keep up to date with the project at CarnegieEndowment.org/IndiaElects2019/.
Notes
1 Author interview with a Congress Party MP, New Delhi, January 2018.
Comments(17)
Author seems to have downplayed many important developments. Those developments are really important for the survival of the democracy and peace in india and world at large . Besides dissatisfaction towards congress due to alleged rampant corruption (which author clearly pointed out) , if author had tried to dwell into how Modi and his IT team indulged into propaganda campaign and have been swinging election based on misinformation , article could have appeared balanced. More than the development plank , iota of fake news and misinformation has been main contributor to the growing footprint of BJP across the country. This misinformation has caught up with new voters who are mostly illeterate and has newly gotten access to internet. BJP was smart in a way that ,they knew they will never be able to fulfill election promises . considering the credentials of entire top leadership of BJP , it was always beyond their abilities to deliver anything substantial. It was this confidence about their abilities that made them to come up with plan B. The plan B was to character assasinate the opposition leaders through social media campaign and discredit any opposition leader who could challenge Modi eventually. This plan B is what i think will bring them to power again because character assasination has actually discredited any leader who could challenge Modi. These leaders have no resources to counter vast fake news network BJP has produced with its financial clouts. Their attempt to discredit a story by a highly respected Indian newspaper The Indian Express could be an ideal case for study. One new website "www.thetruepicture.in" was retwitted by 13 union ministers of Modi government. It was said to debunking Fake news but it turns out that they were trying to debunk a real story by The indian Express which was critical of the government. It proves that discrediting every opposition by any means has been most potent tool for current regime . I can safely summerise that Modi will win upcoming 2019 elections, not because he has any substantial achievement to show but lack of credible opposition leader. Looking at how last four years have unfolded ,one more term to Modi is not only dangerous to india as a nation but also to the world because there have been reasonable signs to believe that " Saffron terror" is not just an idea but the reality and that reality is destroying india at present. Its just matter of time that saffron terror will spill over to international borders just like islamic terror did. Any chaos spread by india would be difficult for world to handle.
People like you who follow parties and not the work done, will never be satisfied unless your party comes in command! Regardless it anticipates in the betterment of the country on not. The problem is that people are so blind folded that, even after knowing the difference between bad and good, they will only choose to see the bad in the good. I am sure you have heard a phrase in Hindi"Bahis ke aage Bin Bajana" if you are non hindi speaking it is translated as "Playing the flute to a buffalo" and equivalent phrase in English is "talking to a brick wall", suits very well who cannot see that all the leaders of our nation including Nehru before the current one have only one agenda! I need not say it here. This leader has different views, ethics, and governance. He is surely making progress slowly and steadily. Try the experiment in you own house. Let the dirt keep building for 70 years and clean it in 7 hours.... If given chance I have more hopes from this government than any other Idiot who is running (Currently) to be leader of our nation. It's definitely a contest for the Modi Government! I rest my case!
A very thorough analysis and projection of BJP’s election prospects. Modi as you correctly point out Is very popular and retains thesupport of a majority of the people . He is the single most important reason for BJP’s electoral success. BJP does not have a deep bench to rely on for political and governing success. You correctly point out to less than vibrant growth. Even the data and statistics used to calculate growth is questionable, since they were changed when Modi gained power. More attention needs to be paid on the governing aspects of winning power. BJP’s success should be measured not just on its electoral success but on improvement in people’s lives. Human development index is a broad measure of that and it has not shown a significant improvement. Swatch Bharati, an attractive slogan, has not reduced water and air pollution. The air in major metros is not breathable, it is almost poisonous. Clean drinking water is unavailable. Those who can afford it, have special filteration and water sanitizing units in their homes. Bottled water has found increasing use. Even below ground water is highly polluted. All the rivers are polluted with raw sewage being discharged in them. Education is a mess, wth schools even collages graduating students with below average skills. Students fro India even from private elite schools are unable to compete in international tests. Not one of India’s universities are ranked in the top 100 in the world. Corruption is still rampant, evident in all walks of life. Innovation the life blood of future growth is anemic. Vietnam outranks India in innovation. BJP’s emphasis on Hiduvita is wrong for a diverse country like India. In addition it converts a very tolerant religion into an intolerant one which is antithesis for India stood for. It has to integrate its Muslim minority into the mainstream, instead of singling them out as being less than desirable. A foreign policy failure is poor relations with countries in the immediate neighborhood, including Hindu Nepal and Buddhist Sri Lanka.
