Perhaps there's no country in the world where the novel coronavirus has had more of an immediate political impact than Israel. What three elections in barely a year could not accomplish -- the formation of a government -- a virus could.
But Covid-19 had help from a patriotic and risk-averse Benny Gantz, who ran last year, as leader of the Blue and White party, against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party.
Gantz handed Netanyahu a near-perfect arrangement that will allow him to remain the most powerful political figure in Israel for the next 18 months, if not beyond.
Unlike for most leaders in the world, for Netanyahu Covid-19 presented both a challenge and an opportunity. He rose to the first and exploited the second.
In the wake of Israel's March 2 election -- the latest of three in a year's time, after the first two failed to produce a determinative outcome -- Netanyahu again lacked enough seats to assemble a government. Worse still, his chief opponent, Gantz, had an option of putting one together -- albeit a minority government that would have relied on the support of the Joint List, composed of a number of Israel's Arab parties, an arrangement even some in his own Blue and White party were dead against.
Enter the virus. Israel has now turned the corner and begun to ease restrictions. But throughout March, there was real fear and great uncertainty. In a Ministry of Health scenario that went public, it was estimated that as many as 25,000 Israelis might succumb.
And in these circumstances, Netanyahu did what he does best: He plunged himself into the middle of the crisis, taking early proactive measures, including a national lockdown closing borders; banning travel; and in news conferences became the pandemic fighter par excellence, instructing Israelis how to wash their hands and summoning up the dangers of the Spanish flu a century ago. Quarantined not once but twice, Netanyahu became the poster child for fighting the pandemic.
The grim reality of Covid-19 and Netanyahu's performance created a bad set of choices for Gantz. As Netanyahu burnished his image as a crisis manager, this was no time, the argument went, to focus on petty politics but on a national challenge.
The viability of a minority government was already looking untenable, and Gantz playing politics in a genuine national emergency would not have helped. He faced a choice between holding out for the highly uncertain prospects of a fourth election or accepting Netanyahu's offer of negotiations for a unity government. He chose the latter, and in doing so he went against his own commitment that he wouldn't serve under an indicted prime minister. He also fractured his own party in the process.
Under the new deal, Netanyahu will serve as prime minister for the next 18 months, at which point he and Gantz will switch, with the latter serving in that role for the next 18.
It's hard to exaggerate the magnitude of Netanyahu's win. Yes, he will go on trial May 24, facing accusations of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. Yet, even if he is convicted, the legal process might last as long as two years, with appeals. In the meantime, Netanyahu will remain Prime Minister for the next year and a half.
He's rehabbed his image, navigated the pandemic (in a population of nine million, as of now Israel has just 202 deaths), and now presides over a government with the endorsement of his chief rival, and even that of the head of the Labor party.
Even after the rotation, he will remain the effective "alternate" prime minister of a government where three quarters of its members have no real allegiance to Gantz. According to the deal, Netanyahu will even be allowed to remain in the prime minister's residence on Balfour Street in Jerusalem, after he stops being prime minister and Gantz takes over.
It's more than likely that when Gantz becomes prime minister, given Netanyahu's political skills and support by Israel's dominant right wing, he, not Gantz, will remain the most powerful and influential political figure in Israel.
On policy, Netanyahu's other accomplishment has been to create a new consensus on annexing parts of West Bank. The coalition agreed not to advance any non-Covid-19 legislation for six months -- except that after July 1, the government is free to introduce legislation advancing annexation.
If and when that happens depends on many things, including the view of the Trump administration, the work of a US-Israeli Joint Committee delineating borders and Netanyahu's calculation of how the Arab states -- most notably Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia -- and even a possible Joe Biden administration might view the matter. The key takeaway is that Netanyahu knows -- annexation or not -- that he will continue to have a hand in ensuring that any serious movement toward a two-state solution will remain closed for the season.
In Israeli politics, the old saw goes, you can be dead or dead and buried. Right now, Benjamin Netanyahu -- aka "the Magician" -- is neither. Against all odds, not only has he survived -- he's very much alive with a great many cards up his sleeve yet left to play.
Comments(1)
There was never a chance that Gantz could have formed a minority government. He only had 59 MK's (including all the Arab-Palestinian Knesset members). Gantz knew that a fourth election could only aid Netanyahu because the left in Israel has faded badly as it embraced anti-Zionist political forces. Gantz ditched the left and established himself as a true centrist. The two-state solution has become a dead letter. Without the Jordan River Valley -- as every military man and women knows -- Israel becomes indefensible. Gantz and Ashkenazi are no exceptions, either is Yaalon. The return of the Democrats to power in 2021 will mean that Biden will reimpose Obama's failed Iran strategy on sunset clauses, international inspections, missile advancement, conventional weapons sales and regional support for terrorist proxies. Lifting the sanctions against Iran will exacerbate an already fraying relationship between Israel and the US Democratic Party. In this type of climate, Bibi and his two generals will comprise a formable team in defense of Israeli interests. The ugly truth is: the US Democratic Party hasn't had a coherent Middle East policy since the Obama-Iran appeasement began nearly a decade ago. Unlike the US conventional liberal wisdom believes, Netanyhu, Gantz and Ashkenazi will work as a successful team. In Israel, security comes before everything else. This is precisely why the Palestinians demand the return of the entire West Bank and a border with Jordan. Unlike many in the US, Israel's enemies understand the vital geographic necessity of the West Bank heights. No country can defend itself with a width of a mere nine miles consisting entirely of lowlands. Hence, the death of the two-state solution is a good thing. In this time of pandemic, climate change and global economic chaos, one would think that world leaders could begin to think out-of-the-box. So far I've heard nothing from Biden (or his supporters) which engenders confidence that it has any new and exciting ideas for the future of the Middle East. Meanwhile, another round of Iran appeasement could become a strategic catastrophe for the US. Two short years after a Biden victory, the US media will be once again consumed with who will be the next US president. Unless the Democrats play their card right; Iran policy will probably become a huge Republican issue. By the November 2022 election, Biden will be a lame duck and his party will be responsible for what happens with his Iran policy.
Comment Policy
Comments that include profanity, personal attacks, or other inappropriate material will be removed. Additionally, entries that are unsigned or contain "signatures" by someone other than the actual author will be removed. Finally, steps will be taken to block users who violate any of the posting standards, terms of use, privacy policies, or any other policies governing this site. You are fully responsible for the content that you post.