• Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Europe logoCarnegie lettermark logo
EUNATO
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Judy Dempsey"
  ],
  "type": "commentary",
  "blog": "Strategic Europe",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Europe"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Eastern Europe",
    "Russia",
    "Ukraine",
    "Western Europe",
    "Europe"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Democracy",
    "Security",
    "Military",
    "Foreign Policy",
    "EU"
  ]
}
Strategic Europe logo

Source: Getty

Commentary
Strategic Europe

Ukraine’s Defense Dilemma

No matter how Ukraine’s interim government reacts to pro-Russian provocations and violence in the East of the country, Kiev’s actions will be exploited by the Kremlin.

Link Copied
By Judy Dempsey
Published on Apr 14, 2014
Strategic Europe

Blog

Strategic Europe

Strategic Europe offers insightful analysis, fresh commentary, and concrete policy recommendations from some of Europe’s keenest international affairs observers.

Learn More

Just days before U.S., EU, Ukrainian, and Russian diplomats meet in Geneva to discuss the crisis in Ukraine, pro-Russian militiamen are rushing to establish facts on the ground in Eastern parts of the country. Their actions are creating a hugely difficult dilemma for Kiev.

On April 12 in the towns of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, close to the Russian border, well-armed pro-Russian gunmen seized government buildings and police stations. They also set up barricades in the towns, with little resistance from the local security forces.

The men then tore down the Ukrainian flag, hoisted the Russian one, and read out a declaration of independence, following the template of separatists in the Crimean peninsula. There is little doubt that the Kremlin is behind some of these militias as it tries to destabilize Ukraine before the country votes for a new president in May. “This instability was written and choreographed in and by Russia,” said Samantha Power, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

Until recently, Ukraine’s interim government displayed extraordinary self-restraint—too much, some would argue, given the challenge to Ukraine’s very existence as a single, independent country.

But by April 13, Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov had clearly had enough. He deployed special forces under the command of the interior and defense ministries. The attacks in the country’s East were “a display of external aggression from Russia,” Avakov said.

Indeed, Russia has maneuvered its neighbor into a dangerous no-win situation. If the Ukrainian authorities had continued doing nothing, Russia would have accused them of failing to restore order and defend the Russian minority in Eastern Ukraine (as if Russians hadn’t provoked the violence in the first place). In that case, Russia might have engineered an “invitation” to enter Ukraine and protect the ethnic Russians.

Yet now that the Ukrainian government is trying to defend the country’s integrity and end the violence, Moscow will accuse Kiev of threatening or even attacking the ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine. Again, the next step could be for Russia to be “invited” to send help.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is eager to exploit Kiev’s dilemma. “Ukraine was demonstrating its inability to take responsibility for the fate of the country,” he said. At the same time, Lavrov warned that any use of force against Russian speakers “would undermine the potential for cooperation,” including during the talks in Geneva, scheduled for April 17.

In parallel to its provocations on the ground, Russia has already mapped out its plans for Ukraine. It wants a federal model for the country. That would reduce the role of the central authorities and give the regions more autonomy in a way that Moscow could exploit at Kiev’s expense.

Russia also wants Ukraine to remain neutral, which would prevent the country from joining NATO. Russia, in short, is insisting on telling another country how it should be governed and what political direction it should take.

It is well known that several European countries, including Germany, do not want Ukraine to join NATO. Nevertheless, it is staggering and shameful to see how European countries are allowing Russia to set Ukraine’s security and political agenda.

NATO, for its part, has taken an unusually robust stance by openly criticizing the Kremlin. It has rushed to bolster the defenses of its Eastern European members, while also pledging to help train Ukraine’s armed forces.

Ukraine, NATO, and the EU do not want a military confrontation with Russia. But nor does Ukraine want to see further parts of its territory brought under Russian control. That is exactly what Ukraine’s acting President Oleksandr Turchynov said on April 13, when he stated that he would not allow a repetition of what happened in Crimea.

As it is, Ukraine and the West have ceded Crimea to Russia. That must surely have boosted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s confidence to try and grab further bits of Ukraine.

With Crimea signed away, the West has to find ways to defend the rest of Ukraine. As difficult as that may be and as much as European countries fear the cost of serious economic sanctions, there is no choice. Europe’s governments, already wobbly over Ukraine, cannot allow Russia to reshape borders as it wants. Ultimately, this is about Europe making a choice: defending democracy, security, and borders, or giving in to Putin’s brand of politics.

About the Author

Judy Dempsey

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe

Judy Dempsey is a nonresident senior fellow at Carnegie Europe

    Recent Work

  • Commentary
    Europe Needs to Hear What America is Saying

      Judy Dempsey

  • Commentary
    Babiš’s Victory in Czechia Is Not a Turning Point for European Populists

      Judy Dempsey

Judy Dempsey
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Judy Dempsey
DemocracySecurityMilitaryForeign PolicyEUEastern EuropeRussiaUkraineWestern EuropeEurope

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Strategic Europe

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Taking the Pulse: Are Western Democracies Failing Free Speech?

    The battle over free speech has taken center stage since U.S. Vice President JD Vance accused Europe of censorship. From travel bans to social media regulation, especially around the Israel-Palestine conflict, are liberal democratic governments weaponizing free speech?

      • Rym Momtaz

      Rym Momtaz, ed.

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    In the Middle East, Europeans Bow Down to the United States

    Europe seems to have accepted its sidelining in the Middle East. The EU must reassert its support for the international rules-based order and step up engagement.

      • Rym Momtaz

      Rym Momtaz

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Europe Should Not Let Nuclear Nonproliferation Die

    Amid uncertainty caused by the Iran war, the global drive for nonproliferation has stalled. With Europe diplomatically marginalized and countries reassessing their nuclear options, efforts to curb the spread of nuclear weapons risk becoming irrelevant.

      • Jane Darby Menton

      Jane Darby Menton

  • Europe flags citizens demonstration
    Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    EU Enlargement Forgets Europeans

    Preparing candidate countries for EU membership is no longer enough. As the enlargement process becomes a reality, the union must also prepare its own societies.

      Iliriana Gjoni

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Taking the Pulse: Was it Right to Boycott Eurovision?

    Five countries staged the biggest political boycott in Eurovision history over Israel’s participation. With the FIFA World Cup and other sporting or cultural touchstones on the horizon, are boycotts effective?

      • Rym Momtaz

      Rym Momtaz, ed.

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
Carnegie Europe logo, white
Rue du Congrès, 151000 Brussels, Belgium
  • Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
  • Projects
  • Events
  • Contact
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Gender Equality Plan
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.