It may not be a cake walk. It could be a contest. But after all this research and analysis, the hesitation to predict the outcome, is telling.
A major change in situation has taken place and Congress is no longer a major party. Other parties are split and unlikely to form an electoral belt. So BJP will be the biggest party though not the largest one. For the next election, BJP is the best bet.
"So BJP will be the biggest party though not the largest one." Biggest & Largest - what is the difference?
I think it's not overnight job to keep India in track which most of us are believing and expecting it from BJP. Commenting on irrelevant things without actual knowledge of progress may not always accepted. I am agree that making promises and fulfilling it is now nightmare but I could observe one thing that BJP is trying to washout the garbage that Congress has put on India since Independent. It does not matter whether Modi will be next PM or not but at least we should learn supporting the leaders who are working hard to keep India in a better place. It is very easy to say but really hard to work. so lets change us and ideology before criticizing government.
All parties have different factions.
Even though a BJP supporter I feel.the coalition dynamics presently seen is going to be a threat for b jp But even if a self interested coalition comes to power in 2019 there are strong doubts about its lasting for 5 years This us the biggest curse for our democracy
All the eggs in one basket. If the basket breaks, ------.
I've seen this ongoing SAGA a lot on the Internet. I don't give a damn who's gonna be the next PM. Indian politics is nothing but garbage, a stinky garbage. 90% of our Indian politicians ain't well-educated. They're illiterate goons who know how to deal with the public. Some say Modi should win again, and some say he should lose this time. If he wins in 2019, he would do exactly the same what he's doing now, NOTHING. He had a childhood dream to tour the world. There are 195 countries in the world today. Maybe 5 years ain't enough to visit 195 countries. So he just wants one more opportunity so he can comfortably visit the countries left to be visited. He made false promises and commitments just because he wanted to be the PM. I don't want Modi again. But if he loses in 2019, who should be the Prime Minister? Rahul Gandhi? Hell no! We can't make a guy our PM who can't even speak properly. However, Rahul is much better than Modi. If Rahul Gandhi becomes the PM, he'll do NOTHING just like Modi is doing. But unlike Modi, he can't fool us because he's a fool himself. It's something like Hyena and Lion. Both see us as their prey. Hyena can eat you alive without killing you. But the lion will kill you first and then eat you. If you work as a prime minister, it ain't bad to make money. Make money as much as you can. We have no problem with that. But you shouldn't forget your job. India still remains one of the most underdeveloped countries in respect of per capita income. Why? It was you who said, just give me 1 year and I'll show you the changes. It has been more than 4 years, but we haven't seen those "acche din" and the so-called "vikas". The situation is as same as before, even I see it worse than before. You came up with an idea of "Demonetization". Why? Just because you wanted Uttar Pradesh. Or maybe Mukesh Ambani was involved in this (whatever it was I don't care). When I see Indian politics, I close my eyes instantly and start thinking, "when we'll get a guy like Atal Bihari Vajpai ji".
Perfectly answered! Yes, Indian Politics is a bunch of baloney and to have even a tiny dent on this fact, I do believe that it should be us Indians who should change their mentality first. After all politicians are nothing but mere representatives of the society.
seems like you are a citizen of haven, oh by the way even they have politics (Very Nasty One) in every religion. Wake up from your dream man! Politics is dirty that is why people like me and you are commenting on it and not working a politician. Who wants to get their hands dirty in the stinky garbage? Well, if Mr. Modi is doing "NOTHING" I am not sure what word would you use for what Congress did since independence. Look I will be the first one to vote if you want to replace Modi. You are willing to make a fool a leader of your country because you cannot deal with Modi's smartness. I disagree that Modi is fooling around, however say for argument sake I agree with you, I would still vote of Modi because at least other countries in competition will not be able to fool him, unlike Rahul. India Remains underdeveloped because of people like you. Who is unable to see the growth it is achieving. I am 100% confident that you will not vote, and if you do it will not be the right candidate. well you are concluding saying that you close your eye, so change my mind! I would vote anyone with open mind and eyes rather than a person who wants to play blind!
PUBLIC HAS NO OPTION TO SELECT BETTER THEN BJP, PUBLIC HAS TO SUPPORT BJP, FOR GROWTH OF COUNTRY. YES ONE THING I WANT TO SAY DONT BELIVE BLINDLY THAT ONE STRONG OPPOSITION SHOULD BE HERE WITH BJP OR OTHER- IT MAY BE DIFFICULT.
I think there would not be a black swan and the lok sabha 2019 elections might be just like the gujrat assembly elections 2017.Yes BJP will loose some seats but the loss wouldnt be enough to bring back some other party into power .But another important factor is also the upcoming year before the elections , the events leading upto the 2019 elections are very much important for BJP . The opposition is also not that strong at this moment .Yes BJP knows what happened in 2004 elections and would not repeat the same mistakes again , but I think there is no as such a wave that destroyed Congress in the 2014 lok sabha elections.Its pretty much early to call upon the election results , the upcoming months will have impact on who wins the lok sabha election , as of now the Modi government is much above the safe zone.
India could have been a world power within its first 50 years of Independence due to abundance of its natural as well as manpower resources , had it not embroiled in disputes with two of its major neighbours, China and Pakistan due to fault lines of country’s leadership at that time. The damage was accelerated due to appeasement of minorities in the country resulting in social strife. As regards social fabric is concerned’ it took a heavy toll due to reservation policies for few segments of the society at the cost of other poorer families which were not part of such reserved communities. All these factors led to mushroom growth of regional parties who wanted to “ make a hay when the Sun shines” They started indulging in corrupt economic practices and nation’s growth was nobody’s concern. A phase in Indian politics came when anybody could dream to be its PM because during that phase some people of non-identity and absolutely lacking in experience of heading world’s largest democracy became the Prime Ministers. They ate the cake and walked with too, bringing nation to shambles. It was , indeed, a God gift to the nation that a person like Narender Modi came as PM in 2014. He had a formidable task to put country on rails and gain place of respect in international domain. He has taken very tough decisions which will bring immense gains to the nation in due course, but those decisions have severely impacted corrupt politicians from all hues. I think if God has thought good for India in 2014, He will shower his blessings in 2019, despite every opposition party being hell-bent to remove Mr Modi. I think no where in history of a demcractic set up , all political parties , who could never see each other eye-to- eye, joined together just to oust a person from Prime Ministership. What is their moral? They claim to defeat Mr Modi and then decide who would be the PM out of them. If they have guts, they should decide on one name right now. But that they would not do, as no one wants to lose chance of becoming PM in their life time. Besides most of them are neither honest, nor capable and can not think of nation’s good due to their characteristics of regional politics.
Thanks to Modi, he has been successful in being able to unite all the opposition parties. The MahaGathBandhan is surely big one but the bandhan will not be very tight as the political parties have been staunch Rivals in the past, Additionally their leaders do not have PAN india appeal, neither Akhilesh, Mayawati, Mamata Naidu have pan india appeal and on top of that Congress did not join it. If BJP loses and this GathBandhan comes in power, it is understandable that half their time they will spend on keeping the coalition alive. The Other quarter on how their parties can benefit and how can they win the next elections. And only the remaining quarter on development of India. It is request to people, despite having HATE against Modi, vote for a stable government. Rahul Could be a Remote Control too, just like Manmohan.
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